Patrick McSweeney



A GOP Opportunity

Democrats want to use tax "restructuring" as a way to raise revenue. Republicans should go to the voters this fall promising to make it a way to reduce the tax burden.


 

Here is some unsolicited advice for Republican candidates running for election to the General Assembly this year: Define the debate over taxes and spending now.

The tax issue is certain to be the dominant issue in the 2003 campaigns. Gov. Mark R. Warner has already announced his intention to propose sweeping tax reform and to increase state revenues. The Democrats running this year will surely follow his lead.

As long as Warner can define the issue as a long-overdue initiative to reform the antiquated Virginia tax system, he has Republicans on the defensive. But the public is less concerned about modernizing Virginia tax laws than it is about reducing the overall tax burden.

Warner, for his part, seems less interested in modernization of the system than in increasing tax revenues. If modernization were his principal objective, he could enhance his prospects of success on tax reform by agreeing that the tax burden would not be higher as a result of reform. He has already declared we will not agree to that principle.

Republicans need to stake out their own principled objectives on taxes without delay. The details can come later.

The first Republican principle should be that the tax burden on the average family is already too high and should be reduced. It’s not enough to talk about assuring revenue neutrality and opposing an overall increase.

Let Warner and liberal commentators complain that Virginia is not a leader among states in per capita tax burden or in spending for this or that program. Most voters don’t care about such comparative ratings.  They care about how hard it is to make ends meet and how state spending continues to rise faster than family incomes.

Let Bill Clinton campaign here as he did in 1997 when he called Virginians who supported the car tax repeal “selfish.” Virginians, by and large, still think government is bloated and prefer program reform to tax reform.

Democrats tend to accept polling results showing public support for higher taxes. These surveys have always been suspect. Just a year ago, many legislators were persuaded by opinion surveys indicating voter support for a higher sales tax for new transportation projects. The only results that mattered on this question were the election results in 2002 in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads where voters decisively rejected the proposed sales tax increases.

Republicans should forget public opinion surveys and stake out their own bold plan to revise the tax laws in Virginia. Unless they pursue this bold initiative, they run the risk of allowing Warner and the Democrats to project themselves as the only true leaders on tax matters.

When Republicans force the tax debate to focus on broad principles and the overall effect of taxes, they win. When they allow the Democrats to focus on technical matters, on state-by-state comparisons and on what Democrats always insist is an under-funded array of state programs, Republicans are at a disadvantage.

Voters want real leadership on the tax issue, not more of the same polemics. This is an extraordinary opportunity for Republicans. Unlike other election campaigns in which Democrats masqueraded as fiscal conservatives promising not to raise taxes, the 2003 campaigns begin with the two leading Virginia Democrats — Warner and Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine — openly supporting a tax increase.

The opportunity won’t remain open for long.  Republicans must announce as soon as possible a bold, unifying principle on state taxes that will guide them in the next General Assembly.

-- March 17, 2003

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