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Republicans
Need a Bold Agenda
The
next House election will likely be a referendum on
taxes. Gov. Warner and the Democrats will speak with
a unified voice. Will the Republicans?
Every
one of the 100 seats in the Virginia House of
Delegates will be on the general election ballot in
November 2005. Senate elections will not occur until
2007.
Next
year’s House elections will be just as important
as the gubernatorial election in terms of
establishing the direction of the Commonwealth for
the following two years. Control of the House will
surely turn on the issue of taxes, which is not
about to go away.
In
most odd-numbered years, contested legislative
elections have been decided on local issues, the
personality and seniority of the incumbent or a
mixture of issues. Seldom does a single issue loom
so large as the tax issue now does.
There
are also likely to be more contested elections in
2005 than in recent legislative elections. This,
too, is the result of the controversy generated
during the 2004 General Assembly sessions by the
legislation that raises taxes by more than $1.4
billion over the next two years.
Republicans
currently hold 61 House seats to the Democrats’
37. There are two independent delegates.
Popular
wisdom would suggest that, with such an overwhelming
majority, Republicans needn’t worry about losing
control of the chamber. But that ignores two related
factors. One is that Republicans in the legislature
are deeply divided on the tax issue. The other is
that the 2005 House elections will probably resemble
a statewide referendum on taxes rather than 100
local elections.
The
governor has a greatly enhanced role when
legislative elections are like a statewide
referendum. He can focus public attention,
raise campaign funds and recruit candidates far more
effectively under those circumstances than in the
typical election year.
In
no way does this mean that the tax issue is certain
to favor Gov. Mark R. Warner and the Democrats in
2005. It does mean that the 2005 campaigns must be
viewed from an entirely different perspective than
legislative campaigns in the typical election year.
If
House Republicans don’t recognize this fact and
respond appropriately, they run the risk of losing
control. There is no sign yet that they understand
the risk.
As
political commentator Paul Goldman has argued,
political realities nowadays call for the Speaker of
the House to think like a statewide candidate. He
must set a clear political agenda.
The
advantage of the political party holding the
governor’s office is that it usually has clarity
of message and unity of command. That was obviously
not the case in 2001 when Senate Republican leaders
were at odds with then-governor James Gilmore —
another Republican.
Don’t
expect any daylight between Warner and the Democrats
running for legislative office in 2005. They will be
following the same script.
Speaker
William Howell, R-Stafford, can’t counter that
with transparent party unity. Republicans need a
bold legislative agenda. That requires decisiveness.
Just
as Warner had a consistent position and took
advantage of the Republican split during the recent
legislative sessions, he will do the same at the
2005 session and during next year’s campaigns.
That strategy will succeed by default unless House
Republicans take some risks and pursue an agenda of
their own.
The
Republican state central committee vigorously
opposed the tax hikes. The business elites supported
them. If Republican candidates turn off both the GOP
grassroots and business elites next year, they face
disaster.
As
Woodrow Wilson once said, politics is about
choosing. Right now, many Republicans planning to
run in 2005 are choosing not to choose. That’s a
losing strategy.
-- July 12, 2004
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