I hate to say I told you so, but… I told you so.
According to a USA Today analysis of the latest federal highway data, despite the addition of one million drivers to the nation’s roads and streets since 2005, vehicle miles driven in February declined 1.9 percent year over year in February 2006 before rebounding slightly for a 0.3 percent year-over-year gain in March. That’s the sharpest cutback in 26 years, and a marked contrast to the 2.7 percent average annual increase between 1985 and 2005.
Even if total vehicle miles driven managed to squeeze out incremental gains last year, the VHD per motorist declined.
USA Today cited several economic and demographic factors:
• Gas prices. Seven of 10 Americans are combining trips and taking other steps to reduce driving.
• Public transportation. More people took public transit last year than at any time in 49 years. “We’re seeing suburban locations create new transit systems,” says William Millar, president of the American Public Transportation Association. “They’re expanding into areas that never thought they needed transit because they could do everything by car.”
• Demographics. Two generations ago, a significant percentage of women did not drive. As they women took to the roads over the past few decades, the percentage of the population with a drivers license increased steadily. Today, most women drive. The surge in women drivers has leveled off. Meanwhile, the population is aging, and old people drive less.
• Urban revitalization. Many Americans, particularly young, upwardly mobile singles, are moving back into the city, where there are more transportation options and distances between destinations are shorter than in the suburbs.
I cited three of these four factors (I didn’t pay sufficient attention to mass transit) a couple of years ago when I critiqued the assumptions of the VTrans2025 report written by the Warner administration, which projected relentless traffic increases over the next 20 years and a $108 billion shortfall in transportation funding to meet the demand. The increases in VMD of the past 25 years are economically and demographically unsustainable, and we should not be basing public policy on outmoded assumptions.
(Hat tip to Larry Gross for pointing out this story.)