The 24 states lured into Medicaid expansion under provisions of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) collectively experienced twice as many new enrollments as they expected, according to a new report by the Foundation for Government Accountability. While the federal government has picked up the tab for 100% of the costs until now, states will start paying next year an escalating share of the budget that will reach 10% by 2020.
“Newly obtained data from these 24 states shows that at least 11.5 million able-bodied adults have now enrolled in ObamaCare expansion — an overrun of 110 percent or more than double projections,” states the report, “ObamaCare Expansion Enrollment is Shattering Projections.”
House Speaker William J. Howell, R- Stafford, understandably feels vindicated. He and other Republicans in the legislature took heavy flak for blocking a Medicaid expansion that would have extended health care to thousands of near-poor Virginians lacking health insurance.
Howell issued the following statement yesterday:
The report is further proof that Virginia’s decision not to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act is the right decision. Medicaid expansion states have enrolled more than twice as many able-bodied adults as expected, resulting in large cost overruns that create significant budget gaps.
Earlier this month we learned that Virginia’s current Medicaid program will cost nearly $300 million more than expected for FY2018. Every additional dollar spent on Medicaid is one less dollar that can be spent on public safety and education. By not expanding Medicaid, we have protected the Commonwealth from the financial disasters being experienced in other states.
Not only would state taxpayers be liable for bigger expenditures, the Foundation for Government Accountability report argued, able-bodied adults would consume resources that otherwise would go to seniors, children with developmental disabilities, individuals with brain injuries and other vulnerable individuals ” languishing on waiting lists for needed Medicaid services. Mounting overruns will soon exacerbate pressure on policymakers to shift even more money away from the truly needy and toward Obamacare’s able-bodied adults.”
Although the overall enrollment increase was 110%, the actual percentage varied widely between the states — from only 2% above projections for Hawaii to 322% for California. With its large population, adding 3.8 million to its Medicaid rolls, California skewed the national average higher. Among states close to Virginia, Maryland went 62% over projections, West Virginia 84% over, and Pennsylvania 18% over.
Medicaid expansion was supposed to cost West Virginia $429 million in FY 2015. But the actual tab ran $627 million, 46% more than anticipated. Assuming flat enrollment in future years and a 10% state cost share, the expansion will cost West Virginia taxpayers $63 million a year instead of $43 million by 2020.
