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Once
again, election campaigns in Virginia are being
shaped by national events. The terrorist attacks on
the Pentagon and the World Trade Center on September
11, 2001, obviously influenced the gubernatorial
campaigning that year. Not since 1989, however, has
a national issue affected the content of state
campaigns as have the issues raised by recent U.S.
Supreme Court decisions.
In
2001, candidates actually suspended active
campaigning for a time after September 11, but the
issues that were prominent before the terrorist
attacks remained prominent after campaigning
resumed.
The
situation was different in 1989. A decision
announced by the U.S. Supreme Court in June of that
year in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services
utterly transformed the 1989 gubernatorial
campaigns. That ruling put the abortion issue front
and center in the race even though neither the
Democratic nominee, Doug Wilder, nor the Republican,
Marshall Coleman, had previously anticipated the
importance of that issue in the election calculus.
This
year, the resignation of Justice Sandra Day
O’Connor and the anticipated resignation of Chief
Justice William Rehnquist have prompted both sides
of the abortion issue to mobilize for the
confirmation battles certain to come when President
George W. Bush nominates replacements.
The
media coverage and grassroots activity associated
with this battle preparation have had the indirect
effect of pushing social issues to a place in the
campaigns at least as prominent as taxes and
transportation had been earlier this year. There is
no guarantee that this issue alignment will remain
unchanged through election day, but the likelihood
of highly publicized confirmation hearings between
now and then makes it all but certain that abortion,
gay rights and other social issues likely to reach
the Supreme Court will continue to occupy voters’
attention.
Most
pundits have argued that Coleman lost in 1989
because the Webster decision activated voters who
were concerned that abortions could be further
restricted by the General Assembly, but Coleman
never aggressively defended the position he had
taken on abortion during the GOP primary campaign.
Had he done so, turnout by pro-life advocates might
have been increased enough for him to win that
election. We can only speculate now.
Circumstances
are far different for the gubernatorial candidates
in 2005. Democrat Tim Kaine, who proclaims personal
opposition to abortion, could hardly change
direction now and campaign as Wilder did in 1989 as
a resolute pro-choice candidate.
Independent
Russ Potts, having staked out the pro-choice
position Wilder took in 1989, will drain as many
votes from Kaine as he ever could from Kilgore so
long as abortion remains a leading issue.
Another
issue may play a key role in Virginia elections,
thanks to the Supreme Court. The decision in Kelo v.
City of New London, as noted in my earlier
commentary (see "Kelo
v. the Constitution," July 11, 2005), has
set off a powerful reaction that shows no signs of
receding. That ruling allows government to seize
property from one private owner and transfer it to
another private party simply because the government
perceives some public benefit from doing so.
Kilgore
and his running mates, Senator Bill Bolling and
Delegate Bob McDonnell, have staked out a strong
position that the Kelo decision be reversed by
action of the Virginia legislature.
That
joint statement by the three Republican statewide
candidates highlights another difference between
1989 and 2005. The GOP ticket is united this year on
issues and aggressively pushing them, as they were
not in 1989. The perception of weakness and internal
conflict that dogged the 1989 GOP ticket will not be
a factor in this election.
--
July 25, 2005
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