Credit: prescottenews

by James C. Sherlock

Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, and Del. Lashrecse Aird, D-Petersburg, contributed an op-ed titled Home health workers at risk without legislative action this morning in the Virginian-Pilot. They will be surprised to read that I agree with every word.

And that I would go farther.

Unintended consequences in the government economy

Lucas and Aird have authored a compelling, well-written narrative of the problems faced by home health workers and their employers under two Virginia programs that have not been reconciled:

  • the rise of the Virginia minimum wage from $7.25 an hour to $9.50 an hour, a 31% increase; and
  • the lack of a corresponding raise of the Medicaid reimbursement rate for home care workers.

As the legislators point out:

“Unless the 2021 General Assembly acts over the next several weeks, many Medicaid recipients could lose access to home care services provided by … tens of thousands of … home care workers.”

“Significantly raising the minimum wage without significantly increasing the Medicaid reimbursement rate creates another type of inequity, putting dollar-for-dollar pressure on home care agencies who provide care to Medicaid patients and good-paying jobs to care givers.”

“Without fully funding Medicaid rates for personal care services, it becomes financially unsustainable (bold mine) for home care agencies to provide services to Medicaid recipients.”

“We are encouraging our colleagues in the General Assembly to step up and fully fund Medicaid reimbursement rates for home care workers. Do it for the recipients and the caregivers.”

That cannot be allowed to happen. If the federal minimum wage is raised to $15 as is proposed, Medicaid reimbursement will have to be raised again.

But Medicaid is part of the government economy.

Additional Concerns
I have two concerns unaddressed in Sen. Lucas’ and Del. Aird’s excellent piece.

The first is the effects of minimum wage increases on the market economy and the second is the quality of Virginia’s home health industry itself.

Unintended consequences in the market economy

Senator Lucas and Del. Aird did a public service by raising the issue in the context of the government-funded economy. But there is one thing that jumps out at every reader.

What about all of the other businesses that exist in the market economy that employ minimum wage workers and upon whom a rise in the minimum wage puts “dollar-for-dollar pressure” on their ability to operate?

Those that are in a position to raise prices without loss of business will be fine.

Food producers, for example, will all have to raise prices and Americans will have to pay them. We will have to increase both government funding and philanthropy for food security programs to ensure that no American goes hungry as a result, but we can do that.

However, to the degree that America’s huge food export industry grows less competitive, it and its employees will suffer.  Same with any other industry that exports.

Obvious candidates for a potential inability to raise prices domestically to match labor cost increases are the enormous hospitality and restaurant industries.

No one has a line on his or her survival budget to go out for dinner or go on vacation to Virginia Beach. They want to, and it relaxes them, but they won’t do it instead of paying the electric bill.

So there will be losers, including millions of workers who stand to lose their jobs nationwide when a $15 minimum wage increases the costs of their labor beyond its economic value.

Those who advocate for minimum wage increases will need to consider and honestly and publicly expose the costs, not only in dollars but also in jobs, as well as the benefits of such actions.

That doesn’t mean that raising minimum wage can’t be a public policy, just that such actions have complex outcomes. The downsides of those actions for workers and businesses are often not vetted by their proponents in elected office, much less publicized in the shrinking and supportive press.

Sen. Lucas and Del. Aird are doing cleanup after exactly such a mistake.

Home health care quality inspections in Virginia

The op-ed addressed the availability but not the quality of home health care in Virginia.

Remember this response from the VDH FOIA officer that I published last year:

“The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Office of Licensure and Certification (OLC) is responsible for licensing and inspecting health care facilities in the Commonwealth of Virginia.”

“OLC’s overall situation with respect to funding and staffing has not improved since April 2017. Neither the current authorized staffing nor the current actual staffing allow OLC to meet its statutory and regulatory mandates. “

“The specific shortfalls affecting OLC are the lack of sufficient medical facilities inspectors (MFIs) to conduct state licensure inspections. “

“Even if OLC had every MFI vacancy filled, it would still not be enough to meet the statutorily prescribed 2-year interval between routine state licensure inspections.”

“OLC has calculated the number of licensed facilities that have exceeded the 2-year inspection interval:

  • Inpatient hospitals (IHs): 97.1%
    Outpatient surgical hospitals (OSHs): 86.4%
  • Hospice and hospice facilities: 74.1%
  • Home care organizations (HCOs): 88.2%
  • Nursing homes (NHs): 47.9%”

“OLC has calculated it would need at least 10 additional MFIs for IHs and OSHs, 13 additional MFIs for hospice and HCOs, and 3 additional MFIs for NHs in order to fully meet its statutory and regulatory mandates….”

So the Virginia Department of Health is short 13 positions for inspectors to carry out its responsibilities of ensuring home care organizations are managed, staffed, trained and operated in ways that ensure the safety of their patients.

Sen. Lucas is Chair of the Senate Education and Health Committee and a member of the Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee. Del. Aird is on both the House Health, Welfare and Institutions Committee and House Appropriations Committee.

They are perhaps the best positioned legislators in Virginia to fix the inspector shortfalls.

Authorize the additional OLC positions – all of them. It takes only an increase in the fees for those inspected, not a raid on the general fund, to fix the funding stream for OLC.

Appropriators can and should do both this year.


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Comments

85 responses to “Unintended Consequences of Minimum Wage Hikes”

  1. S. E. Warwick Avatar
    S. E. Warwick

    Those of us of a certain age remember pulling into a gas station where an attendant, often a teen aged boy working his first job, would pump your gas, clean your windshield, and take your payment. Now, we pump the gas and clean the windshield while machines do the rest. Fewer opportunities for youngsters to learn how to hold a job.

  2. You rich old white guys just don’t get it.
    If we raise the minimum wage to $500 per hour, every full time job will make everyone a millionaire and we can then tax the rich and fix the budget deficit.
    Did you not learn economics?
    In honor of our new President (for probably another month or so), let’s call it Bidenomics!

  3. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Are we sure they are complaining about the minimum wage? Aren’t they really asking that the state raise Medicaid reimbursements because of it? Have you looked to see what pending budget amendments would do that? I don’t think either of the authors would oppose raising the minimum to $15 for a second.

    Then, I had heard from other sources that there was such a push on from the home health care industry lobbying groups…..

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I know that they are not complaining about the minimum wage.

      I am taking advantage of the fact that they raised the issues of potential job losses and business failures in the Medicaid-funded part of the home health industry as a result of the minimum wage increase.

      They only concern themselves with unplanned effects on the government-funded economy – the failure to raise Medicaid reimbursements to match the minimum wage increase. I take the opportunity to point out that it is not only the government-funded economy that has that problem.

      I also take advantage of their emphasis on home health businesses and workers to point out that they are in prime positions to ensure that those businesses are properly inspected to help ensure their quality.

  4. S. E. Warwick Avatar
    S. E. Warwick

    Those of us of a certain age remember pulling into a gas station where an attendant, often a teen aged boy working his first job, would pump your gas, clean your windshield, and take your payment. Now, we pump the gas and clean the windshield while machines do the rest. Fewer opportunities for youngsters to learn how to hold a job.

  5. First,,, amen Publicus… raise the minimum wage so we can all be millionaires,,, just like living in Zimbabwe, ,,
    SECOND… these are not “Unintended Consequences”…
    Liberals may be basically stupid but they are dam well aware of the consequences of government establishing wage rates… This is basic economic 101….
    Bigger question is where does government, especially at the federal level, get the right to set wage rates,,, isn’t this supposed to be a free country..
    Walter Williams probably won’t be turning over in his grave, he wrote more than one article condemning the stupidity of government setting wage and many other rates and prices.. and he went to his grave knowing how stupid we are to be doing that sort of thing…

    1. Where in our traditions does the Princeps Civitatis get the right to declare himself Tribune of the People?

  6. You rich old white guys just don’t get it.
    If we raise the minimum wage to $500 per hour, every full time job will make everyone a millionaire and we can then tax the rich and fix the budget deficit.
    Did you not learn economics?
    In honor of our new President (for probably another month or so), let’s call it Bidenomics!

  7. What classic ineptitude. Did the legislature get a fiscal impact statement on the minimum wage bill? Did the fiscal impact statement address the impact of a higher minimum wage on (a) the state workforce, and (b) the Medicaid program? If so, did anybody pay attention?

  8. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Are we sure they are complaining about the minimum wage? Aren’t they really asking that the state raise Medicaid reimbursements because of it? Have you looked to see what pending budget amendments would do that? I don’t think either of the authors would oppose raising the minimum to $15 for a second.

    Then, I had heard from other sources that there was such a push on from the home health care industry lobbying groups…..

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      I know that they are not complaining about the minimum wage.

      I am taking advantage of the fact that they raised the issues of potential job losses and business failures in the Medicaid-funded part of the home health industry as a result of the minimum wage increase.

      They only concern themselves with unplanned effects on the government-funded economy – the failure to raise Medicaid reimbursements to match the minimum wage increase. I take the opportunity to point out that it is not only the government-funded economy that has that problem.

      I also take advantage of their emphasis on home health businesses and workers to point out that they are in prime positions to ensure that those businesses are properly inspected to help ensure their quality.

  9. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    We now have reached bottom in our intellectual understanding of why and how our country is coming apart perhaps irrevocable, all as I have been predicting on this website for a full decade. Let’s get serious for a change like Sherlock who is now rendering this website relevant to reality almost single handedly.

  10. “…there will be losers, including millions of workers who stand to lose their jobs nationwide when a $15 minimum wage increases the costs of their labor beyond its economic value.”

    On the one hand, yeah, minimum wage increases (let alone a doubling of the minimum wage) will have deleterious consequences up and down most verticals, and an outsized impact on certain currently high-profile sectors (restaurants and healthcare). Breaking eggs to make an omelet shouldn’t mean spraying batter across the counter, and doubling the minimum wage with little energy put toward funneling the unskilled into more remunerative industries is doing just that.

    On the other hand, it’s interesting how these conversations are playing out in conservative circles in light of other discussions on reshoring factories, vigorous industrial policy, etc. Until a few years ago the cold logic of capital markets was sacrosanct; now, a sizable portion of nominal free-marketers support government intervention in the economy on questions of vital national interest. If “stopping our small towns from dying” and giving working-class Americans the financial tools to succeed in the face of degree inflation/the knowledge economy are matters of vital national interest — as most BRos here seem to believe — then directly addressing the question of a minimum wage/living wage ought to be a worthy pursuit. Off the top of my head, combining it with effortful approaches to job training, rural broadband, rapid prototyping/SSM, and general infrastructure investments is a good way to go.

    Plus — and I’m just spitballing here — what if the minimum wage scaled with age? 16-20 at $7.25 an hour, 20-22 at 9something, 22-24 at 12something, and so forth? It’s not a total curative, but it seems to work in the direction we’d want it too.

    1. idiocracy Avatar

      If the minimum wage scaled with age..well, you already have companies who don’t want to hire older workers because they want too much money.

      Particularly common in the IT field, although they claim it’s because they think older workers are dinosaurs who don’t know modern technology.

      Been on the receiving end of that, when I was looking for job a few years ago.

      1. Too bad that half the country has a conniption anytime unionization arrangements come up. The ironic thing about works councils and labor co-determination is that it greatly lessens the need for active public intervention in private labor markets, but too many still see organized labor-in-itself and ham-fisted NLRB actions as essentially coterminous.

    2. VDOTyranny Avatar
      VDOTyranny

      No doubt many teenagers would appreciate the increase in beer money, but I doubt many adults of prime working age are competing for jobs with teenagers. If they are, those older adults would clearly benefit from job training.

  11. “…there will be losers, including millions of workers who stand to lose their jobs nationwide when a $15 minimum wage increases the costs of their labor beyond its economic value.”

    On the one hand, yeah, minimum wage increases (let alone a doubling of the minimum wage) will have deleterious consequences up and down most verticals, and an outsized impact on certain currently high-profile sectors (restaurants and healthcare). Breaking eggs to make an omelet shouldn’t mean spraying batter across the counter, and doubling the minimum wage with little energy put toward funneling the unskilled into more remunerative industries is doing just that.

    On the other hand, it’s interesting how these conversations are playing out in conservative circles in light of other discussions on reshoring factories, vigorous industrial policy, etc. Until a few years ago the cold logic of capital markets was sacrosanct; now, a sizable portion of nominal free-marketers support government intervention in the economy on questions of vital national interest. If “stopping our small towns from dying” and giving working-class Americans the financial tools to succeed in the face of degree inflation/the knowledge economy are matters of vital national interest — as most BRos here seem to believe — then directly addressing the question of a minimum wage/living wage ought to be a worthy pursuit. Off the top of my head, combining it with effortful approaches to job training, rural broadband, rapid prototyping/SSM, and general infrastructure investments is a good way to go.

    Plus — and I’m just spitballing here — what if the minimum wage scaled with age? 16-20 at $7.25 an hour, 20-22 at 9something, 22-24 at 12something, and so forth? It’s not a total curative, but it seems to work in the direction we’d want it too.

    1. idiocracy Avatar

      If the minimum wage scaled with age..well, you already have companies who don’t want to hire older workers because they want too much money.

      Particularly common in the IT field, although they claim it’s because they think older workers are dinosaurs who don’t know modern technology.

      Been on the receiving end of that, when I was looking for job a few years ago.

      1. Too bad that half the country has a conniption anytime unionization arrangements come up. The ironic thing about works councils and labor co-determination is that it greatly lessens the need for active public intervention in private labor markets, but too many still see organized labor-in-itself and ham-fisted NLRB actions as essentially coterminous.

    2. VDOTyranny Avatar
      VDOTyranny

      No doubt many teenagers would appreciate the increase in beer money, but I doubt many adults of prime working age are competing for jobs with teenagers. If they are, those older adults would clearly benefit from job training.

  12. First,,, amen Publicus… raise the minimum wage so we can all be millionaires,,, just like living in Zimbabwe, ,,
    SECOND… these are not “Unintended Consequences”…
    Liberals may be basically stupid but they are dam well aware of the consequences of government establishing wage rates… This is basic economic 101….
    Bigger question is where does government, especially at the federal level, get the right to set wage rates,,, isn’t this supposed to be a free country..
    Walter Williams probably won’t be turning over in his grave, he wrote more than one article condemning the stupidity of government setting wage and many other rates and prices.. and he went to his grave knowing how stupid we are to be doing that sort of thing…

    1. Where in our traditions does the Princeps Civitatis get the right to declare himself Tribune of the People?

  13. What classic ineptitude. Did the legislature get a fiscal impact statement on the minimum wage bill? Did the fiscal impact statement address the impact of a higher minimum wage on (a) the state workforce, and (b) the Medicaid program? If so, did anybody pay attention?

  14. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    There was a fiscal impact statement in the 2020 session. Because the provisions of the bill include the state, there was a detailed description of the projected impact on state agencies. The fiscal impact statement does not address the projected impact on private employers. The function of the fiscal impact statement has always been to project any fiscal impact on state agencies, not on local governments or the private sector. Here is the link to the FIS: https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?201+oth+HB395FER122+PDF

    I assume that the private sector made its concerns known and the projected impact of the bill on them during the committee debates on the bill.

    In the conference committee for the budget bill, the legislature provided an appropriation for the projected impact on state agencies; https://budget.lis.virginia.gov/amendment/2020/1/HB30/Introduced/CR/477/4c/

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      Any idea how the impact statement matches up with actual costs?

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        We will not know that until the minimum wage increases become effective and some time passes.

    2. sherlockj Avatar

      You are much more expert on Virginia legislative matters than I, but I will offer a idea for your comment.

      It is not too much to ask that politicians demand a full study of the effects of legislation, including minimum wage legislation, that is guaranteed to have far-reaching effects on the state.

      I offer that it is the kind of bill that should be introduced one year and voted on the next with the intervening months used to do a proper assessment, including a full vetting by noted economists. That would emulate the current requirements for health insurance legislation.

      I don’t take a position on how members or the Governor should vote once the information is available, but all of us should demand that no such legislation be introduced for final vote with just a very hasty preliminary assessment of its costs to the government only.

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        I agree with you. At the risk of being labeled an old fogy, in years past (20 or so years ago), the legislature would take time between sessions to conduct extensive analysis of complex bills or ones that could have a far-reaching effect. For various reasons, that does not happen now.

        There are a couple of exceptions. JLARC and the Crime Commission have professional staffs that conduct extensively researched analyses, although I have my doubts about the Crime Commission recently.

        However, the minimum wage issue has been around a long time. I think most members were aware of the ramifications of raising it. For example, the Commonwealth Institute produced the following report: https://www.thecommonwealthinstitute.org/2019/12/12/raising-the-wage-in-virginia-will-benefit-working-families/

        In contrast, the Chamber of Commerce has offered counter views. https://www.vachamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Minimum-Wage-Fact-Sheet-011619.pdf

  15. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    There was a fiscal impact statement in the 2020 session. Because the provisions of the bill include the state, there was a detailed description of the projected impact on state agencies. The fiscal impact statement does not address the projected impact on private employers. The function of the fiscal impact statement has always been to project any fiscal impact on state agencies, not on local governments or the private sector. Here is the link to the FIS: https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?201+oth+HB395FER122+PDF

    I assume that the private sector made its concerns known and the projected impact of the bill on them during the committee debates on the bill.

    In the conference committee for the budget bill, the legislature provided an appropriation for the projected impact on state agencies; https://budget.lis.virginia.gov/amendment/2020/1/HB30/Introduced/CR/477/4c/

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      Any idea how the impact statement matches up with actual costs?

    2. sherlockj Avatar

      You are much more expert on Virginia legislative matters than I, but I will offer a idea for your comment.

      It is not too much to ask that politicians demand a full study of the effects of legislation, including minimum wage legislation, that is guaranteed to have far-reaching effects on the state.

      I offer that it is the kind of bill that should be introduced one year and voted on the next with the intervening months used to do a proper assessment, including a full vetting by noted economists. That would emulate the current requirements for health insurance legislation.

      I don’t take a position on how members or the Governor should vote once the information is available, but all of us should demand that no such legislation be introduced for final vote with just a very hasty preliminary assessment of its costs to the government only.

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        I agree with you. At the risk of being labeled an old fogy, in years past (20 or so years ago), the legislature would take time between sessions to conduct extensive analysis of complex bills or ones that could have a far-reaching effect. For various reasons, that does not happen now.

        There are a couple of exceptions. JLARC and the Crime Commission have professional staffs that conduct extensively researched analyses, although I have my doubts about the Crime Commission recently.

        However, the minimum wage issue has been around a long time. I think most members were aware of the ramifications of raising it. For example, the Commonwealth Institute produced the following report: https://www.thecommonwealthinstitute.org/2019/12/12/raising-the-wage-in-virginia-will-benefit-working-families/

        In contrast, the Chamber of Commerce has offered counter views. https://www.vachamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Minimum-Wage-Fact-Sheet-011619.pdf

  16. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    We now have reached bottom in our intellectual understanding of why and how our country is coming apart perhaps irrevocable, all as I have been predicting on this website for a full decade. Let’s get serious for a change like Sherlock who is now rendering this website relevant to reality almost single handedly.

  17. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Easier to raise a bottom wage than lower the price of everything.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      Your wage goes up and you lose your job the next day. Classic good news bad news situation.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        And with whom do they replace you at a lower wage if the wage they paid you was the lowest possible?

        Or are you saying that all minimum wage jobs are unnecessary jobs?

        I would venture to guess that a greater percentage of $100,000/yr jobs are unnecessary than the percentage of $7/hr jobs.

        1. What tends to happen when minimum wages rise beyond the value of labor is that: Employers institute non-wage-based compensation schemes that route around the whole issue.

          Just wait until McConnell and Schumer are nodding sagely at the passage of some federal California Proposition 22 act. If you raise the wage floor without giving labor a means to adapt — let alone real leverage over capital — service sector employers will switch en masse to independent contractor arrangements. Goodbye bargaining, goodbye benefits. Seriously, check out what happened with Prop 22 — it’s practically billionaire erotica.

          1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            But, OTOH, employer-based benefits also makes for a less mobile workforce, to wit: healthcare.

            I dunno, perhaps the eventual solution will be strong unions, licensing, and an all-1099 employee base. I wonder the downside.

            I can’t say for sure, what’s the right thing to do but I know that if I wish to avoid doing the wrong thing just avoid the GOP solutions.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar

            One is whether the benefits are entirely and solely a benefit provided only by the employer and not also a government-based benefit to employers to then provide their employees.

            Health insurance is by far the biggest and those it is perceived to be a benefit the employer is offering, it’s really more of a government-based entitledment.

            Health insurance is purchased with pre-tax income, No FICA, Fed or State tax on the money used to pay for health insurance – in effect they are paying 60% of the actual cost with the Fed taxpayers picking up the 40%.

            Folks who are self-employed get no such benefit, they have to buy their insurance with taxed money but they can claim it as an expense.

            If that insurance is ACA or other market insurance, then it is portable whereas the employer-provided is largely not.

            If we made one change in the tax law in that whatever the rules were, it applied equally to any employee or any self-employed – AND it was portable – the whole dynamic about “pay” , taxes, job-lock, would change dramatically and many employers would end with much stiffer competition for labor.

            It’s the government that causes this by not only giving significant tax reductions but also two other very important things:

            1. – guaranteed issue – regardless of pre-existing conditions.
            2. – largely equalized premiums no matter your health or age.

            The ACA follows 1. but it actually does adjust premiums for age and cigarette smoking.

            Employer-provided insurance significantly affects the economy in many myriad ways and actually Conservative organizations like Heritage and Cato have advocated changes, including getting rid of it or taxing it, etc.

        2. sherlockj Avatar

          See my comment to Dick Sizemore above for my position on how the General Assembly should handle minimum wage legislation and other legislation that is sure to have far-reaching and relatively opaque effects on the economy.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            I did… am following…but I’m sure you know that economists disagree about impacts which can cascade through the economy and not be the only change ongoing either.

            The chained CPI discussions…

            An interesting thing… In January , Social Security often gets “adjusted” upward by some percentage… and often, at the same time, the Medicare premiums that are deducted from Social Security – go up some amount. They don’t precisely offset of course but here is where one thing is a cost of living increase and the other, one of those increases!

            So.. stuff like this is going on at the same time an increase in minimum wage is so how can a proper study really be done when you can’t hold the other variables constant when trying to isolate the impact to just that change?

            Economists disagree strongly depending on the economist, no?

  18. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Easier to raise a bottom wage than lower the price of everything.

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      Your wage goes up and you lose your job the next day. Classic good news bad news situation.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        And with whom do they replace you at a lower wage if the wage they paid you was the lowest possible?

        Or are you saying that all minimum wage jobs are unnecessary jobs?

        I would venture to guess that a greater percentage of $100,000/yr jobs are unnecessary than the percentage of $7/hr jobs.

        1. What tends to happen when minimum wages rise beyond the value of labor is that: Employers institute non-wage-based compensation schemes that route around the whole issue.

          Just wait until McConnell and Schumer are nodding sagely at the passage of some federal California Proposition 22 act. If you raise the wage floor without giving labor a means to adapt — let alone real leverage over capital — service sector employers will switch en masse to independent contractor arrangements. Goodbye bargaining, goodbye benefits. Seriously, check out what happened with Prop 22 — it’s practically billionaire erotica.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            One is whether the benefits are entirely and solely a benefit provided only by the employer and not also a government-based benefit to employers to then provide their employees.

            Health insurance is by far the biggest and those it is perceived to be a benefit the employer is offering, it’s really more of a government-based entitledment.

            Health insurance is purchased with pre-tax income, No FICA, Fed or State tax on the money used to pay for health insurance – in effect they are paying 60% of the actual cost with the Fed taxpayers picking up the 40%.

            Folks who are self-employed get no such benefit, they have to buy their insurance with taxed money but they can claim it as an expense.

            If that insurance is ACA or other market insurance, then it is portable whereas the employer-provided is largely not.

            If we made one change in the tax law in that whatever the rules were, it applied equally to any employee or any self-employed – AND it was portable – the whole dynamic about “pay” , taxes, job-lock, would change dramatically and many employers would end with much stiffer competition for labor.

            It’s the government that causes this by not only giving significant tax reductions but also two other very important things:

            1. – guaranteed issue – regardless of pre-existing conditions.
            2. – largely equalized premiums no matter your health or age.

            The ACA follows 1. but it actually does adjust premiums for age and cigarette smoking.

            Employer-provided insurance significantly affects the economy in many myriad ways and actually Conservative organizations like Heritage and Cato have advocated changes, including getting rid of it or taxing it, etc.

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            But, OTOH, employer-based benefits also makes for a less mobile workforce, to wit: healthcare.

            I dunno, perhaps the eventual solution will be strong unions, licensing, and an all-1099 employee base. I wonder the downside.

            I can’t say for sure, what’s the right thing to do but I know that if I wish to avoid doing the wrong thing just avoid the GOP solutions.

        2. sherlockj Avatar

          See my comment to Dick Sizemore above for my position on how the General Assembly should handle minimum wage legislation and other legislation that is sure to have far-reaching and relatively opaque effects on the economy.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            I did… am following…but I’m sure you know that economists disagree about impacts which can cascade through the economy and not be the only change ongoing either.

            The chained CPI discussions…

            An interesting thing… In January , Social Security often gets “adjusted” upward by some percentage… and often, at the same time, the Medicare premiums that are deducted from Social Security – go up some amount. They don’t precisely offset of course but here is where one thing is a cost of living increase and the other, one of those increases!

            So.. stuff like this is going on at the same time an increase in minimum wage is so how can a proper study really be done when you can’t hold the other variables constant when trying to isolate the impact to just that change?

            Economists disagree strongly depending on the economist, no?

  19. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    It seems that Sen. Lucas is not telling us the whole story. As she points out, the 2020 General Assembly raised the Medicaid rate for home health care workers by 7 percent. But she does not tell us what the base rate is. She implies that it is the minimum wage, but does not tell us that for sure.

    The 2020 action by the legislature provided $65 million for the biennium to raise the rate for home health care workers by 5 percent in the first year and 2 per cent in the second year. The explanatory note for the amendment (budget bullet) tied the appropriation directly to the increase in the minimum wage. https://budget.lis.virginia.gov/amendment/2020/1/HB30/Introduced/CR/313/16c/

    By the way, Sen. Lucas has submitted a budget amendment this year to raise the rate for agency-directed home health workers to $22 per hour and $14.50 per hour for consumer-directed workers. The increase in the minimum wage to $15 per hour is not effective until July 1, 2026. The second year cost of her amendment would be $197 million. https://budget.lis.virginia.gov/amendment/2021/1/SB1100/Introduced/MR/313/1s/

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      $197 million for increased salaries, nothing for inspections to ensure the workers know what they are doing.

      Welcome to the Virginia.

      People die unnecessarily, but at least our elected representatives don’t lose any sleep over it because (some) dead people don’t vote and none of them make campaign contributions.

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        The Governor’s budget request includes almost $60,000 for VDH to enable the agency to draw down $474,300 in federal CARES matching funds to support the activities of its Office of Licensure and Certification. Here is VDH’s budget request providing the details for its request. http://publicreports.dpb.virginia.gov/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=OB_DocView&Param1=65986560

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          Do we know if it is VDH itself physically deliverying the vaccine?

        2. sherlockj Avatar

          True, Dick, but that is cost reimbursement, not FTEs going forward. I does not move the needle on OLC personnel shortages.

          1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            You are correct; this action does not authorize additional positions. However, VDH argued in its submission that it needed additional funding to pay for the positions that it already has because it has had to run vacancies to produce the funding needed for other operating costs. If an agency can’t fill the positions it already has, it makes little sense to provide additional positions.

          2. sherlockj Avatar

            Your last sentence is a non sequitur.

            “If an agency can’t fill the positions it already has, it makes little sense to provide additional positions.”

            The problem was a state funding shortfall, not an inability to hire staff when funds are available. The GA needs to fund the additional inspector positions.

    2. sherlockj Avatar

      Thanks for unearthing that info, Dick.

  20. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    It seems that Sen. Lucas is not telling us the whole story. As she points out, the 2020 General Assembly raised the Medicaid rate for home health care workers by 7 percent. But she does not tell us what the base rate is. She implies that it is the minimum wage, but does not tell us that for sure.

    The 2020 action by the legislature provided $65 million for the biennium to raise the rate for home health care workers by 5 percent in the first year and 2 per cent in the second year. The explanatory note for the amendment (budget bullet) tied the appropriation directly to the increase in the minimum wage. https://budget.lis.virginia.gov/amendment/2020/1/HB30/Introduced/CR/313/16c/

    By the way, Sen. Lucas has submitted a budget amendment this year to raise the rate for agency-directed home health workers to $22 per hour and $14.50 per hour for consumer-directed workers. The increase in the minimum wage to $15 per hour is not effective until July 1, 2026. The second year cost of her amendment would be $197 million. https://budget.lis.virginia.gov/amendment/2021/1/SB1100/Introduced/MR/313/1s/

    1. sherlockj Avatar

      $197 million for increased salaries, nothing for inspections to ensure the workers know what they are doing.

      Welcome to the Virginia.

      People die unnecessarily, but at least our elected representatives don’t lose any sleep over it because (some) dead people don’t vote and none of them make campaign contributions.

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        The Governor’s budget request includes almost $60,000 for VDH to enable the agency to draw down $474,300 in federal CARES matching funds to support the activities of its Office of Licensure and Certification. Here is VDH’s budget request providing the details for its request. http://publicreports.dpb.virginia.gov/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=OB_DocView&Param1=65986560

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          Do we know if it is VDH itself physically deliverying the vaccine?

        2. sherlockj Avatar

          True, Dick, but that is cost reimbursement, not FTEs going forward. I does not move the needle on OLC personnel shortages.

          1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            You are correct; this action does not authorize additional positions. However, VDH argued in its submission that it needed additional funding to pay for the positions that it already has because it has had to run vacancies to produce the funding needed for other operating costs. If an agency can’t fill the positions it already has, it makes little sense to provide additional positions.

          2. sherlockj Avatar

            Your last sentence is a non sequitur.

            “If an agency can’t fill the positions it already has, it makes little sense to provide additional positions.”

            The problem was a state funding shortfall, not an inability to hire staff when funds are available. The GA needs to fund the additional inspector positions.

    2. sherlockj Avatar

      Thanks for unearthing that info, Dick.

  21. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    As my Republican friends constantly remind me, “No such thing as a free lunch.” If you want to have poor people, you’re just going to have to pay for them.

    1. As is, the poor subsist on hyper-abstracted debt arrangements and (literally) the dross of industrial agriculture. Calling them marginal as-is would be far too generous. Keeping unskilled labor pools desperate, dependent on, and pliant to the whims of capital is baked into the whole damn cake.

      Bumping the wage floor without addressing any other aspect of working folks’ status in the market is going to backfire severely. Under current employment arrangements, sure, employers are speaking out against wage increases, but they have the leverage to negate the wage question entirely by moving to contracts.

      I paid part of my way through school working on the other side of this issue — employers know damn well what they’re doing. They’ll Uberize the whole service sector if they have to.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        Uberizing the entire workforce only works if they also prevent unions or organization through legislation, AND convince the average idiots that unions are bad for them.

        Not insurmountable objectives. Average idiots are just that, and governments are gutless and easily purchased, as just seen.

        I like looking over my shoulder every once in awhile. The Republicans and free marketeers have told me for 50 years that Social Security was unsustainable, that Medicare would destroy medicine, that minimum wages would devastate the economy.

        How many times can they be so wrong for so long, and still say they are the economic experts?

        1. It’s funny that you put it like that. I agree — Republicans qua the Republican Party are variously hucksters, [snake] oil salesmen, and war profiteers. But the thing is, Prop 22 passed in deep blue California. Not a peep from the CDP, Harris, Feinstein, or other Democrat stakeholders; IIRC the highest-profile figure in California media to speak out against it was Gloria Allred of all people.

          There are good Democrats out there, but the party infrastructure — one much more vital and influential than that of their GOP counterparts — is fundamentally a small-minded, professional-class entity beholden to major corporate interests. These are the sorts of people who only began worrying about Chinese competitiveness when they researched the supply chains of their solar portfolio. Flyover folks, strip-mall marginalia — that is the attitude they take toward half the nation.

          When I talk politics with conservatives my age, conversations reduce down to debating how to live a good life in opposition to capitalist excess and postmodern alienation. My liberal friends spend their time theorizing how UberEats and Disney+ can still exist after some presupposed revolution. That’s why I think — long term — the GOP has better fundamentals as a party of and for the working class.

          1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            To know with what you’re dealing, all you need to do is a google search with “do americans believe they are the top 1%”.

            What you get is hilarious.

            I saw my first article on this years ago in the WSJ or Forbes reporting on a widely taken non-scientific poll, like a Fox poll, that asked for respondents to identify their income range. It then asked them to indicate if they were in the top 1, 5, 10,… percentage.

            A full 10% indicated they were in the top 1%. Unfortunately, fewer than 1% indicated they had incomes that supported that belief.

            Here’s a similar result

            https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/70-percent-of-americans-consider-themselves-middle-class-but-only-50-percent-are.html

            When you are dealing with that much ignorance about money, anything is possible.

  22. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    As my Republican friends constantly remind me, “No such thing as a free lunch.” If you want to have poor people, you’re just going to have to pay for them.

    1. As is, the poor subsist on hyper-abstracted debt arrangements and (literally) the dross of industrial agriculture. Calling them marginal as-is would be far too generous. Keeping unskilled labor pools desperate, dependent on, and pliant to the whims of capital is baked into the whole damn cake.

      Bumping the wage floor without addressing any other aspect of working folks’ status in the market is going to backfire severely. Under current employment arrangements, sure, employers are speaking out against wage increases, but they have the leverage to negate the wage question entirely by moving to contracts.

      I paid part of my way through school working on the other side of this issue — employers know damn well what they’re doing. They’ll Uberize the whole service sector if they have to.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        Uberizing the entire workforce only works if they also prevent unions or organization through legislation, AND convince the average idiots that unions are bad for them.

        Not insurmountable objectives. Average idiots are just that, and governments are gutless and easily purchased, as just seen.

        I like looking over my shoulder every once in awhile. The Republicans and free marketeers have told me for 50 years that Social Security was unsustainable, that Medicare would destroy medicine, that minimum wages would devastate the economy.

        How many times can they be so wrong for so long, and still say they are the economic experts?

        1. It’s funny that you put it like that. I agree — Republicans qua the Republican Party are variously hucksters, [snake] oil salesmen, and war profiteers. But the thing is, Prop 22 passed in deep blue California. Not a peep from the CDP, Harris, Feinstein, or other Democrat stakeholders; IIRC the highest-profile figure in California media to speak out against it was Gloria Allred of all people.

          There are good Democrats out there, but the party infrastructure — one much more vital and influential than that of their GOP counterparts — is fundamentally a small-minded, professional-class entity beholden to major corporate interests. These are the sorts of people who only began worrying about Chinese competitiveness when they researched the supply chains of their solar portfolio. Flyover folks, strip-mall marginalia — that is the attitude they take toward half the nation.

          When I talk politics with conservatives my age, conversations reduce down to debating how to live a good life in opposition to capitalist excess and postmodern alienation. My liberal friends spend their time theorizing how UberEats and Disney+ can still exist after some presupposed revolution. That’s why I think — long term — the GOP has better fundamentals as a party of and for the working class.

          1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            To know with what you’re dealing, all you need to do is a google search with “do americans believe they are the top 1%”.

            What you get is hilarious.

            I saw my first article on this years ago in the WSJ or Forbes reporting on a widely taken non-scientific poll, like a Fox poll, that asked for respondents to identify their income range. It then asked them to indicate if they were in the top 1, 5, 10,… percentage.

            A full 10% indicated they were in the top 1%. Unfortunately, fewer than 1% indicated they had incomes that supported that belief.

            Here’s a similar result

            https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/70-percent-of-americans-consider-themselves-middle-class-but-only-50-percent-are.html

            When you are dealing with that much ignorance about money, anything is possible.

  23. LarrytheG Avatar

    re: unintended impacts and chicken egg

    lots and lost of “moving parts” in the economy

    consider also, other adjustments done automatically (in the law) that also directly and indirectly impact other thngs. Minimum wage is just one of many such “adjustments” , manual and automatic.

    Just take something like Medicare reimbursement changes…. that then impact prices and other insurance reimbursements that can also impact co-pays and other unreimbursed out-of-pocket costs.

    ACA health insurance itself where the size of the subsidy is based on income… higher income, less subsidy.

    Cost of living increases for Federal workers, ditto for social security. increases in Medicare premiums, etc, etc. Nature of the beast.

  24. LarrytheG Avatar

    re: unintended impacts and chicken egg

    lots and lost of “moving parts” in the economy

    consider also, other adjustments done automatically (in the law) that also directly and indirectly impact other thngs. Minimum wage is just one of many such “adjustments” , manual and automatic.

    Just take something like Medicare reimbursement changes…. that then impact prices and other insurance reimbursements that can also impact co-pays and other unreimbursed out-of-pocket costs.

    ACA health insurance itself where the size of the subsidy is based on income… higher income, less subsidy.

    Cost of living increases for Federal workers, ditto for social security. increases in Medicare premiums, etc, etc. Nature of the beast.

  25. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead V

    Wouldn’t it be nice if an increase in purchasing power came with the 15 dollars an hour?

    The Purchasing Power of the Dollar -What is $100 worth in 1913 over time?
    1913: $100
    1923: $57.89
    1933: $76.15
    1943: $57.23
    1953: $37.08
    1963: $32.35
    1973: $22.30
    1983: $9.94
    1993: $6.85
    2003: $5.38
    2013: $4.25
    2019: $3.87

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      James, do you have a view on the Basic Income idea?

      and have you been here:

      https://geology.blogs.wm.edu/files/2016/08/NottowayFalls.jpg

  26. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    A worker needs to produce more than $15 an hour in benefits to the employer to warrant a $15 per hour wage. Some people do but don’t get paid the wage. But many others don’t produce that much value. If the employer has to pay more than the value received, over the long run, the employer needs to replace the employees that don’t carry their weight and replace them with ones that do or with machinery that does.

    Last year, I did some regulatory work for a big retailer that is bringing radio-controlled robots to its warehouses. More is coming.

    Too bad we are more worried about canceling culture than making sure kids learn the basics.

  27. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    A worker needs to produce more than $15 an hour in benefits to the employer to warrant a $15 per hour wage. Some people do but don’t get paid the wage. But many others don’t produce that much value. If the employer has to pay more than the value received, over the long run, the employer needs to replace the employees that don’t carry their weight and replace them with ones that do or with machinery that does.

    Last year, I did some regulatory work for a big retailer that is bringing radio-controlled robots to its warehouses. More is coming.

    Too bad we are more worried about canceling culture than making sure kids learn the basics.

  28. Paul Sweet Avatar
    Paul Sweet

    Few people look beyond the minimum wage. If somebody working at the present minimum $7.25 wage gets it increased to $15 an hour, what happens to the supervisor who is making $8 or 9 per hour, and has more responsibilities? They won’t be willing to be responsible for somebody else’s work, and maybe have to fill in for somebody who doesn’t show up if they can’t find another employee who will fill in, and settle for the same wage as somebody with much less responsibility. Is their wage also doubled, or do they get the same $7.75 raise as the minimum wage worker? Do these raises this go all the way up the pay scale, or do higher paid workers get proportionally smaller increases? The economic impact is likely to be far greater than living wage proponents imagine.

  29. Paul Sweet Avatar
    Paul Sweet

    Few people look beyond the minimum wage. If somebody working at the present minimum $7.25 wage gets it increased to $15 an hour, what happens to the supervisor who is making $8 or 9 per hour, and has more responsibilities? They won’t be willing to be responsible for somebody else’s work, and maybe have to fill in for somebody who doesn’t show up if they can’t find another employee who will fill in, and settle for the same wage as somebody with much less responsibility. Is their wage also doubled, or do they get the same $7.75 raise as the minimum wage worker? Do these raises this go all the way up the pay scale, or do higher paid workers get proportionally smaller increases? The economic impact is likely to be far greater than living wage proponents imagine.

  30. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead V

    Wouldn’t it be nice if an increase in purchasing power came with the 15 dollars an hour?

    The Purchasing Power of the Dollar -What is $100 worth in 1913 over time?
    1913: $100
    1923: $57.89
    1933: $76.15
    1943: $57.23
    1953: $37.08
    1963: $32.35
    1973: $22.30
    1983: $9.94
    1993: $6.85
    2003: $5.38
    2013: $4.25
    2019: $3.87

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      James, do you have a view on the Basic Income idea?

      and have you been here:

      https://geology.blogs.wm.edu/files/2016/08/NottowayFalls.jpg

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