Legislators MIA on Wind Performance Standard

Del. Kaye Kory, D-Fairfax

by Steve Haner

In the ongoing debate over Dominion Energy Virginia’s proposed $10 billion offshore wind project, focus should remain on the people truly responsible for undercutting State Corporation Commission authority to protect consumers: the legislators who passed provisions in the code the utility interprets as a rubber stamp for its proposals. 

More than 50 delegates and 20 senators voted for that legislation in 2020, all but two of them Democrats. The same legislators blocked any changes in 2022. Now that the language itself is the center of the legal argument, only one of them has put a comment on the record with the SCC. The rest are missing in action.

That one was Delegate Kaye Kory, D-Fairfax, and she wrote the commissioners to support their proposed performance standard for the 176 turbines during their 30-year lifespan. So, by a vote of 1-0, the General Assembly backers of this have sent a clear message to the SCC.  The message seems to be most are getting shaky in their conviction that offshore wind should be imposed by legislative diktat.

Trust me, Dominion would welcome their support. The record in other cases in recent years is filled with fawning testimony from compliant legislators praising the utility’s plans and positions. They haven’t been reticent in defending the carbon tax they imposed though the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. But on this? Silence.

In her letter, Kory writes the SCC’s proposed standard is:

…a critical consumer protection measure that would ensure that Virginia ratepayers are held harmless in the event the project does not meet the capacity factor performance projected by Dominion…. Given that the offshore wind project is the single largest energy investment in our Commonwealth’s history, as well as the first such project owned by an investor-owned utility, I believe the measure is necessary to protect customers already paying some of the highest electricity bills in the country. I urge the SCC to reject Dominion’s petition for reconsideration of the performance guarantee and move forward with the previous approval as ordered including the performance guarantee.

Also missing from the record is any comment or brief from Governor Glenn Youngkin’s Administration, which only recently was happy to weigh in with a letter to the SCC expressing support for what it considered a vital project.

To recap: the SCC approved the project but imposed the performance standard, seeking to protect consumers from any additional costs for energy if the turbines fail to meet Dominion’s advertised 42% capacity factor. Dominion’s response has been to threaten over and over to drop the whole thing unless the customers bear 100% of the cost and risk.

In the meantime, has anybody been watching the news from Florida? Is there any reason to doubt that sometime in the next 30 years a similar storm (and the climate screamers claim they are getting more frequent and worse) will hit the wind project off Virginia Beach? That vivid reminder alone may be the most significant development during this period of reconsideration.

The utility’s motion for reconsideration gave all the formal parties to the case, other public entities, and a smattering of individuals a chance to weigh in with legal briefs, data or comments. In support of its position that the performance standard is not permitted by the language its General Assembly allies accepted, Dominion got support from (drum roll please) The Sierra Club and one individual.

In support of the Commission’s performance standard (links to their documents included) are:

Those were all legal briefs prepared by attorneys, but the record also contains more informal comments, which often range beyond the question of how to interpret the 2020 legislation. Quite a few challenge the basic wisdom of the investment. They came from:

In the brief from the Attorney General’s Office, the unsolicited comments from the public were cited and quoted as signs of public sentiment, along with the pages of legal argument and precedent. In response, Dominion went out of its way in its final brief to ask the Commission to disregard the data or opinions from those not party to the case.

The comments certainly are abnormal, both because they are not contemplated by 5 VAC 5-20-220 and because they were not directed by the Commission’s Order Granting Reconsideration. As a procedural matter, the comments should not be considered. Substantively, Consumer Counsel’s observation notwithstanding, the fact that a few non-parties to the case suggest—out of procedural turn—that the Commission should do something contrary to law or that would end the Project does not mean that it should.

Had the unsolicited comments and briefs gone the other way, would Dominion have written that? It is like that moment in the trial when one counsel jumps up and objects, and the judge instructs the jury to disregard what it just heard. Does the judge and jury do so? Not likely. The comments were posted by the SCC, not disregarded.


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Comments

69 responses to “Legislators MIA on Wind Performance Standard”

  1. James McCarthy Avatar
    James McCarthy

    Is not the elected office in the GA the very definition of wind?

  2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
    f/k/a_tmtfairfax

    Kudos to Kaye Kory and the others who have spoken up. Dominion has a terrible reputation for network reliability. Right after the Derecho, I spoke with a outstate repair crew working in our neighborhood. They told me that they loved Dominion because its general lack of maintenance resulted in so many outages that brought outstate crews lots of work and big overtime payments.

    Why would anyone believe that Dominion’s maintenance of an offshore wind installation be any better? It’s simply bad ratemaking to put all of the performance risk on ratepayers. Toss in Nor-easters and it’s “ratepayers bend over.”

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      “It’s simply bad ratemaking to put all of the performance risk on ratepayers.”

      Simple and accurate.

  3. How is it a performance guarantee would result in untenable costs for Dominion, but not for ratepayers if there were none?

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Right. There have never been storm in Virginia sufficient to damage these windmills but Dominion will chuck the project if Dominion is forced ti stand behind its own engineering estimates.

      C’mon.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        So are they bluffing or not?

        Seems like if they bail, most of the BR conservatives would be pleased.

        If a non-monopoly company took it over, would the naysayers here still be vocal about hurricanes and feasibility?

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          Dominion knows that it controls our state government, especially the Imperial Clown Show in Richmond. Those massive and legally unlimited donations (year after year) ensure that.

          Dominion wants its cake and wants to eat it too. Given that they have purchased the General Assembly … why shouldn’t they seek a return on their investment.

          The losers? Ratepayers of course.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Dominion will choose investors over ratepayers all day long. That is their long history from nukes to stranded coal plants to coal ash cleanup to even excess profits and tax-rebates kept.

          2. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            The problem isn’t Dominion. The problem is the Imperial Clown Show in Richmond and their lack of ethics.

            The idea that a monopoly utility, regulated by the state, can make unlimited contributions to very people who are supposed to regulate it is beyond absurd.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            don’t have to convince me. Perhaps Youngkin will do what the Dems would not?

  4. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    Not only should Dominion have skin in the game, so should our beloved legislators…
    Public companies have clawbacks for executives. These guys pass cr@p and pass the costs on to us. Then go get lobbying gigs. Far worse at the federal level. Minor props to Kory, but would I be correct to guess that she voted for the boondoggle when the Dems controlled all?

  5. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The discussion about vulnerability to hurricanes is certainly important, but is it relevant to the performance standard issue? I would be surprised if there were not something in the proposal that says the performance standard is not applicable in the case of some act of nature such as a hurricane or underwater earthquake rendering some or all of the turbines inoperable.

    As for the performance standard and Dominion’s threat to pull out, I hope the SCC stands its ground and calls Dominion’s bluff. If I were Bob Blue, I would be humiliated to admit that my company is not sure enough of its own claims of performance that it chooses not to go forward if it has to bear any risk.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      “If I were Bob Blue, I would be humiliated to admit that my company is not sure enough of its own claims of performance that it chooses not to go forward if it has to bear any risk.”

      If I were Bob Blue I would expect that my endless spending on political contributions should allow my company to control the legislature to the extent that there is no need for my company or its shareholders to assume any risk.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        It’s a financial exposure and not something investors like, right?

        You might want to read the RTD this morning on Youngkin’s energy plan. you might like it.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          It’s a financial exposure ant not something investors like, that’s right. But the regulators are supposed to balance the risks borne by the ratepayers vs those borne by the shareholders. That equation is irrevocably broken when the regulated company uses political donations to accomplish what is known as regulatory capture.

  6. David Wojick Avatar
    David Wojick

    Re designing for hurricanes, back when I was a civil engineer my specialty was failure analysis. It was for dams but the principles are general. When a structure is designed to withstand load L that assumes perfect materials and construction. Since these are unlikely, especially in multiple cases like 180 or so giant wind turbines, we use a “factor of safety” which in my cases was 1.3.

    This means that you design for 1.3L to be relatively safe at L. Using that factor, being safe at 150 mph requires designing for 195 mph. Conversely designing for 150 only makes you relatively safe at 115 mph.

    I would love to see what they actually designed for, and how, but apparently it is all a secret.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      The more physics you know, the less engineering you have to do.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        uber-true.

    2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      “Conversely designing for 150 only makes you relatively safe at 115 mph”

      Which is an exceedingly rare wind speed for Virginia. Btw, these are also engineers doing the design and they know about safety factors.

    3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      “Conversely designing for 150 only makes you relatively safe at 115 mph”

      Which is an exceedingly rare wind speed for Virginia. Btw, these are also engineers doing the design and they know about safety factors.

    4. Turbocohen Avatar
      Turbocohen

      One of the limiting issues besides transmission life is that blades arent holding up well with sodium laced ice that frets away at leading edges. The materials in use now haven’t improved enough to overcome the environmental stress. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9101399/

      1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        Blade erosion is a concern because the blades are moving faster than it appears, if I recall, well in excess of 100 miles hour. Not sure about the huge blades planned, not sure if they move faster or slower.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Do you know how tall these critters will be?

          1. Turbocohen Avatar
            Turbocohen

            15MW is >800′ high.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            is higher more vulnerable? Higher generates more electricity, right?

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            You’re basically talking about the normal and typical progression of almost any new technology as it evolves. It’s not a reason to give up and stop and give up.

        2. Turbocohen Avatar
          Turbocohen

          Virginia will be punished when the reality sets in and WE are left paying for obsolete wind technology. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8b51ca20f823f9afb89aac321ef1cfa82e7d22ff96280988e530fb52712198ed.png

    5. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Yes, it will remain a secret until the failures occur. Then, it will be the ratepayers’ problem to pay for the increased energy costs when the turbines fail, pay for the increased energy costs when the turbines fail to produce electricity at their rated levels and pay to replace the turbines.

      The secrecy is just a way to keep the pigeons (i.e. the taxpayers) in the dark while this monstrosity rambles forward.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          Sounds like a good start. However, he was a lame duck the day he was inaugurated and the General Assembly members have been, in considerable part, elected for life.

          Younkin should continue to press for his recommended energy reforms. However, he should also use his bully pulpit to press for hard caps on political contributions from any group – Dominion, unions, liberals, conservtives.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            He might win me over if he did that. And he says that Virginia should take the lead in small nukes…and do it in SW Va! Now if he will just stop campaigning for election and climate deniers.

      1. Merchantseamen Avatar
        Merchantseamen

        Don’t forget the pollution from operations and from failures. Who is going to clean that up.

  7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “Is there any reason to doubt that sometime in the next 30 years a similar storm (and the climate screamers claim they are getting more frequent and worse) will hit the wind project off Virginia Beach?”

    Yes, there has been no such storm hit southeastern VA (not even close) in the past 30+ years. Further, since this was a Cat 4 at maximum at landfall in Florida, according to your prior post, the offshore wind turbines are designed to handle such a storm. It was Cat 5 storms that you were pulling a fire alarm over in that prior post.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      I’m not comfortable they could handle Cat 3 or 4 or 5. That is clearly one of the risk topics being kept secret in the case. Building this there is nuts.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        A Cat 5 might mangle some blades, maybe rip a head or two off, but topple the tower? Not a snowball’s chance.

        And compared to today’s knowledge and materials, this guy was dealing with Tinker Toys…
        https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/statue-liberty-risk-destroyed-global-warming-article-1.2654077

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        A Cat 3 has sustained winds of 111-129 mph. Virginia has seen no Cat 3 storms make landfall in the past 30+ years. In fact we have not seen any sustained winds of more than 100 mph in the past 30+ years. We have only experienced 1-minute winds in excess of 100 mph twice in our measured history (1944 and 1960 – that last one is an estimate). The catastrophic event you are concerned about is very unlikely.

        1. Windspeeds drop over land.. Turbines won’t be on land and gusts can cause damage too. 1944 saw 134 mph sustained and 150 gusts. In 1954 Hazel had gusts 0o 100 in Norfolk and 130 in Hampton. 1960 was 138 at Chesapeake Light Ship. Gwynn’s Island in Mathews got 107 mph in Isabel in 2003. And what evidence is there they’ll survive a tornado (waterspout)

          1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            I noted both the 1944 and 1960 storms (more than 30 years ago). Gusts are not sustained winds and hurricane categories are set by sustained winds.

          2. David Wojick Avatar
            David Wojick

            But structures are brought down by gusts. Moreover these enormous towers stand on a single monopole with no guywires. If they just lean a bit after the blow they are junk.

            They have never been tested!

          3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Haner said he was worried about Cat 3 storms (as well as 4 and 5). Categories are defined by sustained winds. He need only really worry about Cat 1 and 2 storms to be realistic about things. They are designed to handle Cat 4 storms, btw.

          4. David Wojick Avatar
            David Wojick

            Yes the gusts in cat 3 can easily exceed the cat 4 sustained winds.

          5. There are nearly 50GW of installed offshore wind capacity globally, built to international standards. It’s disingenuous to say there hasn’t been testing.

          6. David Wojick Avatar
            David Wojick

            1. There is almost nothing of this new monster v15 MW scale and none for any length of time. I would like to know where some is.
            2. None where there are hurricanes, that I know of. Again if there are some, maybe in the Pacific someplace, I would like to know so I can look into them.

            These are huge levers so the load increases dramatically with length, which in this case is height. And while you can turn the blades edgewise to the general wind flow the gusts can come from any direction.

          7. If you want to read about the new Siemens turbine and all its predecessors and experience, here’s the product page. https://www.siemensgamesa.com/products-and-services/offshore/wind-turbine-sg-14-222-dd . This isn’t Siemens first rodeo with large turbines.

            If you want to read about international design standards for OSW, here’s DNV’s page. DNV is a leading global independent certification and risk management firm. Same ones that provides risk assurance for oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, amongst other places.
            https://www.dnv.com/power-renewables/themes/offshore-wind/index.html

            North Sea is pretty nasty environment; certainly hurricane force winds. That’s a concentrated location for OSW.

          8. David Wojick Avatar
            David Wojick

            I am pretty sure the North Sea does not have high Cat wind speeds. 100 mph sure, 150 not so much.

            My understanding is these would be GE turbines but they just lost an antitrust suit filed by Siemens. Back to the drawing board.

            Thanks for the standards link. I have read that there are in fact no standards for hurricanes so it is up to each manufacturer. Have to check it out if I get some funding.

          9. Turbocohen Avatar
            Turbocohen

            The Siemens design eliminates the transmission and is a better design. Blade erosion is still an issue but this design is better than most. #SiemensAlumni

          10. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Wind tunnel testing counts.

          11. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            geeze, they do that! I’ll bet Wojick is an expert on that too…and has “concerns”.

          12. Merchantseamen Avatar
            Merchantseamen

            Exactly even with blades feathered and the brakes on. The blades will still suffer damage. If not carried away. All this is to make themselves feel good. Rush always said “follow the money”. In this case our tax dollars.

          13. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            But do gusts destroy windmills. That’s the question.

          14. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            A wind gust generally lasts under 20 seconds. The longer wind a speed lasts, the longer it exerts force on an object and the higher the potential to cause damage.

            By comparison, a sustained wind lasts several minutes. Although the force applied is less than a gust, it’s applied for a much longer period of time often result in more damage.

          15. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            Interesting, thank you.

        2. Merchantseamen Avatar
          Merchantseamen

          Derecho in VA some 8 years ago winds gusts exceed some 120 mph. Federal Government classifies damaging winds 58 mph+. You forget. Water and Wind the 2 most destructive forces on the planet.

    2. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      I’m not comfortable they could handle Cat 3 or 4 or 5. That is clearly one of the risk topics being kept secret in the case. Building this there is nuts.

    1. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
      f/k/a_tmtfairfax

      The guy is an idiot. He concludes that 78,000 wind turbines would have prevented the damage from Hurricane Katrina. I worked with engineers for well over 40 years and have great respect for the profession. But suggesting construction of an unaffordable number of wind turbines is simply stupid. And, of course, he gets space in an “esteemed” member of the MSM’s publication.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        geeze, it’s only a few thousand…. and they’re only 50 ft tall. 😉

        they would pay for themselves if they slowed down a hurricane, no?

        Hey, that article is no more wackadoodle than some of the comments in this thread, eh?

        1. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
          f/k/a_tmtfairfax

          If my math is correct, at $9.8 billion for $176 turbines, it would be about $4.34 trillion for $78,000 turbines. I wonder why USA Today didn’t do the math. Even Bernie Sanders wouldn’t vote that an appropriation that big!

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            re: ” it would be about $4.34 trillion for $78,000 turbines. ”

            huh? what are you saying?

          2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
            f/k/a_tmtfairfax

            Extra $ – sorry, my mistake. $4.34 trillion for 78,000 turbines.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yep and thought to be totally infeasible – at least as a single project.

            55 million per tower…

            but each would generate enough power for 3700 homes, 288 million homes total?

            to give perspective, there are over 300,000 cell towers in the US.

            1983 was when the first cell tower was built @ 250K each.

            If that many wind turbines could power most of the US AND blunt hurricanes also and built over 50 yrs – not so infeasible?

          4. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
            f/k/a_tmtfairfax

            There were 140 million homes in the U.S. in 2020. So, let’s figure 150 million homes. That’s $28,954 per home or $1478 per year. That comes to about $120 per month bill increase per home. I’m assuming a 20-year depreciation life. Of course, I’m excluding carrying charges, operating expenses, maintenance, etc. I’m also ignoring storage costs and costs associated with the need for other power sources when the wind doesn’t blow at speeds sufficient to meet all the power needs. But with storage and overbuilding, that might be more balanced nationally than for any local area. But, if 78,000 turbines are not necessary to meet national needs, fewer would likely be built.

            On the other hand, after the Power Companies fully depreciated their investments in existing technology, those costs, including carrying charges, and removing expenses associated with existing technology, the total monthly costs and bills should come down some.

            Let’s assume a bad case, monthly bills increase by $200 a month for wind power. (I’m also ignoring cross-elastics and assuming every residential customer would get their power from offshore wind.) Would there be other bona fide reductions in household expenses to warrant an average power bill that is $200 a month higher? Would there be sufficient support for this at this price?

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I don’t dispute your process but I’m not at all sure your numbers are bullet-proof accurate.

            And are you giving credit for reduction of hurricane damage?

            If not doing for hurricane purposes, it would only need about 1/2 of the turbines, right?

          6. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
            f/k/a_tmtfairfax

            The hurricane reduction concept makes no sense. One would need to put all of them in the path of the next hurricane. How the devil could that be determined correctly? And even if it could be done, what about the next hurricane that takes a totally different path? And the next? And the next?

            I agree we’d need only about half the turbines, more or less, for energy production, assuming battery storage, etc.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I don’t dispute your process but I’m not at all sure your numbers are bullet-proof accurate.

            And are you giving credit for reduction of hurricane damage?

            If not doing for hurricane purposes, it would only need about 1/2 of the turbines, right?

  8. 42% is unreachable.

  9. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    This is why Texas is waiting to see how offshore wind goes in the Northeast . According our Virginia elected officials, there is enormous benefit to taking the risks needed to take the lead in this area. When I was in private industry, we took the Texas wait-and-see approach, so color me uneasy.

  10. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/fort-myers-home-looks-practically-unscathed-after-hurricane-ian

    If a house can be built to withstand a Cat4 then a simple tower is a piece of cake.

    BTW, in the video the drone shows it unscathed in all directions. More impressive, it’s clean.

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