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By Patrick McSweeney
If Governor Mark R.
Warner views recent financial developments as
damaging to his long-term political aspirations, Tim
Kaine must be even more despondent. But he won’t
improve his political position by hiding.
Kaine’s likely
gubernatorial opponent in 2005, Attorney General
Jerry Kilgore, has been taken to task for not
staking out a clear stance on controversial issues
such as the sales tax referenda to be voted on in
November, but the political pundits have made no
mention of Kaine’s disappearing act. Sooner
or later, Kaine will be forced to take a stand on
budget cuts. By appearing to temporize or evade such
controversial issues, he will suffer politically to
a greater extent than Kilgore.
By the nature of
his office, every Attorney General confronts a
parade of politically sensitive issues. As
Virginia’s chief legal officer, Kilgore provides legal opinions to the governor,
other state officers, state legislators and hundreds
of local officials. In addition, he is required by
statute to represent the Commonwealth, state
agencies and state officials in litigation. Often
that advice and representation involve the most
controversial issues facing Virginia.
The law allows the
Attorney General to bow out of some matters. But he
can do so only sparingly, and a few sidesteps during
his term won't hurt him. The electorate will see him
making tough calls on issues he won’t be able to
avoid.
An Attorney General
has an institutional advantage over a Lieutenant
Governor in maneuvering for the Governor’s Office.
That doesn’t ordain the outcome of a contest
between them, as the Marshall Coleman-Charles Robb
gubernatorial election demonstrates, but it does
mean that a Lieutenant Governor requires political
skill and a measure of luck to overcome that
advantage.
Kaine may be
hunkering down, carefully observing Warner’s
actions and other political telltales. But he can’t
afford to appear timid, a characteristic the voters
generally don’t favor.
On the heels
of the painful cuts in the budget during the last General
Assembly session, the current
$1.5 billion budget shortfall poses a significant
problem for any candidate for statewide office,
particularly a Democrat. Kaine must know of the
adverse effect on Governor L. Douglas Wilder of his
actions to close a $2.2 billion budget gap during
his first two years in office. Wilder’s approval
rating collapsed.
There are no
attractive options for Kaine. He can’t risk
outflanking Warner, and he surely can’t propose
raising taxes if the Governor elects not to.
As he casts about
for a strategy that will take him to the 2005
gubernatorial in the strongest position possible,
Kaine must already appreciate that the course that
Warner took in 2001 simply isn’t available to him.
Warner’s 2001 gubernatorial campaign was based on
a strategy of blurring differences between himself
and his Republican opponent, particularly on guns
and taxes; presenting himself as a successful
businessman; and emphasizing the need for bipartisan
solutions. Kaine cannot be elected to the
Commonwealth’s highest office pursuing that
strategy.
The prospect that
Kaine can be elected governor of Virginia as an
unabashed liberal is remote. How he positions
himself for the 2005 race will be far more important
than the number of events he attends and names he
adds to his Rolodex.
There are no models
for Kaine. Watching him over the next few years
should be a political education in itself.
-- September 9, 2002
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