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Asleep
at the Switch?
The
GOP may not think that Virginia is in play in this
year's presidential election, but a big push for Kerry
could help Mark Warner if (when) he challenges
George Allen in 2006.
Is
Virginia
in play in this year’s presidential election?
Judging by the recent actions of the
Kerry-Edwards campaign, it doesn’t appear to be.
Media
reports last week indicated that the Kerry-Edwards
campaign had dropped plans to run televisions spots
in Virginia. The number
of states the campaign considers to be in play has
shrunk from 20 to 14.
Virginia
is not even among Kerry’s top 20 target states.
Gov.
Mark R. Warner announced at the Democratic National
Convention in July that the Kerry ticket was
guaranteed a win in the Commonwealth this fall.
Have circumstances dramatically changed since
then? Or was
Warner simply wrong from the start?
“Yes”
may be the correct answer to both of those
questions. By
all accounts, Kerry had a disastrous August, while
his opponent, George W. Bush enjoyed a positive
public opinion bounce from the Republican National
Convention last month.
But a Kerry victory in
Virginia
in 2004 has always been a long shot, as Warner must
have realized.
It
serves Warner’s political interests to have an
aggressive Kerry campaign in Virginia
this year no matter how long the odds are here
against the Democratic presidential ticket.
Warner’s political position in the
Commonwealth will be strengthened by an all-out
Democratic effort, whether Kerry wins here or not.
Although
Warner can’t run for reelection in 2005, he
obviously has political ambition beyond his current
term. There
is widespread speculation that he has his sights on
the U.S. Senate seat now held by George Allen, who
plans to run for another term in 2006.
Turnout
is likely to be higher in 2004 than in 2006 because
of the presidential election this year.
Some voters turn out only for presidential
elections and won’t be voting in 2006.
If Warner can get a substantial number of
those likely “no shows” to turn out for him in
the 2006 election, Allen will have a problem.
Warner
surprised a lot of pundits in his 1996 challenge to
U.S. Senator John Warner.
With an aggressive grassroots effort and
heavy spending on television, Mark (not John)
exceeded virtually every turnout expectation but his
own and narrowly lost to the incumbent.
Republicans should have taken notice.
Mark
Warner clearly benefits from a concentrated
grassroots campaign for Kerry this year.
The experience gained, the list collected of
likely Democratic voters in Virginia, and any organizational improvements resulting from
the 2004 presidential campaign will give Warner a
head start on 2006.
In
his 1996 contest for the U.S. Senate, Mark Warner
was helped by a deep division among Virginia
Republicans at the time.
John Warner had to overcome a primary
challenge by Republican James C. Miller III, a
former Reagan budget director
It was also a presidential election year, but
the GOP candidate, Bob Dole, mounted no substantial
campaign in Virginia, and the state GOP coasted into the election
because Virginia was not considered to be in play.
In
2004, Virginia Republicans are also deeply divided
— not over the likely candidate for U.S. Senate in
2006, but over state taxes.
The regular and special sessions of the
Virginia General Assembly earlier this year left
wounds that won’t soon heal.
Meanwhile, the official GOP apparatus is
embroiled in civil litigation that comes on the
heels of the criminal conviction of the former
executive director of the state party for illegally
listening in on a conference call between elected
Democrats.
Warner
is counting on Republicans not to match his
organizational efforts in 2004 and 2006.
The GOP had better get its act together.
--
September 20,
2004
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