Bacon's Rebellion

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Is the Wason Center Doing Push Polling for the Democratic Party?

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

Relax, the headline is totally facetious. The Wason Center at Christopher Newport University is an independent organization that values its integrity. It is not doing push polling for Democrats. But you’ve got to wonder if the results would have been any different if the two had been working in sync.

Here’s the question Wason asked in a poll the results of which were released yesterday: “If you were making up the budget for the Virginia state government this year, would you increase, decrease or keep spending the same for…”

Judging by this poll, Virginia voters prefer spending more money on just about everything — except maybe tourism — by really wide margins.

This list is vaguely useful as a set of voter priorities for spending…. in the absence of any financial constraints. Sure, if money is no object — and the pollster hasn’t indicated that it is — why not spend more money on K-12 education? Why not spend more money on healthcare? Why not pay everyone more? But the poll doesn’t ask registered voters how they would like to pay for everything.

Wason neglected to ask: “If you were making up the budget for the Virginia state government this year, would you increase taxes, decrease them or keep them the same?”

What Wason should have asked: “If you were making up the budget for the Virginia state government this year and, thanks to growth in the economy and tax revenues, you had an extra $1 billion to spend, what percentage would you allocate to….”

That might reveal something useful about voter preference in the real world.

— JAB

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23 responses to “Is the Wason Center Doing Push Polling for the Democratic Party?”

  1. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Yep. This is why you NEVER look at one poll for insight.!

    I presume Conservatives know that, right? 😉

    Even then , even if you actually do look at other polls, you’ll likely find that a majority of people are not Conservatives which I realize is quite shocking and unacceptable to some but it’s the way it really is…

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      That is really just a proxy for the overall popularity of various government functions. No surprise on K-12 being considered the most popular/important, for example. But a worthless exercise for any policy insight. It certainly provides nothing by which to sort people into conservative or liberal camps.

      Come Sunday we see the results of the important poll, done among the members of the two GA money committees! Their budget amendments will be revealed and adopted.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Yep. This is why you NEVER look at one poll for insight.!

    I presume Conservatives know that, right? 😉

    Even then , even if you actually do look at other polls, you’ll likely find that a majority of people are not Conservatives which I realize is quite shocking and unacceptable to some but it’s the way it really is…

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      That is really just a proxy for the overall popularity of various government functions. No surprise on K-12 being considered the most popular/important, for example. But a worthless exercise for any policy insight. It certainly provides nothing by which to sort people into conservative or liberal camps.

      Come Sunday we see the results of the important poll, done among the members of the two GA money committees! Their budget amendments will be revealed and adopted.

  3. idiocracy Avatar
    idiocracy

    They didn’t ask about roads or transportation. Maybe Virginians like their traffic congestion. Gives them more time to fart around on their dumbphones.

  4. idiocracy Avatar
    idiocracy

    They didn’t ask about roads or transportation. Maybe Virginians like their traffic congestion. Gives them more time to fart around on their dumbphones.

  5. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    Public Safety ranked nearly as high as K-12 Education and Healthcare.

    Further evidence that people do not want to defund the police.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      so that part is not “push polling” but the real thing?

      Maybe we see a new movement: “defund the schools” ?

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        1) I did not use the word “push poll” anywhere in my comment.
        2 ) I used the word evidence, not the word proof. Despite what you may think, the two are not synonymous.
        3) Even in a poll as simplistic as this one, if a majority of people wanted to defund the police, 60% of them would not say they are in favor of increased spending on public safety.
        4) Regarding your snide, accusatory question:
        11-111
        00-010
        01-011
        10-110
        10-101
        00-010

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          was pointing out that in the SAME POLL (that some others characterized as a push poll) – that one can’t really treat the responses to the different questions in anything other than the same context – i.e. the same poll.

          And if nothing was said about “defunding” then probably not relevant.

          And yes. “defunding the police” is just as ignorant as “defunding” public education and yes..maybe actually ask those two questions – I’d be curious to see if the answers to them and what percentage would actually answer “yes” to either. I think most folks would reject both despite what some partisans are saying about the police.

  6. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    Public Safety ranked nearly as high as K-12 Education and Healthcare.

    Further evidence that people do not want to defund the police.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      so that part is not “push polling” but the real thing?

      Maybe we see a new movement: “defund the schools” ?

  7. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    I agree with Steve, this is a useless poll. In addition to Jim’s stipulation that responders should be told how much additional money was available, I would add that the poll should have indicated how much is currently being spent on each area. That information could have influenced answers.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      I don’t think most folks have much knowledge of spending – even at the local level.

      I bet if you took a “poll” of what the school budget is in a given county – a small number of taxpayers would know that number much less how it compares to other counties adjacent or of similar size.

      They’d know the real estate tax rate!

      They do bond referenda so that they ask if people want money spent for a list of transportation projects and include the top line number but most folks don’t realize that these projects – if approved will be bonded and in turn will affect the tax rate. It’s like “would you like these projects to be built”? BUT they often don’t say how much the tax rate might have to increase as a result AND they don’t say if the projects will be built right away or spaced out over a decade.

      Most folks pay attention to the tax rate, their property appraisal, where the school is and whether it is “good” and has the additional programs and courses their kids want.

      The same folks will drive 20 miles to save a nickel on a gallon of gas!

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        Your description of the ignorance of voters concerning bond referenda is a good summary of why I think voter initiatives would be a bad idea.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          I have to admit that. There would have to be rules.. and it would be important to inform voters. I note in a similar example , the county actually did inform voters on how much the cost of the projects would be in increased tax rates, so it is possible to have those rules.

          The state could require an analysis before it got on the ballot.

          And if need be – make the referendum advisory only.

          but I can’t disagree with your essential point.

          1. Steve Haner Avatar
            Steve Haner

            When I might have been among the consultants getting rich off a referendum drive I thought it had merit. 🙂

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            What I’m advocating is for the ability of citizens to initiate referenda. It should have rules . It should be vetted to ensure it is Constitutional and if not then re-work it or make it a proposal for a Constitutional change.

            I would set a high bar – like 10% of all registered votes to get to ballot and that it need 75% to pass.

            It should not be unfettered.

            The point is to actually hold the guys in Richmond more accountable for legislation – to encourage them to take action on issues that are clearly on the minds of voters.

            I do not like being in the minority on votes any more than anyone else but I’m willing to abide by it if the votes are taken.

            What I don’t like is the sausage making and other legislative mischief by those who do not really care how citizens feel.

            A way for citizens to have at least as much impact as the interest groups – and more important than that – to break the two-party control of legislation and government.

            It drives people apart – make them choose black or white, left or right and the elected fear the leadership of their own party more than citizens/voters.

    2. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      “I would add that the poll should have indicated how much is currently being spent on each area.”

      An excellent point.

  8. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    I agree with Steve, this is a useless poll. In addition to Jim’s stipulation that responders should be told how much additional money was available, I would add that the poll should have indicated how much is currently being spent on each area. That information could have influenced answers.

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      “I would add that the poll should have indicated how much is currently being spent on each area.”

      An excellent point.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      I don’t think most folks have much knowledge of spending – even at the local level.

      I bet if you took a “poll” of what the school budget is in a given county – a small number of taxpayers would know that number much less how it compares to other counties adjacent or of similar size.

      They’d know the real estate tax rate!

      They do bond referenda so that they ask if people want money spent for a list of transportation projects and include the top line number but most folks don’t realize that these projects – if approved will be bonded and in turn will affect the tax rate. It’s like “would you like these projects to be built”? BUT they often don’t say how much the tax rate might have to increase as a result AND they don’t say if the projects will be built right away or spaced out over a decade.

      Most folks pay attention to the tax rate, their property appraisal, where the school is and whether it is “good” and has the additional programs and courses their kids want.

      The same folks will drive 20 miles to save a nickel on a gallon of gas!

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        Your description of the ignorance of voters concerning bond referenda is a good summary of why I think voter initiatives would be a bad idea.

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