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Lest
anyone wig out completely about what is being
described on some fronts as “the enormous budget
surplus of approximately $2.2 billion” accumulated
during this current two-year budget cycle here in
Virginia, let’s put that number in perspective.
On
a budget of $66 billion, it amounts to 3.3
percent—over two years.
The
sky is not exactly falling upon us.
Think
about it like this. How many of you can guess within
1.65 percent what your income or expenses are going
to be year to year.
Can
you do that? Can you estimate in January what your
pocketbook will look like in December and get within
something less than 2 percent?
It
would be like going to the grocery store thinking
that the list you carried for the things you need
would cost you $100 and it came in it $98.35, on the
low side, or $101.65 on the high side. Pretty good
guess either way, don’t you think?
If
you guessed that close on two trips to the store,
you’d be as close as Virginia ’s financial
managers were when they contemplated the state’s
estimated costs for the past two years and weighed
those costs against expected revenues.
Have
we got a little jingle in our pocket? We do. But
just a little. If we were at that grocery store with
a hundred dollars, we’d be walking out with $1.65
in our pocket. Not a lot of jingle. But still,
better than having to put that jar of mustard back
on the shelf—which is what we would have had to do
if that grocery tab came in on the high side at
$101.65.
But
it didn’t.
We’ve
got a little jingle in our pocket. The question is
what to do with it?
Here’s
the thing: No matter what the legislature does with
that 3.3 percent surplus—spend it, give it back,
or throw it into the James River—it is not going
to be a life-altering experience for anybody. It
really isn’t. It’s just not that big of a
deal.
It
is pennies on the dollar—in fact, over two years
it is less than four pennies on each dollar—no
matter how you look at it.
Don’t
misunderstand me. I am all for good sound
management, thrift, fiscal prudence—all of that.
I’m for it.
I
don’t think the government should spend one dime
more than it has to in order to meet whatever needs
have been agreed upon. In fact, I used to think
Virginia Republicans were like that.
Silly
me, I thought for the longest time that the word
‘conservative’ meant something like that when it
came to money and spending. But I guess I was
mistaken. That doesn’t quite seem to be the
guiding principle of those holding the government
spending purse strings in Virginia at the moment.
Last time I looked, they were Republicans.
Best
I can tell, the Republican mantra now is “borrow
and spend.” Is that how you see it? We’re
unwilling to cut spending, and unwilling to lay on
the taxes necessary to pay for it. That just leaves
one way out: Borrow the money.
Let’s
go back to that visit to the grocery store. Let’s
say I’m in the checkout line with the same list of
stuff and it costs the same as before. This time,
though, instead of paying cash, I whip out the
plastic and put it on my credit card. That $1.65
doesn’t jingle in my pocket now.
That
‘surplus’ is already committed. In fact, it
doesn’t even belong to me.
Somehow,
I already knew that. I didn’t think it did. The
question is, why are some folks trying to make me
think otherwise?
--
October 17, 2005
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