It’s
difficult to find a consistent pattern in the
returns from the June 14 Republican primary
elections.
There
was a nomination contest for each of the three
statewide offices and numerous challenges to
incumbent Republican members of the Virginia House
of Delegates. Some involved anti-tax newcomers
opposing incumbents who voted for the 2004 state tax
hike. Others involved moderates challenging
incumbents who voted against the tax increase.
In
Fairfax, there were also GOP nomination battles for
two open delegate seats and a contest to represent
the GOP against an incumbent House Democrat.
The
news media portrayed the GOP primaries as a clash of
pro-tax and anti-tax forces. The reality was
somewhat more complex. In some races, other issues
played a major role.
Former
Attorney General Jerry Kilgore overwhelmed Warrenton
Mayor George Fitch in the GOP gubernatorial contest.
Fitch mustered 18 percent of the votes cast.
In
a much closer race, State Senator Bill Bolling of
Hanover won the GOP nomination for lieutenant
governor with just under 58 percent of the vote. His
opponent, Sean Connaughton, chairman of the Prince
William County Board of Supervisors, was strongly
backed by business leaders who favored the 2004 tax
increase.
Many
of the same pro-tax interests were also behind
Richmond lawyer Steve Baril in his fight with
Delegate Bob McDonnell of Virginia Beach for the GOP
nomination for attorney general. McDonnell surprised
many by winning with more than 65 percent of the
vote.
Although
the news media focused on challenges to incumbent
Republican delegates who voted for the 2004 tax
increase, there were several challenges to other
Republican incumbents who opposed the tax increase.
Anti-tax challengers won only one of their
nomination contests, but none of the pro-tax
challengers prevailed.
The
sole GOP challenger to defeat an incumbent delegate
for the nomination was pro-life, anti-tax Chris
Craddock. He easily dispatched Gary Reese in a
Fairfax district by a 66-34 margin.
Anti-tax
candidate Michael Golden won the GOP nomination in
another Fairfax contest involving an open House seat
now held by retiring Delegate James Dillard.
Most
Republicans had assumed that Democrats would not be
tempted to crossover on June 14 to vote in
Republican primary elections because, for the first
time in two decades, Democrats held a statewide
primary election of their own on the same day. That
assumption proved to be erroneous in at least two
House contests. Delegate Bobby Orrock beat back a
tough challenge from pro-life, anti-tax Shaun Kenney
to win another GOP nomination in House District 54.
Election officers were quoted as saying some voters
acknowledged they were Democrats.
The
situation in Lynchburg is even more telling. Only
567 voters in that city participated in the
Democratic primary elections, while 6,607 voted in
at least one of the Republican primary elections. It
is not a heavily Republican jurisdiction. Gov. Mark
Warner carried the city by 54% in 2001.
Many
casting ballots in Tuesday’s Republican primary
elections were Democrats, perhaps as many as 2,000.
Of the 6,607 who voted in the contest for the GOP
nomination in House District 23, only 4,938 bothered
to cast a ballot in the election of a GOP nominee
for attorney general. That fall-off in voting
suggests heavy participation by Democrats in the GOP
delegate contest.
A
pending lawsuit seeking to invalidate Virginia’s
open primary statute would put an end to large-scale
crossover voting. That might be a significant factor
in 2007 nomination contests.
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June 20, 2005
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