Patrick McSweeney


 

National Implications

Virginians aren't the only ones watching the Kaine-Kilgore match-up. The outcome of that race will shape the prospects of 2008 presidential prospects George Allen and Mark Warner.


 

George Allen, Virginia’s junior U.S. Senator, enjoyed a dramatic boost several days ago when the National Journal published the results of its survey of 215 political insiders about likely presidential candidates in 2008. Allen emerged as the leader among Republicans.

 

Meanwhile, Gov. Mark R. Warner finished in third place behind U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton and former U.S. Senator John Edwards when the same insiders were queried about potential Democratic presidential candidates in the next nomination contest.

 

Some observers expect Warner to challenge Allen for the Senate seat when Allen runs for reelection in 2006. If that happens, the loser of that contest is almost certain to fall off the 2008 presidential radar screen.

 

Although neither Warner nor Allen is on the ballot this November, their future campaigns will be profoundly affected by the outcome of the 2005 elections in Virginia, particularly the gubernatorial election.  Former Virginia Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, a candidate for the GOP nomination, is viewed as Allen’s man, while Lieutenant Governor Timothy Kaine, who is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination, has Warner’s strong backing.

 

Assuming Kilgore wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination on June 14, political pundits will surely treat the Kaine-Kilgore match-up as a test of strength of Warner and Allen. A decisive victory in November will give the victor’s political champion enormous momentum in the presidential nomination contest.

 

Should Kilgore win, Allen might avoid a challenge from Warner in the 2006 Senate election. Warner might be forced to reassess his run for the White House in 2008. But a Kaine victory in November will undermine Allen’s prospects of winning the Republican nomination in 2008 and leave him vulnerable to a challenge in his 2006 reelection campaign.

 

It is obvious that much is at stake in 2005.

 

The independent candidacy of Senator Russell Potts can’t be anything but a headache for Allen. Potts was an early Allen supporter in the 1993 gubernatorial nomination fight. His decision to run for governor as an independent this year was a stunning rebuke to Allen.

 

If Potts draws enough votes that would otherwise go to Kilgore to deny Kilgore the election, he will simultaneously deliver a punishing blow to Allen’s future political aspirations. A narrow Kilgore defeat in such a three-way election might not be an automatic disqualification of Allen from the 2008 presidential race, but it would cause considerable damage.

 

Party nomination contests are driven by perceptions. Any apparent loss of momentum dampens fundraising and public opinion. The very kind of survey that boosted Allen and Warner just days ago can also be their undoing months from now.

 

The Potts candidacy is a constant reminder of the division among Virginia Republicans. With Potts in the race, Kilgore has a choice. He can play to moderate and liberal voters in an effort to keep them from moving to Potts or he can galvanize Republican loyalists and conservative voters with a strong message. He can’t do both.

 

To the dismay of conservatives, Kilgore has failed to lay out a genuine conservative vision and has embraced moderate-to-liberal politicians in an apparent effort to avoid being depicted as a right wing candidate. As George W. Bush showed in the 2004 presidential campaign, a candidate can win with a conservative message if he energizes his base rather than following the traditional course of focusing on undecided and moderate voters.

 

George Allen understands the lesson of the 2004 election. It remains to be seen whether Kilgore does.

 

-- May 9, 2005  

 

 
 

 

Contact Information

 

McSweeney & Crump

11 South Twelfth Street
Richmond, VA 23219
(804) 783-6802

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