Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

26 Years of Uninterrupted Driving Growth Come to a Screeching Halt

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by

James A. Bacon
in

I hate to say I told you so, but… I told you so.

According to a USA Today analysis of the latest federal highway data, despite the addition of one million drivers to the nation’s roads and streets since 2005, vehicle miles driven in February declined 1.9 percent year over year in February 2006 before rebounding slightly for a 0.3 percent year-over-year gain in March. That’s the sharpest cutback in 26 years, and a marked contrast to the 2.7 percent average annual increase between 1985 and 2005.

Even if total vehicle miles driven managed to squeeze out incremental gains last year, the VHD per motorist declined.

USA Today cited several economic and demographic factors:

• Gas prices. Seven of 10 Americans are combining trips and taking other steps to reduce driving.

• Public transportation. More people took public transit last year than at any time in 49 years. “We’re seeing suburban locations create new transit systems,” says William Millar, president of the American Public Transportation Association. “They’re expanding into areas that never thought they needed transit because they could do everything by car.”

• Demographics. Two generations ago, a significant percentage of women did not drive. As they women took to the roads over the past few decades, the percentage of the population with a drivers license increased steadily. Today, most women drive. The surge in women drivers has leveled off. Meanwhile, the population is aging, and old people drive less.

• Urban revitalization. Many Americans, particularly young, upwardly mobile singles, are moving back into the city, where there are more transportation options and distances between destinations are shorter than in the suburbs.

I cited three of these four factors (I didn’t pay sufficient attention to mass transit) a couple of years ago when I critiqued the assumptions of the VTrans2025 report written by the Warner administration, which projected relentless traffic increases over the next 20 years and a $108 billion shortfall in transportation funding to meet the demand. The increases in VMD of the past 25 years are economically and demographically unsustainable, and we should not be basing public policy on outmoded assumptions.

(Hat tip to Larry Gross for pointing out this story.)

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6 responses to “26 Years of Uninterrupted Driving Growth Come to a Screeching Halt”

  1. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    You are dreaming.

    Of course more people have used transit than ever before. We are spendin far mor to subidize their use than ever before.

    Granted, you could make (and have made) the same argument agianst auto usage: it is highly subsidized: no wonder it is popular.

    Let’s go throuh the list.

    Gas prices-

    Undoubtedly gas prices will hange habits: score one for (really) higher gas taxes.

    The travel industry has recently stated that gas prices of $3 per allon would not significantly reduce travel plans, but gas prices of $3.50 would.

    That is for occasional travel. The equation for everyday, commuter travel might be a lot different.

    Public transport-

    More people used public transport last year. OK, more people had sex last year, too. Except the difference is that peoiple were not subsidized for having sex.

    “They’re expanding into areas that never thought they needed transit because they could do everything by car.”

    Nonsense. Nearly everyone who uses public transit also uses automobiles.

    -Demographics

    Here, I agree. We will not hae more women driving in the future, and older people drive less. We should re-adjust the forcasts, based ond demographics – and on verifiable research.

    – Urban revitalization.

    Nonsense. Go see how many of those young, upwardly mobile singles and coupeles, are actually buying in the city. I have vey good and upwardly mobile renters, but I don’t expect them to buy.

    Yes, They commute less than I do. They also earn less. On the other hand, my tenants also make far more out-of-town rips than I do.

    Lets suppose I commute forty miles, and they commute ten.

    Then let’s suppose they make a 600 mile trip three times a year, and aimake a 500 mile trip twice a year.

    Who contributes more to congestion?

    My answer would be that it depends on who is commuting closer to the job centers.

  2. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    This is a long distance between a screeching halt, and a blip on the curve.

    You do yourself an injustice, by making such an unsubstantiated, and unverified claim.

    As a scientist, my supervisor would have grilled me for such a claim.

    Let’s look at the same date ten and 20 years from now.

  3. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Let’s face it.

    The real question isn’t whethe we drive less (except from an environmental perspective). The question is how much waste we endure in the proces.

    My last job assignment was 55 miles away. My current job assinment is 37 milew away.

    On my last assignment, I averaged 42 MPG on my car, and it cost $230 a month on top of that for public transit. If you count the supposed subsdy for public transit, the real cost was $690.

    On my new assignment, it takes one hour, and 1 minutes less (each way) to get to work. I get 48 MPG (actual). and I save $230 out of my pocket, and $460 out of the public pocket.

    Am I supposed to feel bad about this, just because I get free parking? (And a higher salary)?

    Yep. I cut my commuting by almost one third. Does that have anyting to do with demgraphics, gas prices, or urban revitalization?

    No.

    Does it have anything to do with public transportation? You bet. It waw expensive, slow, crowded, and inconvenient. And worst of all, it was paid for by someone else.

    Yet, I am only one data point.

    Jim Bacon could be right.

    I just don;t happen to think so.

  4. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    is the data… uniform… nationwide?

    If it is.. Ray may doing what he I feel he sometimes does… believing that his experience is representative of the bigger issue.

    But … I’m suspicious always of any study.. that says something is due to a “combination of factors” and the individual factors – contributions to the aggregate are not addressed.

    For instance – gasoline at $4 a gallon will have a tremendous effect – not on someone like Ray but for that guy driving that SUV 50 miles to Fredericksburg SOLO everyday.

    Ditto if congestion gets to the point where a predicted arrival time is no longer a sure thing – no matter how early one starts their respective commute.

    Then we will have congestion tolls – which again.. for someone driving 50 miles… a $15 toll in each direction WILL have impacts.

    Ray sez that none of these things will affect him. Probably True – but these factors will affect others – and probably will affect those that driver further each day.. SOLO at rush hour.. than say folks like Ray that drive shorter distance and may (I’m guessing) be more of a “student” of rush hour and various alternate routes.

    I took a little county tour yesterday… (reminding folks I live 50 miles south of NoVa) and it was a shocking revelation because of the large.. number of “for sale” signs on homes.. many almost brand new .. and many with “reduced” on them also.

    So .. if this study is nationwide AND there is a general downturn in VMT per capita.. then I believe it is real.

    But I agree with Ray in terms of longer term prospects of VMT staying down or going down even more… I’m gonna have to see it.. before I’m convinced – and if another study comes out in the meantime contradicting this one.. who will be suprised? not me.

  5. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Guys, I’m not suggesting that growth in Vehicle Miles Driven has come to a *permanent* halt. I don’t believe that for a minute. But I think we need to prepare for the possibility that growth in VMD has entered a slower long-term trajectory than in the past 20 years. If VMD per capita increases only 0.5 percent per year instead of 1.0 percent, that makes a humongous difference in traffic volumes over the next 20 years (more than 10 percent)!

  6. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    JB – agree.

    It’s possible that the downturn is even more profound than it appears – both in the trend and in the reasons behind the trend.

    VMD, VMT… per capita is .. has become.. a key metric…

    it’s used by DOTs and MPOs to determine the level and scope of improvements that will be needed for a region

    .. but here’s another thought also – investors in TOLL roads may also be looking at this metric… , in part, to determine the prospects for increased traffic growth…and if VMT is actually not going to grow as fast – it may well affect the financial aspects of toll roads since one of the main differences between public toll roads and private toll roads is that public toll roads usually look at 30 year timelines (usually the time period that states can finance road projects) vs private investors which are looking at 50-100 year horizons.

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