Patrick McSweeney


 

 

Hush Little GOP, Don't You Cry

 

Demos gonna sing you a lullaby... The "leak" that the Kerry campaign has written off Virginia may be meant to put Republicans to sleep.


 

A headline in The Washington Post on October 4 read, “Kerry Team Reassigned As Va. All But Conceded.” Oddly, the accompanying article about the Kerry campaign’s decision to reassign 20 of the 30 Kerry staffers to other states was prompted by a telephone call from a spokesman for Kerry’s Virginia campaign.

 

Why would a member of a campaign staff take the initiative to assure that the news media knew of such a reassignment? There are two explanations that immediately come to mind. The first is that the Kerry staffer who contacted reporters was disgruntled and wanted to vent. The second is that the announcement reflected a conscious decision to put the Bush campaign to sleep here in Virginia.

 

There are reasons to doubt that the story was given to the media by a spiteful staffer. That staffer continues to work for the Kerry campaign. His call to the media came only after the most important phase of the Kerry campaign effort, which includes registering new voters, identifying likely Kerry supporters and training volunteers had already been completed. Finally, no one with the Kerry campaign followed up with the expected spin that Kerry had not given up on Virginia and intended to win here.

 

The more likely explanation is that the Democrats know they have a shot at winning in Virginia if they can make Republicans overconfident, while simultaneously energizing and turning out the voters who have already been identified as likely Kerry supporters. Even a closer-than-anticipated vote in Virginia will allow Gov. Mark R. Warner and Virginia Democrats to claim that the Commonwealth is moving toward the Democrats and away from its 40-year tradition of dependable support for Republican presidential candidates.

 

Whatever the motivation of the Kerry campaign in contacting the media, the reassignment-of-staff story elicited responses from the Bush campaign in Virginia that serve the Democrats’ interests. Ken Hutcheson, the Bush campaign’s state director, might as well have sent sleeping pills to the Republican grassroots when he responded to a reporter’s request for a reaction, saying, “The Kerry camp has realized after numerous polls that the campaign is under water and has no prayer in Virginia.”

 

No prayer? Voter registration in Virginia increased this year by about half a million voters to nearly 4.4 million. Given all the months-long agitation against the Bush administration by liberal groups, Democratic turnout is certain to be higher as a percentage of registered voters than in 2000. If Republicans want to sleepwalk through Election Day, Democrats have an excellent chance to win Virginia.

 

Intensity matters in elections. Hutcheson obviously should realize this. His response to the news of the staff reassignment by the Kerry campaign should have been an exhortation to the GOP grassroots to match the vigor and organization of the Democrats. This is the time for Republicans to give up evenings and weekends to work for the GOP ticket.

 

Republicans have never been guaranteed victory in Virginia. Electoral success depends on hard work, grassroots enthusiasm and effective communication of their message to the voters. The campaign is more about identifying and mobilizing voters who already agree with the Republican agenda than about persuasion.

 

The new chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, Kate Griffin, seems to appreciate the need to light a fire at the grassroots level. That’s the only way to match the intensity of the Democrats in this election.

-- October 18, 2004

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact Information

 

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