Dollars and Scholars

by John Butcher

Table 15 in the 2022 Superintendent’s Annual Report includes the division expenditures per student for operations. Let’s juxtapose those data with the 2022 division Standards of Learning (SOL) pass rates. But first: Economically Disadvantaged (ED) students (those eligible for Free/Reduced Meals, receiving Temporary Assistance for Needy Families [TANF], eligible for Medicaid, or identified as either Migrant or experiencing homelessness) pass the SOLs at rates about 20 percent lower than their more affluent peers (not ED). Thus, division SOL averages are affected by the relative percentages of ED and Not ED students in the division. The (very nice) SOL database provides data for both groups so we can look directly at the divisions’ performance.

To start, here are the 2022 SOL reading pass rates graphed vs. the per student expenditures.

There’s no room to label that crowd of data points. I have settled for labels on some of the high performers and three not-high performers. The aqua points are the state averages. Richmond is the gold points.

As you can see, some of the high-expenditure divisions do very well while some do not. And a number of low expenditure divisions do just as well as the best high expenditure ones. Falls Church leads the pack for the Not ED rate but is just above the state average as to its ED number.

The least squares fitted lines have negative slopes that might imply an inverse relationship between pass rate and expenditure but the R-squared values (1 percent and 6 percent) tell us that those variables are only distantly correlated. In any case, it is clear that Arlington, Falls Church, Highland, and Surry are paying about twice as much per student for excellence as Wise, Poquoson, York, Lexington, and Washington.

Here are the 25 big spenders and the 25 least spenders.

The math data paint a similar picture, but with four of the low cost divisions beating even Falls Church.

Indeed, as to ED students, those four (Wise, Washington, Lexington, and Patrick) and 39 others beat Falls Church. Here are the top 11 in each category.


And here are the datasets for both subjects.


The next time your school board asks for more money, you might respond by asking what Wise, Tazewell, and Washington are doing that lets them perform so well at such low cost. Hint: See this.

John Butcher is a retired attorney living in the Richmond area. This column has been reprinted with permission from Cranky’s Blog.


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Comments

55 responses to “Dollars and Scholars”

  1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Even beyond Richmond and Petersburg, the percentages of those passing the reading test for some of these localities are awful. Charlottesville: only 42 percent of ED students passed. Others were horrible for both non ED and ED: Brunswick–64/54; Danville–63/44; Franklin City–57/48; and Harrisonburg–66/39.

    The State Board of Education and the Department of Eduction should be aggressively pushing the low-performing localities to adopt the approach taken by CIP.

    1. Nathan Avatar

      “The State Board of Education and the Department of Eduction should be aggressively pushing the low-performing localities to adopt the approach taken by CIP.”

      And how would that be received?
      Who would lead the opposition?

      In case you haven’t noticed, there’s nothing WOKE about the Comprehensive Instructional Program (CIP).

      And you really think the parents of children in the disaster areas couldn’t do better with even a portion of the per student money as a voucher? How long must this go on before they are giving viable options for improving the lives of their children?

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        The voucher idea is a favorite one for conservatives. However, I have never thought it would be feasible. For example, I assume that we are talking about a voucher to use to attend a “better” private school. Let’s say that the tuition at the private school is $15,000. The student from the lower income “disaster” area gets a voucher for, say, $10,000. That still leaves $5,000 for the parent (s) to find. Quite a tall order. Perhaps the private school will make it up with a scholarship. Wonderful. Is the private school going to to do that with every child from the disaster area?

        1. Nathan Avatar

          This has been going on for a very long time. As it is, there’s no end in sight, and no hope in sight.

          So just keep doing what hasn’t been working?

          1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            Not at all. As John Butcher and Matt Hurt have demonstrated frequently on this blog, the member jurisdictions of CIP seem to have found an approach that works. Now, the state needs to push that approach on other localities in which things are not working.

          2. Nathan Avatar

            I believe in the CIP approach, but an administration hostile to it will likely resist.

            Schools can be reformed, but not easily. Meaningful change is unlikely without cleaning house. I doubt that will happen.

            Teddy007, the self proclaimed expert, insists that that schools don’t matter at all. Zip. I doubt his children went to Petersburg or Franklin, however.

    2. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      But I don’t understand. Charlottesville has identified 86% of its students as “gifted”. How could only 42% of them pass the SOLs? The SOLs must be systemically racist.

      Just when Charlottesville was so pleased with itself that it had achieved “equity”. How low must the cut scores be “adjusted” to more than double the pass rate to match the “gifted” rate?

      1. Nathan Avatar

        Facts don’t matter in Charlottesville. All these schools self-identify as successful.

        1. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          Lake Wobegon right here in Virginia.

  2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    From that exercise, the only thing you can conclude is that there is no correlation between $/student and pass rates. None.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Need to choke that shotgun.

    2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      That is Butcher’s point.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        I don’t think so. He does largely conclude that there is no correlation and then he cherry picks a few rural counties to imply that spending per child has no impact anywhere. Those are two different conclusions. With this data set, he could have just as easily concluded that Bath and Highland Counties are doing the right thing and should be emulated.

        I suspect that accounting for student body population size may provide some interesting graphs…

        1. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          Highland and Bath counties are the least populous counties in Virginia. Highland with a little over 2k people and Bath about twice that.

          Highland has about 200 total students in its school system. Chances are pretty good that statistics for both those systems are anomalies due to their small size or variances in how SOLs are implemented.

          Your comparison of outcomes correlated with number of students would indeed be interesting.

    3. Teddy007 Avatar
      Teddy007

      A residual analysis would also show that original data is not normally distribute but actually log normally distributed since all the numbers are positive, there is a non-zero starting point but spending per student can go very high.

  3. vicnicholls Avatar
    vicnicholls

    Cranky, I was just praising your and your pivot tables to someone in a new city. Thank you for posting! I’m going to bring this to their attention. Got a masters’ in stats, I said they’ll love you.

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Oooh, oooh, now do household income v. Pass rate.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      I suspect that there would be a strong correlation between household income and nonED.

      1. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        ED too. Expect there’s a strong correlation between household income and pass rates period.

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        1:1?

        Normalized by district median income, of course.

      3. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        One should suspect that operating a school district in Falls Church or Arlington is always going to be more expensive than operating a school system in Wise County.

    1. LesGabriel Avatar
      LesGabriel

      Who said Liz Cheney was a Republican, other than herself?

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Her voting record?

        1. LesGabriel Avatar
          LesGabriel

          like on impeachment and on Jan 6 Committee?

          1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Those votes just showed her to be an American Republican is all…

          2. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Or an American Twit, as in PT Barnum’s (roughly) “Nobody ever went broke by underestimating the American public”.

          3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Well Republican vs Twit… yeah synonymous… you’ve got a point.

          4. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            That’s bipartisan. Twits being synonymous with partisans today. Repubs had a head start, but the Dems have underachieved to catch up and achieve twit equity.

          5. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Q: What’s the problem with political jokes?

            A: They get elected.

          6. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            That’s bipartisan. Twits being synonymous with partisans today. Repubs had a head start, but the Dems have underachieved to catch up and achieve twit equity.

          7. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            No, no, that makes her a democrat, small d, and an American.

          8. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            UVa has hired her so that makes the D a capital.

          9. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            UVa also hired from Trump’s WH.

          10. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            95%+ D. The exception proves the rule.

          11. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Like on every social and economic issue there is. Cheney is just a never Trumper Republican which the Trumpist want to run out of the party.

  5. Oops! The sentence following the 2d graph should read “Indeed, as to ED sudents . . .”

  6. Tom B Avatar

    To make sure we’re not just finding the best of the worst, add private / parochial schools, and homeschooled to the mix. If they are having success, explore their teaching methods too.

    And let’s not forget subcultures in the country that don’t place much emphasis on educational attainment or family cohesion, both of which influence educational attainment.

    1. Teddy007 Avatar
      Teddy007

      Private schools are generally closed when it comes to releasing their data. And if one makes the same non-economically disadvantaged correction, one will see that the $10K per year plus for private school or mom giving up a $50k per year or more job is not worth it.

      1. Tom B Avatar

        Are you saying that the state doesn’t track educational attainment in private schools against standardized tests?

        1. Teddy007 Avatar
          Teddy007

          Yes, that is exactly what is being said. Public schools have to release a lot of data that private schools never release. Trying finding the data for one’s local private schools. At least in Texas, the private schools have to rank their students just like the public schools. And with the 10% rule, it does not help to attend a college prep private school is a family is interested in attending public universities in Texas.

  7. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    All the graph shows is why the magic dirt fallacy is so true. There is no such thing as good schools, there are only good students. If takes poor students and move those students into the good school districts, the poor students will remain poor students.

    1. Nathan Avatar

      Do you honestly believe that students in poor performing districts are incapable of learning to read at grade level?

      So what are we to do, just write them off?

      I don’t, and won’t, accept that.

      1. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        What everyone has to accept is that education functions along an S-curve where some students are very talents and pick up something easily while some students will struggle with what most consider easy concepts. The idea that there is magic dirt in Falls Church or Wise that if families just more there, there children will do better is false. What all schools should be doing is helping talented students advance, identifying students with real talent, supporting the average student to do well, and achieving whatever they can with the worst students. However, to punish a school district because it was lots of untalented student, unmotivated parents, and few talented students makes no sense.

        1. Nathan Avatar

          It may be wrong to place the total burden on schools and teachers, but you seem to think that there’s no way for them to improve. I know for a fact that’s not true. Years ago, my wife taught first grade in one of the worst areas of Los Angeles. At the end of the year, every student was reading on grade level.

          Parents and home life play a HUGE role, however. I agree.

          That’s why discussions about school performance should always include what needs to be done at home for a child to have the best possible outcome.

          Ben Carson’s mother is one example of what parents can do, even poor parents.

          According to Carson, his mother devised a plan for her sons to curb TV time and write two book reports a week instead. Working as a domestic for successful families, she had noticed that they read far more than they watched television. The required book reports were turned in to Sonya who would mark them up with checkmarks and highlights. “Years later we realized her marks were a ruse,” wrote Ben Carson in an NPR commentary on parenting. “My mother was illiterate; she had only received a third-grade education.”

          Read more at: https://adventistreview.org/news/sonya-carson-ben-carsons-mother-passes-at-88/

          Poor performing districts and children should not be written off. It’s possible to do better, much better.

          1. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Anecdotes mean nothing. The first argument against anecdotes is whether whatever was done is scalable.

          2. Nathan Avatar

            Doing what works and avoiding what doesn’t is totally scalable.

            The first step to effective learning is called “time on task.”

            Students learning to read for example, need to be actively engaged in reading, not learning about the over 300 new genders, or how many ways they can have sex.

          3. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Written by someone who has ever done research or been around students. And repeating tired memes that one heard of Tucker Carlson does not help convince anyone.

          4. Nathan Avatar

            “Written by someone who has ever done research or been around students.”

            Quite the opposite.

            https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10862967909547315

          5. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            a journal article from 44 years ago and based on data before that. Once again, not scalable.

          6. Nathan Avatar

            Teaching young people to read is time well spent.

            Arguing with you isn’t.

          7. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            But the idea that everyone learns to read the same way is as asinine as believing that everyone will enjoy the same things while reading. And how does one go from reading at the elementary school level to reading at the graduate school level? It is not some simplistic formula.

          8. Nathan Avatar

            Nice deflection.

            The topic at hand is reading scores for K12, not reading at graduate school level.

            I never said all readers are the same or that everyone will enjoy the same thing.

            I provided examples. I’m making comments on a blog, not writing a doctoral thesis.

            At the end of the day, you seem to stand by your original statement supported by nothing but your own refusal to admit it was wrong.

            Here’s what you said:
            “All the graph shows is why the magic dirt fallacy is so true. There is no such thing as good schools, there are only good students.”

            Some schools do a better job than others. If you can’t admit that, there’s no point is discussing it further.

          9. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Teaching reading in K-3 is very different than reading at the 12th grade level. The idea that there is a single formula to ensure that all school students will read at the 12th grade level and that is will work everyone is laughably naive.

            And to back up by point, does one know what the difference between being an undergraduate physics major at MIT is compared to the University of Central Florida. Both majors will cover the same subjects generally using the same textbooks and with instructors who have very similar credentials. The difference is that everyone in the undergraduate physics classes at MIT was probably the best student in their high school in math and science while at Central Florida, probably none of the physics majors were at the top of their class. That allows MIT to go faster, cover more material, and not worry about students falling behind.

            The magic dirty fallacy is that MIT has a special way to teach physics (or chemistry, or math, or engineering).

            Just looking at the data, there is little proof that schools do better once correcting for the students, parents income and education, and the other students sitting in the same classroom. If one goes back to no child left behind data, one sees that even the “good schools” like Wise and Falls Church did not do very well with poor students, ESL students, etc.

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