Enrollment Trends Mixed for Out-of-State Students

Admissions of out-of-state students at public, four-year Virginia higher-ed institutions was down this year.

Enrollment change at Virginia public four-year institutions, fall 2016. Admissions of out-of-state students was down.Data source: SCHEV

Enrollment increased modestly at Virginia’s public four-year institutions this academic year, but the number of new undergraduate, out-of-state students declined by 5%, Tod Massa, director of policy research, reported to the State Council on Higher Education in Virginia (SCHEV) today.

Normally, the precise mix of in-state and out-of-state students at Virginia’s public universities is an arcane matter of little interest to anyone outside of SCHEV and the universities themselves. But this year is different. Some state legislators are irate about runaway tuition increases and just about everything else about the way Virginia’s universities are operated. Del. David Albo, R-Springfield, has introduced a bill, HB 1410, which would require 75% of the undergraduate students at state universities (excepting only Norfolk State University, Virginia State University and Virginia Military Institute) to be comprised of Virginia residents.

The bill would impact three universities below the 75% threshold: James Madison University (72% in-state), the University of Virginia (66%) and the College of William & Mary (62%).

And that’s just for starters. Albo’s bill also would prohibit Virginia public institutions of higher learning from using tuition revenue from Virginia students for financial aid, and would allow no more than 5% of non-Virginians’ tuition revenue to provide financial assistance to non-Virginia students. Such restrictions would undermine the business model of institutions like the University of Virginia that use higher tuition revenue to fulfill a promise not to turn away any student for reasons of financial need.

Members of the SCHEV board are taking Albo’s bill seriously. Revelations last year that the University of Virginia had cobbled together a “strategic investment fund,” which is capable of generating $100 million in revenue, stirred a backlash. UVa officials, critics charged, had kept the revenue source under wraps while jacking up tuition and seeking more money from the General Assembly.

Legislators have long been concerned about the ratio of in-state to out-of-state students, especially in Virginia’s elite universities. Admitting more out-of-state students displaces in-state students, the thinking goes. Massa’s enrollment statistics gave ammo to both sides of the controversy. On the one hand, the number of continuing out-of-state students increased by 367 this  year and the number of new out-of-state transfer students increased by 72. On the other hand, the number of first-time out-of-staters fell by 377. The net gain in out-of-state students was 62 out of some 216,000 graduate and undergraduate students.

The decrease in new out-of-staters was not an aberration. Massa suggested that Virginia institutions are suffering from “market challenges” — tough competition in an environment in which students and their families are pushing back against high tuitions. While Virginia enrollments rose slightly this year, they increased less than SCHEV had forecast. Financial aid is a big driver of student acceptance rates, and Albo’s legislation would limit the flexibility of Virginia universities to provide it.

Board members also fretted about unintended consequences of Albo’s legislation. On average, out-of-state students pay 160% of the average cost of education. In effect, they are subsidizing Virginia students. Capping the percentage of out-of-staters would pressure universities to increase the tuition of in-state students.

Update: SCHEV is following nearly two dozen bills in the General Assembly this session. You can view the key legislation at the council’s higher-education legislation tracker.