By James C. Sherlock
I think that we don’t yet realize the full impact of the revolution being wrought by the telecommuting that accelerated during COVID.
Virginia Railway Express Route Map
I am sure I don’t. But Virginians, and our state and local governments, must try to figure it out.
We are moving towards a world in which white collar workers will be increasingly exempt from commutes.
We have already seen during COVID the leading edge of the migration of workers and their families away from many of America’s cities, especially those with increasing crime, closed businesses and otherwise lowered quality of life.
Look at New York City. I visited it a couple of months ago. Many places I used to enjoy have become an urban wasteland. D.C. is not far behind.
Virginia urban areas and some of our suburbs have experienced COVID-related business failures and are threatened with more that result from the lifestyle changes that COVID brought.
The attractions in these places are not directly related to employment, but rather to population density. Restaurants, night life and the arts were exposed by COVID as vulnerable. Some people got out of the habit of centering their social lives on them.
The costs of cities and suburbs, especially housing, are less and less affordable. Prices have continued to increase in the face of fast-rising mortgage rates (Note 1). This cannot continue, so it will not.
Other Virginia locations that offer attractive lifestyles, lower costs of living and the communications infrastructure to support telecommuting with bandwidth and speed at scale can expect to see in-migration and its economic benefits if they both prepare for and solicit them.
The knock-on effects may prove far-reaching. I will offer a few of them for consideration. Virginia state and local governments will either plan to accommodate them or be run over by effects which, planned for or not, they cannot control.
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