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Kaine
Shapes His Campaign
Virginia
may be a red state in presidential politics but
Democrats are still competitive at the state level.
Tim Kaine is getting out front on visible issues of
concern to Virginians.
Recognizing
the importance of health care to Virginians, Lt.
Gov. Timothy M. Kaine appointed a study commission
to develop recommendations on that subject for
consideration at the 2005 session of the General
Assembly. This
past week, he received its report.
Whether or not the commission’s
recommendations have merit, Kaine is likely to score
political points simply by focusing on that issue.
Political
pundits have all but given Kaine the 2005 Democratic
gubernatorial nomination.
But despite his three years of service as
lieutenant governor and his 2001 statewide election
campaign, he is still not well known to the voters.
His early focus on health care is part of an
obvious effort to strengthen his image as he enters
the 2005 election year.
Columnist
George Will coined the expression “the politics of
seeming to care” to describe the commonplace
tactic of staging or participating in
well-publicized events to dramatize concern about an
issue. Kaine,
who now has lower visibility than his putative
Republican opponent, Attorney General
Jerry
Kilgore
,
is identifying himself with the health care issue to
enhance his prospects with a Virginia electorate
that just weeks ago overwhelmingly chose George W.
Bush over John Kerry in the presidential election.
That
apparent Republican leaning among the
Commonwealth’s voters didn’t doom previous
Democratic gubernatorial candidates, including Chuck
Robb, Jerry Baliles, Doug Wilder and Mark Warner,
each of whom was elected in a year following a
lopsided vote in Virginia
for the Republican presidential candidate.
Kilgore
has been exceptionally cautious to this point, but
he can’t afford to run a soft campaign if he
expects to win in 2005.
Virginia
remains a more politically competitive state than
the 2004 presidential election would indicate.
Kilgore needs to energize the Republican base
next year to counter the strong turnout effort he
can anticipate from the Democrats.
It is party energy more than party unity that
will draw voters to Kilgore.
The
only GOP gubernatorial candidate ever to win in
Virginia
with a soft campaign was John Dalton in 1977.
His Democratic opponent, Henry Howell, was a
well-defined liberal who had considerable difficulty
drawing support from independents and even many
Democrats because of positions they considered
outside of the mainstream.
Democrats haven’t made that mistake since
then.
Although
Republicans will try, Kaine is unlikely to allow
himself to be caricatured as an extremist.
His support for a massive tax increase, for
example, won’t leave him vulnerable to easy attack
because a number of GOP legislators supported an
even larger tax hike.
And for the tax issue to be an advantage to
Kilgore, he must take a stronger stand than he has
been willing to take so far.
Kaine
has already focused on health care and
transportation, while Kilgore seems to be avoiding
controversial issues.
Ronald Reagan demonstrated that it was more
important for a candidate to be relevant than right
on the issues. Pushing
issues that aren’t controversial, but also
aren’t uppermost in the minds of the voters is a
losing strategy.
Voters
aren’t likely to examine the details of Kaine’s
policy proposals. If
he manages to project boldness and concern on key
issues such as health care and transportation, he
will at least get credit for leadership and for
seeming to care. As
the misguided Mark Earley gubernatorial campaign in
2001 proved, a Republican must do more than shout
“liberal” when his opponent offers bold
proposals.
Kilgore,
like Earley before him, can’t coast to victory in
Virginia
simply because it appears to be a red state.
--
November 29,
2004
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