Bacon's Rebellion

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COVID-19 Update: Hospitalizations, Deaths Mount

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Today’s data update from the Virginia Department of Health shows an an accelerating increase in confirmed new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths yesterday.

Total COVID-19 cases: 2,012, up 306 over the previous day. The previously highest daily increase was 239.
Total hospitalizations: 312, up 66 from the previous day. The previously highest daily increase was 38.
Total deaths: 46, up five from the previous day.

And here are John Butcher’s latest calculations for the “doubling” rate for key metrics:

COVID-19 confirmed cases: 3.3 days
Hospitalizations: 3.7 days
Deaths: 3.0 days

The doubling rates have been holding steady for the past few days. There is no sign at the moment that the epidemic curve is flattening. If the current rate of increase holds, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations will hit 10,000 in about 18 days, inundating Virginia’s healthcare system.

— JAB

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21 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Hospitalizations, Deaths Mount”

  1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    Bacon double downs on horror graphics, going biblical now, right here in Thomas Jefferson’s Virginia. The Horror, the Horror!

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      Grim reaper? More Tarot Card than Book of Revelations. But can the Four Horsemen be far behind? So about 200 deaths a week from now, about 800 or more two weeks from now. It is amazing how much changes in just one week through this.

      1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
        Reed Fawell 3rd

        Some truth in what you say.

        “Death is frequently imagined as a personified force. In some mythologies, a character known as the Grim Reaper causes the victim’s death by coming to collect that person’s soul. Other beliefs hold that the Spectre of Death is only a psychopomp, serving to sever the last ties between the soul and the body, and to guide the deceased to the afterlife, without having any control over when or how the victim dies. Death is most often personified in male form,[citation needed] although in certain cultures Death is perceived as female (for instance, Marzanna in Slavic mythology, Dhumavati in Indian mythology, or La Catrina in Mexico). ”

        For more of excellent discussion see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_(personification)

        But of course Plague is constant motif and driving force in Bible. Got Jews out of Egypt, for example.

    2. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      I think the horror graphics are fun.

      I’m hoping to see the alien from Predator sometime soon.

  2. sbostian Avatar
    sbostian

    James, it might be helpful to look at the statistics without the cases attributable to Canterbury Rehab (and perhaps all skilled nursing care centers for seniors) as that is a genuinely unique situation, and certainly not representative of the typical situation in the Commonwealth.

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      Every region has its hotpots, it’s Canterbury. It has radiated from there into community spread by now, certainly.

  3. sbostian Avatar
    sbostian

    Do you have data to substantiate that or is is it just an assumption? Is your assertion based on contact tracking? Not trying to nitpick, but just looking for data.

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      You’re looking for a thread of hope. Don’t blame you.

      1. sbostian Avatar
        sbostian

        Not for a thread of hope so much as for data. I have been a data scientist for over 50 years in a lot of fields including biostatistics. I just want to understand. The more granular the data and the more ways we are able to slice it, the greater the likelihood that we can use more targeted strategies short of destroy the economy (perhaps for decades) to attack a single cause of illness and death.

        1. James A. Bacon Avatar
          James A. Bacon

          You’re a data scientist? I would love to recruit you to help analyze the data that we do have. If you have any interest in crunching numbers, please contact me at jabacon[a]baconsrebellion.com.

          1. sbostian Avatar
            sbostian

            James,
            Right now I am slammed finishing out the semester at VCU trying to conduct classes online. I would love to help evaluate data as time permits. However, one need not be a data scientist to crunch numbers. Interpreting the results and understanding the limits of the numbers, issues like sample bias and reliability of models are important elements of data science. Those factors have rarely been discussed in public forums and when they are discussed, those who question the popular story line are savaged.

            One example is the case count in Henrico county on April 2. The total count is 112, but 90 of those cases are in the Canterbury Rehab facility, leaving only 22 remaining in a large county. Additionally, 16 of the 46 deaths in the Commonwealth have been at that same facility
            It is reasonable to ask if we have a senior citizens care issue, more than a general population issue in Henrico. Woe to the party who raises that question in public. No – we would rather shut down the entire economy than to take a more granular look at the data. New York City is nothing like Virginia and we should take that into account. The US is not Italy or Spain.

            Sorry for rambling, just wanted to point out that the data are much more complex than the public narrative and we will all suffer because of that.

  4. V N Avatar
    V N

    Know someone in Wburg, that James City County/York County area has a retired population (> 50), who travel a lot. That is why they are a hotspot.
    Would be interesting to see what happens without those “hotspots”.

  5. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    No update on testing in Virginia?

    Virginia’s more mainstream media is catching up to the lack of testing progress.

    https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health/vp-nw-coronavirus-virginia-testing-behind-20200326-hul7xab3xjhkxdqpar2xtuyvyu-story.html

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      1416 tests yesterday for a total of 19,005

      1. djrippert Avatar
        djrippert

        So, we tested fewer yesterday than the day before? We’ve also fallen from 40th in testing to 43rd. Georgia will pass us tomorrow at the latest pushing us to 44th. Five of the states below us acknowledge that they don’t report all their tests so it’s likely that we’re really 48th.

        1. sbostian Avatar
          sbostian

          That is because we are only testing people with symptoms that are indicative of Coronavirus infection. Of those tested, 90% test negative for Coronavirus. A local nonprofit health company (whose name I will not mentioned) has tested twenty patients in the pas 6 – 8 days with only one testing positive for Coronavirus.

          1. djrippert Avatar
            djrippert

            Hard to see your point. So the other states are wrong? People walk around asymptomatic but infecting others. Testing everybody in a nursing home would let us find that one person who has the disease without knowing it before it can be spread. North Korea and Germany both used mass testing to great effect. I understand that the reason we have low per capita testing rates is because we’re not testing very actively. Got it. But why? I also assume you know that a sample of 20 tests isn’t very meaningful.

            Finally, the cue for a serious outbreak seems to be a rise in percent positive for those being tested. That’s why Michigan and Indiana are being watched closely right now. As I recall from the article I read once the positive percentage hits about 15% you can be assured that the sh** is about to hit the fan.

  6. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    The central question is when in Virginia will the fuel that feeds today’s rising fire begin to abate. Given Virginia’s lack of vigorous public health care response ongoing now for weeks, we may not have a clue for weeks yet, until deaths in Virginia begin a long decline.

    Also, Virginia, in many of its parts, may well escape the brunt of this plague that is inflicted elsewhere, by reason of the insular nature of parts of Virginia.

  7. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    A total lack of reliable information in the Commonwealth of Virginia. So what is new?

    Best I can tell, as to truth telling, and as to factual information sharing, the entire state government of Virginia and most all of its collateral institutions, from health care to higher and lower education to energy production and distribution, have been in total lock-down since, at very least, the year 2000.

  8. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    I am mystified re: who is catching it now. Early on they would say overseas or something. we’ve pretty much been home for almost 3-weeks except groceries. Are people just getting it from getting from grocery shopping or what?

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      The police in NYC are getting absolutely hammered. I assume the same is true for medical workers. Beyond that, the “experts” are changing their perspective again. First it couldn’t be transmitted through human contact (the Chinese government lie) then it required close contact but couldn’t be transferred via the air, then it could only be transmitted through coughs and sneezes, now just breathing can transmit the disease. Surfaces can transmit it too. So, the grocery clerk, the gas pump handle. Etc.

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