Category Archives: Environment

Air Board Approves Carbon Caps for Electric Utilities

The Virginia Air Pollution Board unanimously approved today regulations to reduce carbon from electric utilities by 30% between 2020 and 2030. The rule also will link Virginia to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), which will allow Virginia utilities to swap carbon allowances with power companies in other states.

The vote “will make this Commonwealth a leader in the global fight to cut carbon and promote clean energy technologies,” said Governor Terry McAuliffe in a prepared statement. “This will allow us to achieve carbon reductions in the most innovative and cost-effective way possible with minimal impact on customer bills.”

Virginia is uniquely vulnerable to the threat of climate change and many of our residents are already experiencing its impacts. We do not have the luxury of waiting for Washington to wake up to this threat – we must act now. I am proud that Virginia is joining states around the nation that are filling the void of leadership that President Trump has left on transforming the energy sector and protecting our environment. With these regulations, we will significantly cut carbon emissions, continue our state’s explosive growth in the clean energy sector, and set an example for leadership in Washington, other states, and the entire world.

The public comment period and on-going enactment process is expected to be lengthy, especially if lawsuits are filed challenging the legality of the regulations. McAuliffe’s statement was short on details on how the regional greenhouse initiative will work.

Here follow responses from various parties as they come in.

House of Delegates Republicans: “This is a clear attempt by Governor McAuliffe’s Administration to circumvent the appropriate legislative process to impose wide-ranging regulations that, simply put, will necessitate higher electricity prices and discourage businesses from investing in the Commonwealth,” said House Speaker-designee Kirk Cox.

“Democrats purport to be champions of the poor and working class, but this policy will lead to higher electric bills for families, small businesses, seniors, and the working poor,” said Majority Leader-designee Todd Gilbert. “It will directly hurt people already anxious about making ends meet and getting through a cold winter, but it sure will please Governor-elect Northam’s California billionaire donors.”

“The Air Pollution Control Board does not have the authority to promulgate regulations at the state level that exceed those at the federal level,” said Commerce & Labor Committee Chairman Terry Kilgore. “Today’s action is clearly inconsistent with Virginia law and a gross example of bureaucratic overreach.”

Dominion Energy Virginia. “We already are a low-carbon producer of energy, and have continued to work to lower emissions both in anticipation of future state or federal regulation and because it’s the right thing to do,” said Dominion spokesman David Botkins. “We have plans to build more than 5,200 megawatts of solar arrays in Virginia, extend the lifespan of our nuclear plants and have closed or converted coal-fired generation. While we haven’t yet had a chance to fully study the state’s draft proposal, we expect to fully meet whatever regulatory requirements that result. We’ll review today’s vote and participate in the public comment period in due course.”

Appalachian Power: “Appalachian Power is reviewing the proposed regulations. Given uncertainties in the ultimate Virginia carbon budget, allocations, and allowance pricing, we are unable to estimate the impact of the proposal on our customers at this time” said Apco spokesman John Shepelwich. “But the company will participate in the public notice and comment process to ensure any final rule, if/when/promulgated, will have the least impact possible on our customers.”

APCo has already reduced CO2 generation emissions in Virginia by 96% since the year 2005, he added.

Update: I normally get a slew of press releases from environmental groups, but nothing has arrived in my inbox on this. But in its story the Richmond Times-Dispatch quotes the Virginia Conservation Network as calling the draft regulation “a critical first step in addressing the threat of climate change and spurring investments in clean energy in Virginia.”

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time, especially when it comes to its devastating impacts on Virginia’s most vulnerable communities. It is imperative that every level of government steps up to be a part of the solution.

Virginia Could Gets Its Own Clean Power Plan

Would the Chesterfield Power Station get the axe under new state carbon emission rules? (Photo credit: Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Terry McAuliffe’s days as governor of Virginia are rapidly drawing to a close, but proposed carbon-dioxide regulations working through the administrative process could prove to be his most lasting legacy. If adopted, the rule would cap carbon emissions at large power plants in 2020 and then require 3% reductions annually for 10 years, reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

After convening a working group more than a year ago to develop recommendations on cutting power plant emissions, McAuliffe signed an executive order in May directing the Department of Environmental Quality to prepare the regulations. The State Air Pollution Control Board is expected to vote on the measure Thursday.

The regulations will be tied to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cooperative including nine other states in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The regional initiative will allow power companies to purchase carbon allowances from one another. The regional approach allows utilities in one state to purchase offsets from utilities in other states that might be able to reduce carbon output more cheaply.

DEQ models indicate that Virginia’s rule could increase the wholesale cost of electricity by about 7% by 2030, although the actual impact on consumers should be lower, say backers of the rule. In other states, expanded energy efficiency programs have offset the higher electricity rates with lower consumption with the result that electric bills are no higher.

While Attorney General Mark Herring has rendered the opinion that the state air board has the power to regulate carbon under its existing authority, others disagree. Air board regulations prevent it from enacting regulations more stringent than federal requirements, Jay Holloway, a partner with Williams Mullen, told the Times-Dispatch.

Republicans also have problems with the rule, arguing that it will weaken the Virginia economy. John Whitbeck, Republican Party chairman, accused McAuliffe of catering to liberal votes in Iowa and New Hampshire for his presidential bid.

Dominion Energy has remain notably silent as the carbon-cap proposal has wended its way through the system. “We already are a low-carbon producer of energy, and have continued to work to lower emissions both in anticipation of future state or federal regulation and because it’s the right thing to do,” said Dominion spokesman David Botkins.

The carbon-cap initiative ties back to the debate over the electricity rate freeze. Critics have lambasted Dominion for the freeze, which arose from fears of the impact of the Obama administration’s proposed Clean Power Plan. Dominion agreed to keep its base rates fixed, which has locked in excess profits for the first couple of years, in exchange for taking the risk of asset write-downs if the federal carbon regulations forced the utility to close one or more of its coal-fired power plants. The Trump administration is rolling back the Clean Power Plan, so Dominion critics say the freeze is no longer justified. But Dominion countered that the McAuliffe initiative still could compel a reduction in carbon emissions, and that the company still is at financial risk.

Bacon’s bottom line: The point that intrigues me is the argument that a 7% increase in electricity rates would not harm Virginia consumers because, by adopting energy efficiency measures, they would offset the higher rates with lower consumption. Voila! With this new alchemy, we can impose regulations that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to comply with, and miraculously, everybody wins and nobody loses! 

Pardon my skepticism. The carbon-reduction rule may be justified (if you buy into the more alarmist predictions of the global warming movement) but let’s not pretend there is no cost to consumers. Yes, it’s true, business and homeowner investments in energy efficiency can counter the higher rates. But someone has to pay for those investments!

Dominion Announces Intention to Renew North Anna Nukes

Dominion Energy Virginia has informed the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) of its intention to file for licenses to operate two nuclear units at its North Anna Power Station in Louisa County for another 20 years.

North Anna One began commercial service in 1978, North Anna Two in 1980.  Originally licensed to operate for 40 years, both had their licenses renewed for an additional 20 years. The pair provides 1,892 net megawatts of electricity, enough electricity to power 473,000 homes. As base-load plants, they operate around the clock, except when they are taken off-line for periodic maintenance.

“Renewing North Anna Power Station’s licenses for a second 20-year period is the right thing to do for our customers, the regional economy and the environment,” said Daniel G. Stoddard, chief nuclear officer for Dominion’s nuclear generation division. “The planned relicensing of North Anna and Surry ensures that the benefits of these clean energy sources will continue to provide affordable, reliable, carbon-free electricity to our customers through the middle of the century. Our nuclear power stations have proven to be among the most-efficient and most-reliable sources of electricity in our fleet.”

North Anna directly support more than 2,000 high-paying jobs in Virginia and pays millions of dollars yearly in state and local taxes, Stoddard said. Continued operation of the units will help Dominion meet state goals for lowering carbon dioxide emissions from its fleet of power plants.

Despite nuclear’s zero-carbon attribute, many environmental groups oppose the technology on the grounds that the disposal of nuclear fuel creates its own set of environmental hazards. If the company were thwarted in its effort to re-license the nukes, it would have to acquire base-load capacity from another source. Coal, which emits more CO2 than any other power source, is out. Natural gas is much cleaner than coal, but still emits CO2, and environmentalists say that it is no better than coal once the full “life cycle,” including gas drilling and collector pipelines, is taken into account. The problem is that the environmentalists’ preferred power sources, wind and solar, are intermittent, which means they often do not produce electricity when it is needed. Battery storage is seen as solution to the intermittentcy issue, but batteries add a big new layer of cost.

Dominion argues that re-licensing its existing nuclear units, which have operated efficiently for five to six decades, (a) is not coal and does not emit CO2, (b) provides a stable source of electricity, and (c) keeps economic activity, jobs, and taxes in Virginia.

The company, which says that it foresees “no significant barriers” to renewal of the North Anna nuclear units, estimates that re-licensing and refurbishing the North Anna and Surry power stations will cost a total of $4 billion. That is roughly comparable to the cost of building four state-of-the-art gas-fired power units that provide roughly the same amount of electricity. The difference is that the cost of nuclear fuel is cheaper and less volatile than the cost of natural gas.

Another Arcane Obstacle to Solar Power

Virginia Comptroller David Von Moll

Some of the barriers to solar energy in Virginia are tucked away in the bowels of state government and the byzantine rules by which it operates.

One obstacle, since resolved, was a state rule granting solar projects an 80% tax exemption from property taxes under the guise of pollution control equipment. One would think the tax break would improve the economics of solar projects, but through a circuitous set of linkages involving the calculation of the Composite Index used in distributing state education dollars (described here) local governments would lose tax revenue from solar deals, which discouraged them from granting the necessary zoning and permitting approvals.

Jim Pierobon, writing in Southeast Energy News, has identified another obscure regulation: “An accounting rule, as interpreted by the Virginia Comptroller, effectively prevents Virginia from using a financing option used by many local governments: contracting through long-term power-purchase agreements (PPAs) with third parties to buy electricity.”

In a solar PPA, a third party project developer owns the solar farm and contracts to sell electricity to buyers such as universities or state agencies that are unable to take advantage of solar tax credits. Without the credits, many solar projects do not pencil out, and will be never be built. Writes Pierobon:

The Comptroller currently interprets a PPA to be a lease of capital equipment, and thus a debt owed by the state. Under that scenario, solar developers don’t own the electricity that they supply. That means a developer cannot claim the existing 30% federal Investment Tax Credit.

Why the state Comptroller, David Von Moll, interprets PPAs to be capital leases is a unclear to many solar developers. Neither he nor his office responded to requests for comment.

The McAuliffe administration had planned to do 25% of the installed solar capacity in state facilities as third-party PPAs, but were told by the Department of Accounts that the state could not enter into long-term PPAs.

“We’ve been trying to educate [Von Moll and his staff] as much as possible. We’re just not there yet. It’s incredibly frustrating,” said Hayes Framme, Deputy Secretary of Commerce and Trade. “State governments work certain ways to make their decisions. It’s our job to try to convince them otherwise.”

To be fair to Von Moll, there is a thin and tenuous line between solar PPAs and solar leases. Here’s how Energy Sage describes the difference:

While the terms “solar lease” and “solar PPA” are used interchangeably on this page, and are very similar in practice, there is a key difference between the two. With a solar lease, you agree to pay a fixed monthly “rent” or lease payment, which is calculated using the estimated amount of electricity the system will produce, in exchange for the right to use the solar energy system. With a solar PPA, instead of paying to “rent” the solar panel system, you agree to purchase the power generated by the system at a set per-kWh price.

Von Moll, who has worked in various positions in the Department of Public Accounts for 22 years, oversees the state’s financial management and internal control policies. He may be part of the executive branch, but it appears that he doesn’t knuckle under to pressure from the governor’s office. Whether that’s a sign of rock-ribbed integrity or pure bull-headedness, I’ll let readers render judgment.

Virginia Air Getting Cleaner

Good news is hard to find these days, so let’s celebrate what crumbs we can find: Virginia’s air is the cleanest it has been in years, the Department of Environmental Quality has announced. States the press release:

For years now, the trend for air quality in Virginia has been one of steady improvement. Pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and particles have shown consistent declines for 20 years or more. Emissions of these pollutants in Virginia have decreased by almost 60 percent in the past 20 years. This has happened in the face of increased demand for electricity and many more vehicles on Virginia’s highways.

Twenty years ago, the ozone health standard was 120 parts per billion, and dozens of Virginia localities failed to meet it. Since then, the standard has been strengthened to 70 parts per billion. Yet only on four days this summer, the season of peak ozone, did ozone readings surpass the tighter limits, and even then exceedances were limited to four localities.

Ozone is an important pollutant to control because it is commonly said to be a cause of asthma, a health issue that affects millions of Americans. States the Environmental Protection Agency: “Although the data are inconsistent, some epidemiological studies suggest that long-term exposure to ozone could play a role in the development of asthma.” There is greater scientific certainty that high ozone levels create health issues for people who already have asthma.

While the incidence and severity of asthma is tied to many things other than ozone, such as obesity and smoking, the trend to cleaner air in Virginia coincides with a decline in asthma-related fatalities. In fact, the rate of such fatalities in Virginia, once higher than the national average, was lower in 2010, the most recent year for which I could find data.

So, rejoice, people, political conflict may be driving us to despair, but life is getting better in many ways. The hundreds of billions of dollars invested in cleaning up smokestacks and auto exhaust is paying off.

Rocky Forge Wind Project Stalled: No Buyer for Its Electricity

Simulated view of Rocky Forge wind project.

The developer of what could be Virginia’s first commercial wind farm has lined up all the regulatory permits it needs, but it hasn’t started site work yet because it can’t find a buyer for the electricity. Apex Energy will not start construction by the end of this year, as planned, on the Rocky Forge project in Botetourt County, reports the Roanoke Times.

“We’re working to find the right partner to commercialize Rocky Forge,” said Apex spokeswoman Brooke Beaver wrote. “We do not yet have a specific date for the start of construction, but are working steadfastly toward that goal.”

On the positive side, Beaver said a later start date would allow Apex to take advantage of “even newer technology that will make the project even more competitive.”

Project critic Steve Neas told the Roanoke Times that he believes the wind farm’s 75-megawatt capacity is not enough to make it attractive to either a power company shopping for renewable energy or investors willing to commit to the project. “My guess is that they’re having a hard time lining up people to buy their power.”

Continues the Roanoke Times:

Apex contended in its statement that with the latest delay, the company has “the opportunity to utilize newer turbine technology, making Rocky Forge even more competitive in the market and further decreasing the cost of the energy it can produce.”

“Virginia has experienced tremendous growth in solar energy in the past year, and we look forward to adding wind energy to the generation mix.”

One Environmental Calamity I’m Not Mourning

Whatever happened to bug splats on windshields? I was actually asking myself that question a couple of months ago. Now comes a Washington Post article suggesting that other people are asking the same question — and worrying about the implications.

I remember taking road trips in the family station wagon — this would have been 50 years ago — and marveling at the bug goo that smeared the windshield like a bad Jackson Pollack painting. After a couple hundred miles, the windshield looked like a flock of starlings had unloaded on the car. Every time my dad filled up with gasoline, he’d dip a squeegee-like scraper into a bucket of soap, which every gas station kept by the gas pumps, and swiped the windshield clean.

Nobody does that anymore. I can’t remember the last time I saw a bug splat on my car. I can’t remember the last time I felt moved to squeegee the windshield.

According to the Washington Post, the decline in flying insects appears to be worldwide. Between 1989 and 2016, according to a new report, the biomass of flying insects captured in German nature preserves, all protected areas, decreased by a seasonal average of 76 percent. Other estimates have put rates of global insect biomass loss at 50 percent.

I confess, while I do worry that something dire might be happening to the environment, I don’t miss the bug splats — or the bugs. I vividly remember a movie from my youth, “The Hellstrom Chronicle.” As I recall, the moral of the movie was that insects would inherit the planet after mankind finished pillaging it. (This was before anyone worried about global warming!) Well, it turns out, the insects apparently are not taking over, not yet, and I’m OK with that.

Pipelines Clear Another Regulatory Hurdle

Another regulatory barrier to the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and Mountain Valley Pipeline has fallen. The board of trustees of the Virginia Outdoors Foundation unanimously approved Monday applications for “conversion of open space” by the two natural gas pipeline developers that propose to cross 11 VOF conservation easements.

From the outset, VOF informed the pipeline companies that their incursions would be incompatible with the conservation values of the easements, therefore triggering a process in state law known as “conversion” of open space. (See the VOF announcement here.)

The two resolutions included several conditions, including restrictions on the footprint of the pipelines and access roads, the conveyance to VOF of more than 1,100 acres of substitute land in Highland, Nelson, and Roanoke counties, and the transfer of $4.075 million in stewardship funding for the properties’ long-term care and maintenance.

The VOF easements will remain in place on the properties with overlaying permanent rights-of-way for the pipeline developers.

Last week the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted the ACP and MVP certifications of public convenience and necessity. The VOF vote eliminated one of the few remaining regulatory obstacles to the project. The pipelines still face one significant hurdle, however: meeting state regulatory standards for erosion and sediment control.

FERC Approves Atlantic Coast, Mountain Valley Pipelines

map credit: Marcellusdrilling.com

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) and Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in rulings issued Friday.

The three-person commission was divided on the issue of granting the pipelines a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, with two commission members appointed by President Trump ruling in favor while an Obama administration holdover issued a dissenting opinion.

While FERC approval was required for the two natural gas pipeline projects to advance, the battle is not over. Environmentalists and landowners remain adamantly opposed to the projects, and they have vowed to continue resisting. Major sticking points are reviews by West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina environmental agencies of pipeline impacts on water quality.

Naturally, Dominion Energy, which is the managing partner of the ACP, is delighted at news. Said Leslie Hartz, Dominion vice president of engineering & construction:

We are very pleased to receive FERC approval for this vitally important project. This is the most significant milestone yet for a project that will bring jobs, economic growth and cleaner energy to our region. In the coming days we will fully review the Certificate and finalize our plans for complying with its conditions. We will also continue working with the other state and federal agencies to complete the environmental review process and make this critically important project a reality.

All three commissioners acknowledge the need for more natural gas infrastructure to serve consumers in Virginia and North Carolina. In her dissent, Commissioner LaFleur noted that more than 90 percent of the ACP’s capacity is subscribed by public utility customers in the two states. The end use of this gas is well established on the public record and is a matter of urgent public necessity.

The FERC ruling also garnered kudos from Dominion’s business allies. This joint statement comes from Barry Duval, president of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, and Matt Yonka, president of the Virginia Building & Construction Trades Council:

This is great news for our economy, our working men and women and energy consumers all across our region. This project will serve as a catalyst for economic growth, job creation and greater energy security in our region for years to come. The hardworking men and women who built our nation are ready to get to work rebuilding our region’s infrastructure. We’re eager to see the thousands of new jobs and billions of dollars in new income this project will bring to the region.

By lowering energy costs in Virginia and North Carolina by more than $370 million a year, this pipeline will allow businesses to grow and families to save. The pipeline will also mean lower emissions and cleaner air in all of our communities as electric utilities continue making the transition from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas.

Equally predictably, pipeline foes were appalled by the ruling. This from the Allegheny-Blue Ridge Alliance, a coalition of 52 organizations in Virginia and West Virginia:

The Commission’s judgment has been made in advance of necessary and required decisions by the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the state environmental authorities in the affected states of Virginia, West Virginia and North Carolina on critical environmental issues. We concur with the thoughtful dissent of Commissioner LeFleur’s, who has served on the Commission for 7 years, raising serious questions about the basis of need for both the ACP and the Mountain Valley Pipeline and expressing concerns about environmental impacts that both projects present. The majority decision does not reflect an understanding of the issues at hand and is clearly not in the public interest. It calls into serious question the agency’s regulatory credibility.

Greg Buppert, a senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, said this: Continue reading

Trump Nixes Clean Power Plan, Gas and Solar Still Rule

Natural gas turbine at Dominion’s Greensville power plant. President Trump might have ended the regulatory “war on coal,” but he can’t change fundamental economics, which still favor gas and solar.

President Trump has never hidden his dislike of his predecessor’s Clean Power Plan, which would have required the 50 states to order their electric utilities to curtail carbon dioxide emissions in the cause of combating global warming. Nine months into the Trump administration, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chief Scott Pruitt finally has announced formal steps to repeal the plan. Reports the New York Times:

“The War on coal is over,” Mr. Pruitt said. “Tomorrow in Washington, D.C. I will be signing a proposed rule to roll back the Clean Power Plan.” …

Mr. Pruitt’s proposal for repeal will now have to go through a formal public-comment period before being finalized, a process that could take months. Mr. Pruitt will also ask the public for comment on what a replacement rule would look like, but the E.P.A. has not offered a timeline.

Admittedly, the regulatory battle is far from over. “Environmental groups and Democratic-controlled states are expected to challenge these rules on multiple fronts,” says the Times. Moreover, there is nothing to stop individual states from implementing tough CO2 standards on their own initiative. Indeed, here in Virginia, the McAuliffe administration has vowed to boost Virginia’s commitment to renewable energy.

But a rollback of the Clean Power Plan won’t change market fundamentals. Just as the natural gas fracking revolution led to natural gas displacing coal over the past decade, market forces will dictate that renewable energy assume an increasing role in the decade ahead — regardless of whether states set CO2 emission caps or not.

In its 2017 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), Dominion Virginia Energy has laid out its vision for the energy future that calls for increased natural gas and renewable energy. Under its least-cost regulatory scenario, which looks increasingly likely, Dominion won’t build any new coal- or nuclear-powered plants. It will renew licenses for its existing nuclear units but will not build a third unit at its North Anna Power Station, which by some estimates would cost $18 billion or more. The utility will build new gas-powered plants to provide base-load capacity, supplemented by a mix of solar (up to 5,200 megawatts capacity) and gas-fired combustion turbines that can quickly ramp up and down in response to volatile solar output. (Since publication of the IRP, Dominion has demonstrated a keen interest in building a pumped storage facility in Southwest Virginia, which could eliminate the need for some natural gas combustion-turbine units, but the economics of such a scheme have not been fully explored.)

Meanwhile, environmental groups have been pushing aggressively for a future electric grid dominated by renewable electricity, using energy efficiency to reduce demand and battery storage to even out fluctuations in solar output. The greens are opposed not only to building a third nuclear unit at North Anna but to re-licensing the existing units, creating a void that would have to be filled by some power source other than coal. The greens also oppose construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, which Dominion co-owns and is counting on to supply its growing fleet of natural gas base-load and combustion-turbine plants. The environmentalists are lobbying for essentially the same power mix advocated by their Green Party counterparts in Europe.

German energy policy: not working out as planned.

Interestingly, the New York Times published an article two days ago highlighting how Germany’s shift to green power has stalled. Since 2000 Germany has spent an estimated 189 billion euros, or about $222 billion, on renewable energy subsidies with the goal of cutting carbon dioxide emissions. Ironically, CO2 emissions have remained stuck at 2009 levels, even as the shift to natural gas has allowed the U.S. to reduce its CO2 output. As the retail cost of electric power has doubled since 2000 with little progress on the CO2 front to show for it, large blocs of the German electorate are getting fed up.

“Julian Hermneuwöhner is one such voter,” the Times reports. “Mr. Hermneuwöhner, a 27-year-old computer science student, said his family paid an additional €800 a year because of Energiewende.”

Germany obtains about one-third of its electricity from wind and solar, about double the rate for the U.S. But a decision after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan prompted the Germans to accelerate the phase-out of nuclear power. The only other energy source available: coal. A doubling of electricity rates and no reduction in CO2 is not a winning electoral combination.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union still supports Energiewende, the shift to renewables, but two important parties, the pro-business Free Liberals and the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party, do not.

Bacon’s bottom line: If I were a betting man, I would wager that Virginia’s mid-term energy future will be dominated by gas and solar. Wind power will remain a niche contributor unless off-shore wind comes into play a decade or more from now. The North Anna 3 nuclear unit will never be built, although Dominion will succeed over furious opposition in re-licensing its existing Surry and North Anna units. The utility will keep its existing coal-fired units in operation through their design life-times. But all the expansion in capacity will come from gas and solar.

And, yes, Dominion will need to expand capacity, even as energy efficiency dampens electricity demand nationally. The recent announcement of the new Facebook data center in Henrico County demonstrates another side of Virginia’s energy future. That single server farm will consume as much electricity as 32,500 homes. Virginia is highly competitive in the data-center industry, and it could add dozens or more data centers in the next two decades. Other states might experience declining demand for electricity, but as long as data centers represent one of Virginia’s great hopes for economic development, electricity demand will continue to grow.