Patrick McSweeney


 

Recapping the Primaries

 

The June Republican primaries were cast as a referendum on last year's tax hike. Taxes were on the mind of voters, but so were other issues.


 

It’s difficult to find a consistent pattern in the returns from the June 14 Republican primary elections.

 

There was a nomination contest for each of the three statewide offices and numerous challenges to incumbent Republican members of the Virginia House of Delegates. Some involved anti-tax newcomers opposing incumbents who voted for the 2004 state tax hike. Others involved moderates challenging incumbents who voted against the tax increase.

 

In Fairfax, there were also GOP nomination battles for two open delegate seats and a contest to represent the GOP against an incumbent House Democrat.

 

The news media portrayed the GOP primaries as a clash of pro-tax and anti-tax forces. The reality was somewhat more complex. In some races, other issues played a major role.

 

Former Attorney General Jerry Kilgore overwhelmed Warrenton Mayor George Fitch in the GOP gubernatorial contest. Fitch mustered 18 percent of the votes cast.

 

In a much closer race, State Senator Bill Bolling of Hanover won the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor with just under 58 percent of the vote. His opponent, Sean Connaughton, chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, was strongly backed by business leaders who favored the 2004 tax increase.

 

Many of the same pro-tax interests were also behind Richmond lawyer Steve Baril in his fight with Delegate Bob McDonnell of Virginia Beach for the GOP nomination for attorney general. McDonnell surprised many by winning with more than 65 percent of the vote.

 

Although the news media focused on challenges to incumbent Republican delegates who voted for the 2004 tax increase, there were several challenges to other Republican incumbents who opposed the tax increase. Anti-tax challengers won only one of their nomination contests, but none of the pro-tax challengers prevailed.

 

The sole GOP challenger to defeat an incumbent delegate for the nomination was pro-life, anti-tax Chris Craddock. He easily dispatched Gary Reese in a Fairfax district by a 66-34 margin.

 

Anti-tax candidate Michael Golden won the GOP nomination in another Fairfax contest involving an open House seat now held by retiring Delegate James Dillard.

 

Most Republicans had assumed that Democrats would not be tempted to crossover on June 14 to vote in Republican primary elections because, for the first time in two decades, Democrats held a statewide primary election of their own on the same day. That assumption proved to be erroneous in at least two House contests. Delegate Bobby Orrock beat back a tough challenge from pro-life, anti-tax Shaun Kenney to win another GOP nomination in House District 54.  Election officers were quoted as saying some voters acknowledged they were Democrats.

 

The situation in Lynchburg is even more telling. Only 567 voters in that city participated in the Democratic primary elections, while 6,607 voted in at least one of the Republican primary elections. It is not a heavily Republican jurisdiction. Gov. Mark Warner carried the city by 54% in 2001.

 

Many casting ballots in Tuesday’s Republican primary elections were Democrats, perhaps as many as 2,000. Of the 6,607 who voted in the contest for the GOP nomination in House District 23, only 4,938 bothered to cast a ballot in the election of a GOP nominee for attorney general. That fall-off in voting suggests heavy participation by Democrats in the GOP delegate contest.

 

A pending lawsuit seeking to invalidate Virginia’s open primary statute would put an end to large-scale crossover voting. That might be a significant factor in 2007 nomination contests.

 

-- June 20, 2005

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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