Category Archives: Economic development

The Northam/Perriello Rural Poverty Plan

Let there be higher wages! Ralph Northam (left) and Tom Perriello on the campaign trail in Northern Virginia where they promoted a $15 minimum wage.

Let there be higher wages! Ralph Northam (left) and Tom Perriello on the campaign trail in Northern Virginia where they promoted a $15 minimum wage. (Photo credit: Washington Post)

Both Democratic candidates for governor, Ralph Northam and Tom Perriello, have endorsed a statewide $15-per-hour minimum wage, a sign, says the Washington Post, of how much momentum the national “Fight for $15” is achieving. (Virginia hews to the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour, which has not increased since 2009.)

Perriello backed the $15 minimum wage shortly after declaring his candidacy, and Northam followed the next day. Both candidates reiterated their support earlier this week when aligning themselves with striking workers at Reagan National Airport. Reports the Post:

“I would challenge anyone out there to go try to support themselves and support their families on $7.25 an hour,” Northam said Wednesday after his meeting with workers. “It is impossible. You can’t do it.” He said he would push to raise the minimum wage as governor by campaigning to unseat Republican lawmakers opposed to it.

“We know we have a long way to go,” Perriello told a wheelchair handler during his Thursday visit, wearing a purple Fight for $15 scarf. “This is about the dignity of work, but it’s also about economic growth in our community.”

Bacon’s bottom line: Economists have haggled endlessly for decades over the effects of the minimum wage, with neither side dealing a knockout blow. But it’s safe to say that the minimum wage would have the greatest impact on labor markets in areas where prevailing wages are the lowest — and in Virginia, those are rural areas.

Start by asking the following question: Why not raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour? Or $100 an hour? Because, even liberal economists will concede, employers will lay off workers who don’t deliver $30 or $100 in economic value. At some point the wages lost by those who lose their jobs will exceed the wages gained by those who received a pay raise. At that point the minimum wage becomes indisputably destructive. The question is at what hourly wage that threshold is crossed.

It is conceivable that a $15 minimum wage will work in the Washington metropolitan area in the sense that wage gains for lower-income workers will exceed the wages lost from employees who lose their jobs. That’s because Washington is already a high-cost-of-living, high-wage labor market, and the differential between prevailing market wages and the $15-per-hour minimum wage is relatively modest. The picture is very different in economically depressed Southside and Southwest Virginia communities where one of the few competitive advantages in the economic-development arena is a lower cost of living and a lower wage base.

The Virginia Employment Commission publishes labor market profiles of the Southwest Virginia Workforce Investment Area here and the Northern Virginia Workforce Investment Area here. Below, I extracted the average weekly wages for the largest occupational categories in Southwest Virginia (excluding government and mining/oil and gas/extraction).

For purposes of comparison, someone earning the current minimum wage and working 40 hours a week would earn $290 per week, while a $15-per-hour minimum wage would equate to $600 per week.

Clearly, such a minimum wage would have a greater impact on SW Virginia workers than NoVa workers where the average weekly wage (and by implication the average hourly wage) is 50% to 75% higher. On the plus side, the pay of SW Virginians would jump more… if they could hang onto their jobs. And there’s the rub. How many could hang onto their jobs after such a massive disruption to labor markets? While some SW businesses might survive by laying off marginal employees, one has to ask, others couldn’t even stay in business. Would a Pizza Hut franchise be able to keep the doors open if its cost of labor doubled? If not, how many business owners, store managers and others earning above the minimum wage also would lose their jobs?

Beyond the immediate impact, what would be the consequences for long-term job development? Would any corporation consider investing in SW Virginia, a region in which 11% of the workforce has an 8th grade education or less and another 12% has “some” high school, if the minimum wage were $15?

The idea of a $15-per-hour minimum wage was born in affluent urban areas with a high cost of living. It is totally inappropriate for poor rural areas with low living costs, low wage structures and high unemployment. I can think of no economic policy that would be more disastrous for Virginia’s rural regions.

Feeling Pretty Good: C-ville and Lynchburg

Charlottesville ranked 6th nationally in the Gallup/Healthways ranking of community well being, Lynchburg 8th.

Charlottesville ranked 6th nationally in the Gallup/Healthways ranking of community well being, Lynchburg 8th.

When evaluating community well being, statisticians tend to focus on objective criteria such as average income, tax levels, educational achievement, life expectancy and the like. But there also are subjective criteria involving how people feel about things. Gallup Inc., the polling organization, has partnered with Healthways, a well being and wellness provider to employers, to measure how people feel.

According to the Gallup-Healthways 2016 Community Well-Being Rankings, inhabitants of two metros in Virginia are feeling pretty darned good about themselves: Charlottesville and Lynchburg. Charlottesville scored fifth out of 189 metros on the survey, Lynchburg 8th.

Virginia’s other metros didn’t fare so well. Washington ranked 44th, Richmond 106th, Virginia Beach 107th, and Roanoke 168th. The state of Virginia scored a meager 21st among the 50 states.

Definitions of Gallup-Healthways well-being categories.

The big question is, how did Charlottesville and Lynchburg do it? One thing they have in common with each other and other high-scoring metros is size. Their populations are small compared to other metros. Big metros did not fare well in this survey. Also, both are big college towns — the University of Virginia in one, Liberty University in the other. But otherwise, they would seem to have little in common. Politically, the Charlottesville area leans liberal/Democrat, Lynchburg conservative/ Republican. Charlottesville leans secular, Lynchburg leans religious.

Still, both communities scored high  in the “social” ranking — “having supportive relationships and love in  your life.” Charlottesville did especially well in the “physical” component of the index, having good health and energy, while Lynchburg excelled in its community feeling, “liking where you live, feeling safe and having pride in your community.”

Bacon’s bottom line: Gallup/Healthways provide a useful service by quantifying community attributes that aren’t captured in government statistics. There’s more to life than GDP and household income. That’s always worth remembering.

Axes Fall after People Express Loan Guarantee Blows Up

People Express aircraft at Newport News/Williamsburg Airport. Photo credit: Daily Press

The executive director of Newport News/Williamsburg International Airport has been placed on administrative leave in the wake of a scandal involving the use of $3.55 million in state funds to help make good on a loan guarantee made to People Express airline.

The airport had backed the loan as part of a deal to get People Express to provide discount passenger service to the Newport News/Williamsburg area. The episode did not turn out well. People Express fell $100,000 behind in its passenger facility charges, and the Peninsula Airport Commission told the airline in 2014 to leave after less than three months of operation there. The company subsequently filed for bankruptcy.

Meeting in a closed session, the commission approved using the $3.55 million state funds plus $1 million in federal funds to meet its loan obligations. Such a use violated a 30-year state policy. Virginia’s transportation secretary Aubrey Layne called it the largest unauthorized use of state aviation funds ever, reports David Ress with the Daily Press.

Support for the airport evaporated as the state, the City of Hampton and the James City County Economic Development Authority decided to withhold payments to the body. In the most recent developments, reported this morning, the Newport News City Manager has resigned as an airport commissioner, the commission ended its six-decade-old relationship with its law firm, and the airport’s executive director Ken Spirito was put on paid administrative leave until completion of  a state audit.

Bacon’s bottom line: Let this be a warning to citizens serving on local commissions, authorities and other public entities. It seems easy and painless to guarantee a loan as a way to lure a business to your community. But if the loan needs a guarantee, there’s probably a lot of risk attached to it, and you could very well be on the hook for it. That’s what officials of the Peninsula Airport Authority learned to the detriment of their careers.

Kudos to the Daily Press, by the way, for bird-dogging this story every step along the way.

Unplanned Obsolescence: Fairfax County’s Office Parks

Aging, outdated, not within walking distance of anything.... 75% of Fairfax County's commercial/industrial real estate is obsolete.

Aging, ugly, outdated, not within walking distance of anything….75% of Fairfax County’s office space is obsolete.

There is some scary data hidden in Fairfax County’s budget numbers. Back in 1990, commercial/ industrial property comprised 26.7% of the county’s total real estate property tax base. Revenues from high office valuations gave the county leeway to keep the tax rate low — great for homeowners. But the commercial/ industrial share has declined since then to 19.12%, which puts Virginia’s largest political jurisdiction in a bind as county officials prepare the Fiscal 2018 budget.

That commercial/industrial crucial ratio has been known to jump around, depending upon market conditions. The 26.7% number, the highest rate recorded, came only seven years after the lowest rate recorded, 16.12% in 1983, according to a County Executive Budget Presentation published in February. So, things can change. But there is reason to think that the ratio will stay low for several years more.

The office vacancy rate in Fairfax County runs around 20 million square feet out of 116.4 million square feet. Meanwhile the Metro Silver Line is spurring new construction as employers seek Class A office space with mass transit access. Almost 2 million square feet are under construction in Virginia’s largest office center, Tysons, and nine major applications with 9 million square feet are under review.

While the new construction is good news for the Fairfax tax base, here’s what’s not: The executive presentation quotes the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority as saying that 73% of the county’s office space is obsolete.

I’m not sure how the EDA defines “obsolete,” but it sounds ominous. I’m guessing that it means the buildings are aging physically, need re-wiring for state-of-the-art telecommunications, and/or have antiquated layouts incompatible with collaborative work styles. Furthermore, I’d hazard a guess, the office parks reflect a ’70s- and ’80s-era autocentric design, which means they lack the walkable ambience that Millennial employees are looking for these days.

It’s one thing to invest millions in modernizing an office building in a desirable location; it’s another investing millions to update a building in an office park where no one wants to work anymore. I would hypothesize that a large percentage of the county’s commercial/industrial office buildings will continue to get older and more out-of-date. Rents will decline, property values will decline, and the county tax base will continue to erode.

Let this be a warning to other suburban counties across Virginia. Unless they can figure out how to reinvent their old office parks as walkable, mixed-use districts where people these days prefer to work,  they, too, will find themselves heirs to obsolete office parks that leech value and undermine their tax base. The difference is that Fairfax County could see a revival if President Trump succeeds in ramping up defense spending. Henrico, Chesterfield, Virginia Beach and other jurisdictions will have no such luck.

(Hat tip: Andrew Roesell.)

Tech, Carilion Launch VTC Innovation Fund

The VTC Innovation Fund will build the innovation ecosystem centered on the Jefferson College of Health Science.

The VTC Innovation Fund will build the innovation ecosystem centered on the Jefferson College of Health Science.

Virginia Tech and Carilion Clinic have teamed up to form a $15 million venture capital fund in the hope of accelerating the growth of biotech companies taking root around Blacksburg and Roanoke, reports the Roanoke Times.

The VTC Innovation Fund aims to close seven to 10 deals over the next 10 years. By leveraging its money from other financial sources, managers hope the average startup will be able to raise between $2 million and $10 million. About 60% of the deals will be in life sciences. Although the main focus will be the Roanoke-Blacksburg area, the fund will consider investments elsewhere in Virginia or enterprises with strong ties to Tech or Carilion.

“When we looked at our grand vision going forward, we see that the innovation ecosystem has a few holes in it,” Virginia Tech President Timothy Sands said. “One is in the venture capital area. It’s not the only one, but it’s one we identified that we could do something about.”

Virginia Tech and Carilion are partnering to build a medical school and research institute in Roanoke, the Jefferson College of Medical Sciences, which stands at the center of what they hope will evolve into a biomedical industry cluster. Tech also is building a cutting-edge interdisciplinary program in neuroscience.

The Tech/Carilion duo is following a parallel path to Inova Health System in Northern Virginia, which is collaborating with George Mason University and the University of Virginia to build an biomedical cluster at the Center for Personalized Medicine. Inova has pledged to put $100 million in to venture capital in support of the innovation ecosystem there.

A third partner in the VTC Innovation Fund is Middleland Capital, a Washington, D.C.-based investment firm, which will manage the Roanoke fund and invest $500,000 to $1.5 million of its own capital, reports the Washington Business Journal. Connections with experienced Washington-area venture investors likely will provide a depth of expertise and access to outside capital that entrepreneurs in the Roanoke-Blacksburg area previously lacked.

“We want to focus on the absolute best and the absolute brightest and the shining stars of the region,” said Scott Horner, managing director of Middleland. “We want groups from outside the region to be able to look here and say, ‘Yes there is good stuff in the region.’”

How Inova Hopes to Reinvent Health Care

Inova is betting that personalized medicine + big data can transform health care.

Inova is betting that personalized medicine + big data can transform health care. Illustration credit: Richmond Times-Dispatch

Published this morning in the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

As Republicans and Democrats brace for a battle royal over Obamacare and what might replace it, they would do well to pay heed to an important experiment south of the Potomac.

In Congress the debate centers on who pays for health care and how costs can be shifted to someone else — a zero-sum game. At Inova Health System, the dominant health-care provider in Northern Virginia, the focus is on improving peoples’ health at lower cost by practicing medicine differently. If Inova is successful, everyone wins.

The plan at Inova’s Center for Personalized Health, located across the road from Inova’s flagship hospital in Fairfax County, is to draw upon diverse data — electronic health records, user-generated data (such as fitness trackers and other wearable devices), family history, social milieu, and a patient’s genetic and biochemical make-up — to develop wellness and treatment strategies tailored to the individual.

“Take a cancer drug that’s effective 30 percent of the time,” says Todd Stottlemyer, CEO of the center. “A better way to understand it is that the drug is 100 percent effective for 30 percent of the people who possess certain genes or proteins.”

If physicians can target the treatment to the patient’s unique biochemistry, they can avoid giving drugs that don’t work. That leads to better health for the patient and saves society a lot of money.

***

Inova is building its Center for Personalized Medicine on the old Exxon-Mobil corporate campus, and adapting it for use as a medical research center. Construction is underway there for the Schar Cancer Institute, a multidisciplinary institute where precision medicine will be practiced.

The Inova Clinic will provide genomic testing and consultations. Other centers, institutes and incubators will conduct research, crunch data and, hopefully, spin off new business enterprises. Meanwhile, the Center has already begun recruiting national-caliber scientists.

Many other medical colleges and research centers around the country are doing similar things. What sets Inova apart is not just treating disease but keeping people well in the first place.

Let’s say a 48-year-old woman has breast cancer. Here’s how Stottlemyer sees things working: Physicians will want to understand her genetic make-up. They’ll want to know the biomarkers of the particular type of cancer she has. They will design a treatment, based upon the unique facts of her case, that will target the biomarkers and offer a higher probability of success than conventional approaches.

But the work doesn’t end there. What if the woman’s daughters have the same genetic markers? Should they screen more aggressively? Should they have mastectomies before getting the disease themselves? Inova will have genetic counselors trained in interpreting the scientific data and then walking patients through the complex decision-making process. Says Stottlemyer: “We want to empower good, informed choices.”

***

Inova will draw upon Northern Virginia’s strength in information technology. Harnessing so-called “Big Data” will help researchers and practitioners gain insight into not only individual patients but entire demographic groups.

The Center will cobble together health records, family histories, genome sequences, and sociodemographic statistics, and then compare the data against its database that houses more than 10,000 genome sequences from 134 countries of birth around the world.

The nonprofit health system is sinking hundreds of millions of dollars of its own money into the Center — acquiring the Exxon-Mobil building, funding venture capital, setting up the institutes and centers — and supplementing it with state dollars, philanthropic dollars, and funds from corporations and academic partners.

Late last year, Inova inked a $112 million deal with the University of Virginia School of Medicine allowing U.Va. medical students to participate in the discovery and commercialization of treatments for cancer and other diseases.

Stottlemyer sees the launch of a new center of research and innovation as a booster shot for Northern Virginia’s economy, which is still staggering under the impact of sequestration-related cuts in defense spending. Building bridges to U.Va., Virginia Tech, and Virginia Commonwealth University should provide a stimulus to downstate economic development, too, he says.

But the ultimate justification for a nonprofit enterprise like Inova to spend millions on an initiative like the Center for Personalized Health is to help the people of Northern Virginia and the commonwealth to enjoy better health at lower cost. When the center opens for business next year, health teams will disseminate insights from the center’s research to Inova hospitals throughout Northern Virginia.

The U.S. health care system is organized around treating people when they get sick, not keeping them well. “It’s a transactional system,” says Stottlemyer. Doctors and hospitals get paid only when they conduct a test or procedure or other service. “We’re trying to change the game.”

George Mason Achieves R1 Research Classification

Frank Krueger (left) is co-director of the Center for the Study of Neuro-economics. Photo credit: George Mason University.

George Mason University has received the coveted “R1” status bequeathed by the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. Only 115 institutions across the country earn the “highest research activity” designation.

States the cover story of the winter edition of Mason Spirit magazine:

About 20 years ago, Mason thoughtfully began building a research portfolio that ranged from public policy to the physical sciences. Mason’s total research expenditures were nearly $27 million in 1995, increasing to about $65 million in 2005, and jumping to $101 million in 2016. The university is setting its sights high and aiming or $250 million by 2025.

Bacon’s bottom line: From an economic development perspective, Mason’s climb to R1 status is a strong positive. Northern Virginia needs a strong research university to bolster the region’s biomedical and IT sectors.

From an undergraduate student perspective, however, the R&D emphasis is a mixed blessing. Stronger research programs create opportunities for some undergrads. GMU’s engineering program, for instance, has built extensive partnerships with Northern Virginia industry that makes summer internships more readily available. But boosting research is expensive — lab facilities and star faculty don’t come cheap. Building research programs puts pressure on university administrations to increase tuition. Between the 2006-07 school year and the 2015-16 school year, the cost of in-state attendance at GMU increased 57%, more than the 53% average for all of Virginia’s public, four-year schools.

The trade-offs are complicated. Which delivers more value to Virginians — economic development opportunities stemming from R&D or from lower barriers to attendance for undergraduate students? You won’t find those questions highlighted in the glossy, university magazines.

Owens & Minor Goes for Millennials, Walkable City

Owens & Minor wants Millennials,and Millennials want 15-minute, livable communities. Graphic credit: Institute for the Future

Good economic news for the Richmond region: Medical supply giant Owens & Minor Inc. announced plans Thursday to open a client engagement center in downtown Richmond that will employ 500 people. Jobs will average about $53,700 in annual pay.

In making the announcement Governor Terry McAuliffe made much of the fact that Richmond competed against 60 other cities in a year-long search process. Less was made of the fact that Owens & Minor, which is located in the Mechanicsville suburb of Richmond, chose to locate in the central city rather than one of the region’s outlying counties.

The reason? “We want to attract the millennial generation,” CEO Cody Phipps told the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “We did our research. The millennial generation is going to be 50-plus percent of the workforce in the next few years, and they want to live in urban areas. They want to be downtown. They want to work in a state-of-the-art space. We like that we can draw from the universities around here.”

Owens & Minor will make Riverfront Plaza in downtown Richmond its newest home.

Owens & Minor will make Riverfront Plaza in downtown Richmond its newest home. Photo credit: Richmond Times-Dispatch

I don’t know who conducted Phipps’ research, but I know of one outfit in town that does specialize in generational marketing — The Institute for Tomorrow, which is affiliated with the Southeastern Institute of Research (SIR). (I worked for SIR about ten years ago.) Two days before Owens & Minor’s announcement, Managing Partner Matt Thornhill tweeted presciently, “Winning communities of tomorrow are 15-minute livable communities.”

By way of elaboration, he blogged about recent research conducted for the Virginia Secretary of Transportation. In a survey of 600 people around the U.S. who had just moved or were considering moving more than 100 miles, four out of five agreed with the statement, “Having access to stores, restaurants, and services close to my home (within about 15 minutes) is very important to me.” Almost as important was living withing a 15 minute commute of work.

It is often said that Millennials want to live “downtown” where it’s hip and cool and there are coffee shops and microbreweries. According to a recent Urban Land Institute study, though, only 37% of Millennial consider themselves to be a “city person,” wrote Thornhill; 36% classified themselves as “suburbanites” and 26% as “small town/country” people.

While there is nothing inevitable about Millennials wanting to live and work downtown, they are “hard-wired to be in community with each other,” Thornhill observed. “Thanks in part to doing school projects in teams from their middle school years onward, Millennials like to collaborate and trust in decisions made by the wisdom of the crowd. … They want neighborhoods where they can walk, bike, and use transit to get around.”

This community mindset, opined Thornhill, will drive the growth of “activity centers” of 15-minute livable communities. Activity centers don’t have to be in traditional cities (although most are).  “Builders, developers, urban planners, and government officials are now catching up to the changing preferences of consumers and looking for ways to in-fill activity centers across their metropolitan landscape.”

Thornhill stops his analysis there. But as I think about the Owens & Minor decision, it’s not clear that urban planners and government officials actually have gotten the message. While most of the City of Richmond fits the definition of a 15-minute walkable community, there are only flyspecks of walkability in neighboring Henrico and Chesterfield counties. In Henrico County the one area that potentially has the critical mass to compete with downtown Richmond, the Innsbrook Office Park, was rezoned for urban mixed use back in 2010. But re-development has stalled for more than six years due to inflexible application of the zoning code.

Absent a dramatic change of thinking and practice in the suburban counties, it looks like the future of the Richmond metropolitan region belongs to the city. Everything old is new again: Richmond possesses the key elements of walkability — moderate density, mixed uses, grid streets and timeless architecture — inherited from a past era of urban grandeur. The counties are stuck with suburban sprawl. Expect to see more headlines like Owen & Minor’s in the region’s future.

Many Virginians Prefer Training over Incentives

Graphic credit: VCU

The Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs has published a public opinion poll delving into Virginians’ attitudes toward a wide range of issues relating to K-12, higher ed, and workforce training. The poll appears to be methodologically sound. I will use the poll results as stepping stones to address several topics.

Workforce training: When asked how to prioritize the spending of state economic development dollars, according to the poll results shown above, Virginians were evenly split between expanding workforce training and education programs over providing financial incentives to recruit new business or retain existing business.

I construe these results as evidence of potentially strong public support for my proposal, elaborated upon here, to scrap the Commonwealth’s Opportunity Development Fund, which is used to dish out financial incentives to corporations expanding in Virginia, and beefing up the state’s targeted workforce training program. The idea: Instead of attracting corporations with cash, we entice them with a skilled workforce.

As I noted in that column, addressing the jobs-skills mismatch is arguably the greatest economic challenge facing Virginia today. If a corporation can’t find the workers it needs, it won’t consider a community no matter how big the incentives. Furthermore, it makes more sense to invest in Virginia workers than subsidizing out-of-state companies that may or may not be willing to make a long-term commitment to the state.

How Virginia’s Slowing Population Growth Plays Out Locally

Virginia's population growth is slowing, but four distinct patterns emerge within the state.

Virginia’s population growth is slowing overall, but four distinct patterns emerge within the state.

Speaking of slower population growth… Even though Virginia’s population growth is slowing overall, the dynamics play out differently at a local and regional level.

Luke Juday, director of planning for the City of Waynesboro, has developed a useful schema for examining Virginia’s cities and counties. He has created a matrix based on two variables: whether a locality is experiencing net in-migration or out-migration, and whether it is experiencing natural increase or natural decrease. Writing in the January 2017 issue of the Virginia News Letter, he describes four categories:

Booming. Booming localities are experiencing both in-migration and natural population increase. One sub-set of this group consists of central metropolitan areas such as Arlington County, and the cities of Alexandria, Charlottesville and Richmond, which are experiencing a renaissance fueled by waves of incoming young adults. Another sub-set is comprised of suburban or exurban counties experiencing significant in-migration. Three examples are Montgomery, Albemarle and Rockingham counties.

The great challenge for booming counties, writes Juday, is accommodating that growth. Providing room for an expanding population can keep housing prices from skyrocketing, thus avoiding future issues. On the other hand, these localities need to be sure that what they build withstands the test of time.

Shedding. Shedding communities continue to gain population through natural increase but are experiencing out-migration. Examples include Fairfax County, Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton and Newport News. In some instances, the key driver is a high cost of housing and limited housing options that push young families out of the jurisdiction. In others, however, Juday suggests, inner cities may be affordable but they’re not desirable. The challenge is to find new ways to add housing and/or make the locality a more attractive place to live.

Attracting. These communities are losing population through natural decrease, yet still manage to attract in-migration. This pattern is particularly common in the New River, Central Piedmont, Blue Ridge and Chesapeake Bay areas that can exploit their natural beauty to attract older adults in compensation of lower birth rates.

Declining. Declining localities are experiencing both out-migration and natural decrease. Residents are aging, and no one is replacing them. These counties are concentrated in Southwest and Southside Virginia, with a smattering along the Blue Ridge. These jurisdictions face the greatest challenge. How do they promote economic development, and how do they maintain the level of government services?

Declining localities, suggests Juday, need to cope with eroding populations the same way that Youngstown, Ohio, did in the 1990s: planning for population decrease by structuring public service and infrastructure projects to be sustainable with a smaller population. Regional cooperation is one way to accomplish that aim.

For both attracting and declining communities, Juday also suggests linking to a nearby metropolitan area to entice highly educated and well-paid commuters to patronize local services and agricultural businesses. Such a strategy would likely be more successful than trying to attract new industry. Floyd County reversed population by attracting workers who enjoyed the county’s quality of life and commuted to the Blacksburg metropolitan area. Counties outside of Washington, D.C., have seen similar trends.

Similarly, these localities can find ways to serve metropolitan economies from afar, most obviously by attracting retirees and vacationers. The Chesapeake Bay counties, Blue Ridge counties, and counties around Smith Mountain Lake have reinvigorated local economies by appealing to outsiders who build and purchase homes.