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Recidivism: The Rest of the Story, Part 1 — How Large Is It?

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Dick Hall-Sizemore
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by Dick Hall-Sizemore

Recently, Governor Northam issued a press release applauding the Department of Corrections’ (DOC) most recent recidivism rate of 23.9% and noting it was one of the lowest in the country. All that is true and is highly commendable, but, as Paul Harvey used to say, “Now, for the rest of the story.”

Source: Virginia Dept. of Corrections

While a recidivism rate of 23.9% is excellent, it is actually an increase over the most previous rate of 23.1%. Although DOC likes to say that the most recent rate is “only” 0.8 of a percentage point more than the previous year, over the last four years, as shown by the accompanying graph, the recidivism rate rose from 22.4% to 23.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points.

Furthermore, although Virginia’s rate was among the lowest recidivism rates in the country (second lowest), for each of the four years prior to the last, the state had the lowest rate. In summary, although Virginia has an excellent recidivism rate, the rate has been increasing and Virginia has slipped a notch in relation to other states.

To be fair to DOC, there were some unusual circumstances that could explain much of the recent increase in recidivism. But, those explanations are not simple and do not fit neatly on a press release.

Before examining those explanations, it would be helpful to explain how recidivism is defined.

Recidivism is measured over a three-year interval from the date of an offender’s release. The most recent rate of 23.9% applies to those offenders released in 2016 and any criminal activity committed by them through 2019. DOC then waits a year to ensure that the court records are complete. The most recent recidivism data is for the 2016 cohort, for which DOC began analyzing the three-year data at the end of 2020.

Recidivism can be expressed in one of three ways:

  1. Re-arrest—any arrest reported for the three-year period in the Virginia State Police criminal history database for a felony or misdemeanor offense.
  2. Re-conviction—a conviction resulting from a re-arrest for a felony or misdemeanor during the three-year period.
  3. Re-incarceration—sentenced to a prison term for a felony within the three-year period, including for a felony committed prior to the release and for technical violations.

Unless specified otherwise, when DOC and Virginia officials refer to recidivism, they are referring to the re-incarceration rate. Because re-incarceration over a three-period is the measure most commonly used by states (42 states), it is the one used when comparing states. It also happens to be the lowest rate among the three.

Of the other two, re-arrest is the least useful. It likely reflects an attitude of “rounding up all the usual suspects.” The re-conviction rate is the best indicator of continued criminal activity by offenders after their release. Because the re-incarceration rate includes only offenders convicted and sent back to prison for a felony or technical violation, a released offender who was convicted of a misdemeanor, or even a felony, who either was sentenced only to jail time or had his new sentence suspended, would not show up in the re-incarceration rate. The re-conviction rate runs considerably higher than the re-incarceration rate.

To its credit, in its official reports, DOC shows all three recidivism rates.  However, when generally discussing recidivism, politicians, DOC officials, and state staff stick to re-incarceration.

Next part:  Some explanations for the increase

DOC source materials:

https://vadoc.virginia.gov/media/1680/vadoc-state-recidivism-report-2021-05.pdf

https://vadoc.virginia.gov/media/1683/vadoc-recidivism-summary-report-2021-04.pdf

https://vadoc.virginia.gov/media/1684/vadoc-state-recidivism-comparison-report-2021-04.pdf

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31 responses to “Recidivism: The Rest of the Story, Part 1 — How Large Is It?”

  1. vicnicholls Avatar
    vicnicholls

    Keep talking …

  2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
    James C. Sherlock

    Dick, Does your research data support an adjustment for politically driven lower prosecution rates, especially but not only in Northern Virginia’s population centers?

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      It would take someone with access to more granular data than I have and with more technical skills than I have to analyze the data from that perspective. However, based on the data that is available, the re-arrest rate for the 2016 cohort was a little higher than that for the 2014 cohort and the re-conviction rate for the 2016 cohort was a little higher than for the 2014 cohort. That indicates that prosecutors were not less likely to take these cases to court.

      See https://vadoc.virginia.gov/media/1680/vadoc-state-recidivism-report-2021-05.pdf

    2. tmtfairfax Avatar
      tmtfairfax

      If government were honest, the report would, at least, have a footnote that acknowledged the change prosecution policy in some of Virginia’s largest jurisdictions. If an attorney were presenting the material as evidence, the witness would be quickly asked on cross-examination about the policy change and its likely effect on the credibility of the report. Also, the opposing counsel would rip the unqualified report to pieces in closing argument.

      But unqualified, it would probably still be good enough for a woke journalist.

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        This report is of activity that occurred before what you probably regard as a change in prosecution policy.

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    One of the things that you strive to do in some of your posts is to make sure the data and information you are detailing is well explained , not misunderstood, a good quality these days IMHO.

    So , it appears that the recidivism rate is without regard an increased (or decreased) crime, arrest and conviction rate.

    So , no correlation on that basis?

    Also, curious, do they keep stats on the nature of the crimes of those released that did and did not re-offend ?

    thanks!

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Any crimes committed by released offenders are included in the overall crime rate, as well as in arrest and conviction data.

      As for your second question, I plan to address it in a future installment.

      1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
        James C. Sherlock

        Instead of “crimes committed” the data show crimes prosecuted and convicted.

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          That is true, as far as the DOC data is concerned. I understood Larry to be asking about the overall crime rate. Any crimes committed by released offenders and reported to the police will show up in the overall crime rate.

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Clearly, the rehabilitation part in the punish/rehabilitate dichotomy is in need of some work.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Second best recidivism rate in the country in not too shabby.

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Wonder how it will look next year without weed busts and prosecutions?

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      The effect of the legalization of marijuana will undoubtedly show up in criminal justice data. Statisticians will need to make some adjustment for that in their analyses.

    2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      I believe that those in parole system are subject to random drug testing so no relief for them. Failed drug test and back in jail you go.

  6. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    also. and maybe this was said but is this number only for those who served in jail or all convictions? In other words, someone arrested, convicted, but no jail time?

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      If a released offender is arrested and convicted for a crime, but gets no jail time, he will be in included in the re-arrest rate and the re-conviction rate, but not in the re-incarceration rate.

  7. Publius Avatar
    Publius

    Excellent and fair article, but I expect sanity from DHS, unlike certain others (and you know who you are!).
    One way “re-incarceration” could be greatly off is the current trend of prosecutors (nationwide and some in VA) to choose not to prosecute. This prosecutor’s discretion is a HUGE problem – first, it encourages crime under the broken windows school. San Francisco will lose all normal retail as the DA- Chesa Boudin, whose parents were in the Symbionese Liberation Army (or some 1960s group like that) – won’t prosecute petty shoplifting, and the criminals, who aren’t that stupid, know to steal less than $950 of stuff. The other problem with prosecutorial discretion is political. Throwing the book at January 6 “insurrectionists,” while ignoring, even encouraging (looking at you Commie-La and your bail fund), the Summer of Hate should be a crime against the prosecutors. The legal profession should be ashamed…but they have no shame. Laws should, must, be applied equally.
    But this gives an opportunity to tell one of the great lawyer jokes –
    Did you hear that the NIH has started using lawyers instead of white mice?
    Yeah, 3 reasons.
    First, the lawyers are more plentiful.
    Second, they found the researchers developed less attachments to the lawyers.
    And finally, why, there are some things that even rats won’t do!
    (Rim shot please)
    Second show at 9, tip the waitstaff!

  8. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    My first question was what was the technical violation split in the re-incarceration rate. Looks like it is a pretty big number from the links provided and a chunk of that was due to opioid overdoses. Opioid use aside, the technical violation issue can use some work. Many a parolee find themselves back in jail because of very minor technical violations that really don’t indicate a return to a life of crime.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      You are right; technical violators are a big component. My next post will cover that and I am planning a separate post on technical violators, as well.

    2. tmtfairfax Avatar
      tmtfairfax

      What is a technical violation of parole conditions? Misreporting the offender’s new apartment number? Having possession of a revolver?

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        Having a revolver would be a crime, not a technical violation–possession of a firearm by a convicted felon.

        The most common technical violation is failing a drug test. Others include leaving the area without notifying the probation and parole officer, not showing up for regular appointments with P&P officer, not attending assigned treatment sessions.

        1. tmtfairfax Avatar
          tmtfairfax

          Dick, I struggle as to why using drugs or leaving the area without notification are “technical violations.” If they are part of the requirement of probation or for older timers parole, they are violations of the conditions of their penal supervision.

          1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            A judge can revoke probation and reimpose a suspended sentence of someone on probation in the case of a new criminal conviction or for violating any of the terms of probation supervision. “Technical violation” is the term used by P&P officers and others in this field to distinguish between revocation due to a new criminal conviction and one for violation of the conditions of probation, which are normally not illegal actions. It is not a term used in the Code.

            Some members of the GA object to the term “technical violation,” especially when applied to the failing of a drug test. They argue that is evidence of illegal behavior.

          2. tmtfairfax Avatar
            tmtfairfax

            Thanks, Dick, for the clarification. If the term “technical violation” is not defined in the Code, does it exist? Failing a drug test hardly seems like a technical violation. Putting down the wrong zip code or apartment number seems like a technical error.

            I had serious surgery about 8 years ago. As part of my treatment, I was not permitted to drink any alcohol for one year, including at family celebrations and a class reunion. Had I consumed any, I would not call it a “technical violation” of my treatment requirements. Nor would my doctors.

          3. tmtfairfax Avatar
            tmtfairfax

            Thanks, Dick, for the clarification. If the term “technical violation” is not defined in the Code, does it exist? Failing a drug test hardly seems like a technical violation. Putting down the wrong zip code or apartment number seems like a technical error.

            I had serious surgery about 8 years ago. As part of my treatment, I was not permitted to drink any alcohol for one year, including at family celebrations and a class reunion. Had I consumed any, I would not call it a “technical violation” of my treatment requirements. Nor would my doctors.

  9. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Uh, this is old. Very much a lagging measure. This means nothing about what is going on now. This reflects the release policies of 2016. Maybe with the widespread changes due either to COVID or the more aggressive parole board the rate will or will not change, but it will be four years before we know if we just wait for this report.

    But I guess we can expect to hear this in response to the campaign ads focused on rising crime, that is if any Republican actually starts talking about issues….

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      You are correct–what is going on today will not be reflected for awhile in the recidivist data. Just two clarifications. Offenders released by the Parole Board represent a very small proportion of the offenders released in any single year. The vast majority of those released are getting out because they have finished serving their sentences. Secondly, this data reflects prosecution and judicial behavior through FY 2019.

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        Does this mean that someone who has finished his sentence and been released would not show up in the recidivism rate if he committed a crime within a year of release and was subsequently arrested, convicted and incarcerated?

        EDIT: Never mind. I originally misinterpreted one of the statements in your response to Mr. Haner.

  10. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    “Because re-incarceration over a three-period is the measure most commonly used by states (42 states), it is the one used when comparing states. It also happens to be the lowest rate among the three.”

    It certainly can’t be higher than the other two.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      You are quite right. I had not worked out that logic.

  11. Perry Duff Avatar
    Perry Duff

    It’s one thing to endeavor to help those seeking to escape recidivism. But it’s another thing altogether to return them to an environment that resulted in the bad decisions they made? The question is, how do we help them cope with such an environment that starves them of the basic resources for survival?
    https://www.thehustlerscornernyc.com/causes-of-recidivism/

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