Category Archives: Budgets

How Medicaid Is Cannibalizing Virginia’s Budget

Source: JLARC

Three big trends are worth noting from the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission 2017 state spending update, a review of state spending over the previous 10 years.

First, General Fund spending has been constrained by limited revenue growth resulting from Virginia’s weak economy. The increase in spending has averaged 2.0% per year. Adjusted for inflation and population growth, General Fund spending actually declined 1% over the decade.

Second, the Medicaid program has crowded out spending for other priorities. Medicaid hogged 60% of all General Fund revenue growth over the decade. Medicaid’s share of the General Fund pie increased by 73%.

Third, the healthy growth in non-General Fund spending was driven in large part by tuition increases at Virginia’s colleges and universities. In other words, when faced by stagnant revenue and untouchable Medicaid spending increases, legislators cut what was cuttable. They reduced state support for higher education knowing that colleges and universities could fall back upon the expedient of raising tuition.

Cheerful thought of the day: As Virginia’s population ages, Medicaid spending will go one way — up — and it will continue to squeeze other spending categories. Here’s the spin that Republican legislators put on the JLARC report:

House Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford: “Once again, this annual report from JLARC shows that the increasing cost of Virginia’s current Medicaid program is crowding out needed funding for our public schools, colleges and universities, roads, and law enforcement officers. We consistently argued that Virginia can barely afford its existing Medicaid program, let alone the massive cost of expansion, and this report vindicates that position.”

Speaker-designee Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights: “It’s a simple proposition: if you cannot afford your mortgage payment, you don’t build a new addition to your house. Virginia’s current Medicaid program covers around 1 in every 8 Virginians, and as this report shows, the costs are staggering and continue to climb, despite ongoing reform efforts. It would be financially irresponsible to ask taxpayers to fund the massive expansion contemplated under the Affordable Care Act.”

Del. S. Chris Jones, R-Suffolk: “Even as we instituted major reforms aimed at bending the cost curve, and controlled spending growth in other areas of state government, Medicaid costs continue to increase dramatically. This growth eats into funding that could be used for our teachers, law enforcement officers, and hard working state employees.”

Bacon’s bottom line: Yeah, the Republican leaders are stingy bastards for not expanding Medicaid. But the alternative is worse. Latest news on the Boomergeddon front: The state of Illinois, which expanded its Medicaid program in 2013, incidentally, and now has to cover 10% of the expanded costs not funded by the federal government, has $16.5 billion in unpaid bills. The state also has $200 billion in total liabilities, including pension debt. Meanwhile, pundits are asking if debt-ridden Chicago will become the next Detroit. One good recession, and it will be.

To see what it’s like to operate a government bordering on insolvency, watch Puerto Rico flail as it tries to recover from Hurricane Maria. It’s not a pretty picture. It’s easy to be compassionate when you’re paying with other peoples’ money. When other peoples’ money runs out, everything goes all to hell.

Five Localities under Severe Fiscal Stress

Petersburg isn’t the only Virginia locality with serious fiscal problems, according to an analysis prepared by the Auditor of Public Accounts. But Auditor Martha S. Mavredes isn’t willing yet to publicly identify the other two cities and two counties that appear to be in bad shape, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

The fiscal assessment, conducted at the request of the General Assembly, uses data filed in local governments’ Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports to develop ten financial ratios, including four that measure the health of the locality’s general fund. The scoring system establishes 16 as the minimum threshold for fiscal stability. Petersburg and another city, identified only as City A, scored below 5. Yet another city and two counties also scored below 16, while two localities, Hopewell and Manassas Park, have yet to submit financial data for 2016.

Mavredes made the presentation Monday in a meeting with a newly established joint legislative subcommittee on fiscal stress. She asked for time to notify the jurisdictions of their scores and to begin discussions to confirm that the financial assessments were accurate.

A major question was when the data should be made public. Sen. Emmett W. Hanger, Jr., subcommittee chair, said that it would be premature to identify localities before notifying them and verifying the numbers used to assess their condition. But others stressed the value of making the data public. “Knowing and not taking any affirmative actions is almost malfeasance,” said House Appropriations Chair S. Chris Jones, R-Suffolk, a former city mayor.

According to the T-D:

“City A” scored below the threshold the past three years, dropping to 4.25 last year.

“City B” dropped from a score just under 50 in 2014 to between 13 and 14 in each of the past two years.

“County A” shows “consistently low” scores, in the 6 to 8 range.

“County B” tumbled from a score of 21 in 2014 to just over 11 last year.

Two other counties showed steep declines over the three years surveyed, falling to just above and below the 16-point threshold.

Bacon’s bottom line: Mavredes is right to confirm the data before sparking a political turmoil. And she’s right to inform the localities of their low scores before informing the general public — they need an opportunity to get their act together before the bad news drops. On the other hand, Jones is certainly right to say that the sooner this data is made public the better. Localities should not be allowed to sweep their problems under the rug, allowing their situations to deteriorate even further.

One more point: I hope the Auditor of Public Accounts makes the scores available for all jurisdictions. The public should know whether their local government is in strong condition or on the financial edge. Everyone can benefit from the state’s analytical tools, not just localities in crisis.

Update: Tim Wise pointed me to the following chart included in materials submitted to the Joint Subcommittee on Local Government Fiscal Stress. These classifications, which are based on FY 2014 data, reflect revenue capacity, revenue effort and median household income.

Most of the severely stressed localities are cities — not just mill towns with an eroding economic base but a cluster of local governments — older cities, mostly — in Hampton Roads.

McAuliffe: Build up Budgetary Reserves

I have to agree with Governor Terry McAuliffe on this one: The General Assembly should put $121.5 million from the FY 2017 budget surplus into a newly created financial reserve. Moreover, I find his logic impeccable:

“Given the level of federal and economic uncertainty, I would suggest to each or you that any effort to build up liquidity and cash reserves is a wise course of action,” McAuliffe said while addressing General Assembly money committees yesterday.

Right on!

The Commonwealth ran a $136.6 million budget surplus last fiscal year. After making mandatory deposits in special funds, such as one to help localities make water quality improvements, the state has $121. 5 million left over to do with as legislators please, reports the Richmond Times-DispatchIt’s not easy for a politician to resist spending the money, but McAuliffe’s instincts are absolutely correct.

The governor’s advice comes against a backdrop of increasing concern about Virginia’s ability to maintain its AAA bond rating. In April Standard and Poors downgraded the state’s financial outlook from stable to negative due to uncertainty over federal spending and the drawing down of the state’s Revenue Stabilization Fund to balance the budget the past two years. The legislators who created the so-called Rainy Day fund visualized tapping the reserve in years when revenues actually declined, not merely when they increased below expectations. The details are not clear from press accounts, but the new reserve apparently is distinct from the Rainy Day fund.

The governor is not likely to get any push-back from legislators. “We’re on the same page as far as all excess revenue going into the revenue reserve fund,” said House Appropriations Chairman Chris S. Jones, R-Suffolk, after the governor’s speech.

Virginia faces a future of chronic fiscal stress and economic uncertainty. Medicaid spending will continue to gobble an increasing share of state spending. The state does not meet its own standards for providing support to K-12 education, it has fallen behind in support for higher education, and it still faces massive unfunded pension liabilities. Meanwhile, the economy is stuck in slow-growth mode, providing little basis for thinking that a surge in tax revenue will bring in a miraculous gusher of cash.

Long-term, Virginia needs to re-think how it delivers and pays for core services such as transportation, infrastructure, health care, and education. There is no indication that either the governor or the legislature has ambitions to do more than tinker at the margins of institutional reform. Accordingly, the only alternative is to adopt an ultra-cautious approach to budgeting: Build up the rainy-day fund, add to the newly created financial reserve, accelerate payments to the Virginia Retirement System, and halt the budgetary gimmickry.

$150 Million a Year More for WMATA? Good Luck with That!

Source: Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transit. (Click for larger image.)

Downstate Virginia legislators are inclined to block increased capital funding for Washington’s dysfunctional heavy-rail commuter system unless the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) undertakes serious structural reforms.

WMATA officials say they need about $15.5 billion for capital spending over the next 10 years to work through a massive backlog of deferred maintenance. Virginia’s state-government share would be about $150 million a year over and above the $200 million it allocates annually to operations and capital spending.

“I want value. I’m willing to deliver,” said state Sen. Mark Obenshain, R-Rockingham, in a meeting of the Senate Finance Committee yesterday, reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “But I want to see problems solved. And all too often when we talk about solving problems, the easy way to solve it is just throw more money at it. It’s a workplace problem; it’s an efficiency problem.”

Convincing constituents that giving Metro more money is a hard sell when in his district the Robert O. Norris Bridge “is literally falling into the river,” said Sen. Ryan T. McDougle, R-Hanover. “How is it that I can go to my people and say, ‘We’re going to spend money on an organization where we have no control from the state, we have no say so in the administration based on the board is put together? … There’s no way I can justify a vote to spend that kind of money for an entity that we have this little control over and is refusing to change how that structure is done.”

(For the record, the Robert O. Norris Bridge is not “literally” falling into the Rappahannock River. Transportation Secretary Aubrey Layne told the committee that the state does not even consider it to be structurally deficient.)

Ray LaHood, the former U.S. Transportation Secretary chosen by Governor Terry McAuliffe to review WMATA’s performance and governance, told the Finance Committee that he is trying to develop consensus around four areas: WMATA’s governance structure, its funding structure, its legacy labor costs, and maintenance.

The current management team has cut 1,000 of 1,300 WMATA workers, mostly nonunion employees and tightened ethics and nepotism policies. Also, said LaHood, “We’re going to try to fix the governance part so you feel you do have a voice. We can figure out how to fix your bridge and have a good transportation — Metro system — in Washington, D.C., that you can be proud of.”

Bacon’s bottom line: Obenshain and McDougle are absolutely right. Virginia should not fork over one red cent until WMATA can prove it won’t become a fiscal black hole. It appears that the new management team has taken some important steps with the nonunion workforce, but the real challenge will be extracting major concessions from the union. If it chooses to strike, the union can virtually shut down Washington, D.C. The only way — the only way — for Virginia legislators to stiffen management’s spine in a confrontation is to withhold that $150 million a year.

Even if WMATA delivers needed reforms, pumping another $150 million a year into the authority would aggravate an already lopsided distribution of rail and transit revenues.

As can be seen in the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transit’s fiscal 2017 budget atop this post, DRPT hands out a total of $437 million a year in grants to cover operational expenses and capital spending for rail, buses and handicapped transportation around the state. Of that amount, $303 million already goes to Northern Virginia. Adding another $150 million a year to that sum would favor Northern Virginia even more lopsidedly — boosting its share from 69% of the DRPT budget to 77%.

Where would the money come from? Shifting money from inside the DRPT budget would eviscerate non-WMATA programs, most of them downstate. Most likely the money would have to come from road & highway spending. Virginia Department of Transportation funds allocated to construction spending in fiscal 2017 amount to about $802 million. Taking the WMATA money from roads & highways would reduce construction spending by 19%. Not just one year, but for 10 years.

Even Northern Virginia lawmakers might balk at that.

Standard & Poor’s Rains on Candidate Parades

Standard & Poor's "negative" rating on Virginia's AAA bonds could squelch candidates' plans for spending sprees and tax cuts.

Standard & Poor’s “negative” rating on Virginia’s AAA bonds could squelch candidates’ plans for spending sprees and tax cuts.

When you run for governor in Virginia, you have to make promises, and when you make promises, the only ones that cut through the media clutter are vows to cut taxes or launch expansive new spending programs.

Thus, this year, Republican candidate Ed Gillespie has rolled out a plan to cut taxes by $1.25 billion (assuming tax-revenue forecasts allow it), Democrat Ralph Northam proposes to eliminate the sales tax on groceries at a cost of $500 million, Republic Corey Stewart pledges to abolish the income tax entirely, and Democrat Tom Perriello has touted spending proposals that would jack up spending by $1 billion. Republican Frank Wagner wants to ramp up transportation spending, but he at least proposes a gasoline tax increase to pay for it.

Amidst all these promises, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings has issued a sobering warning. While the firm affirmed Virginia’s AAA bond rating, it has dialed back its outlook from “stable” to “negative,” writes Jeff Schapiro in the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Schapiro paraphrases Secretary of Finance Ric Brown as saying:

S&P is worried about two things, both of which are inextricably bound: the cash cushion the state maintains against a reversal in the economy and doubts about Trump-era federal spending, which would significantly increase defense spending — and Virginia’s nagging dependence on D.C.

S&P cited the big withdrawal — about $600 million — from the so-called rainy day fund that Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, and the legislature used to help close a $1.5 billion hole in the budget attributed to sequestration.

With a balance in the emergency account of only $281 million, the credit agency views “this as a low level of reserves relative to similarly rated peers and a situation which could weaken the commonwealth’s ability to respond to economic and financial downturns in the future,” said Brown.

Concern about the draw-down of the rainy day fund is easy enough to understand. Less comprehensible is S&P’s worries about the Trump budget, which includes a proposed $50 billion in increased defense spending. The budget may or may not be good for the nation (we can debate that another time), but it would be unquestionably good for Northern Virginia’s and Hampton Roads’ defense-heavy economies.

Whatever… S&P has its reasons. And state legislators are paying attention. When Schapiro asked Chris Jones, R-Suffolk, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, if tax cuts and spending hikes are justified, he replied: “From my perspective, I have an obligation to the commonwealth to have a structurally balanced budget that is conservative and prudent.” In other words, Jones is extremely cautious regarding any big spending and tax-cutting plans.

Update: In a statement released today, Gillespie is using Standard & Poor’s announcement to double down on his tax plan. He regards his 10% across-the-board cut to state income tax rates as part of the tonic — along with changes to education and workforce training, regulatory reform and a new approach to economic development — needed to “spark the natural, organic economic growth our Commonwealth needs.”

I still like Gillespie’s tax plan, but spending pressure from Medicaid, K-12 schools, higher-ed, mental health and other sources is not abating. The news from S&P reduces Virginia’s margin for error.

Trump Budget Bullet Barely Grazes NoVa

President Trump’s proposed budget would cost the Washington metropolitan region up to 24,600 jobs and billions in lost salaries and procurement spending, according to a new analysis by regional economist Stephen Fuller.

But Washington’s Virginia suburbs would get off easier than Maryland and the District of Columbia, reports the Washington Business Journal. The district would lose 14,000 to 15,000 jobs and Maryland would lose 5,500 to 6,000. But in Northern Virginia, where cuts to the federal bureaucracy would be partially offset by an increase in defense spending, would lose only 500 to 3,600 jobs.

Overall federal spending in the Washington region would drop between $4.2 billion to $5 billion, reducing growth in the region’s gross domestic product by 1%. If GDP tracks job losses, the impact on Northern Virginia will be even milder.

Bacon’s bottom line: Trump’s budget will not be enacted as submitted. Congress will tinker, undoubtedly sparing some non-defense programs on Trump’s chopping block. (I’m rooting for preservation of funds for Chesapeake Bay restoration.) But assuming that Fuller’s projections are in the ballpark, it doesn’t look like Virginia has much to worry about. The loss of 500 to 3,600 jobs in Northern Virginia’s dynamic economy will cause no more than a burp in growth.

Maybe We Should Call It the “Cloudy Day” Fund

From rainy day fund to cloudy day fund.

From rainy day fund to cloudy day fund.

The General Assembly managed to close a $1.5 billion budget shortfall in the budget it just passed, but don’t credit legislators with a lot of fiscal discipline. More than a third of the gap was closed by drawing down Virginia’s Revenue Stabilization Fund, more commonly known as the “rainy day” fund.

The idea behind the fund was to have a reserve to draw upon during times of acute fiscal distress such as a recession. But the economy, though tepid, is growing, employment is increasing, incomes are rising, and state revenues are climbing — just not as rapidly as forecast.

Michael Cassidy, president of the Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis, has written the best analysis I’ve seen of how lawmakers closed the revenue shortfall.

By far the biggest piece of the pie comes from drawing down the maximum allowable amount from the rainy day fund. That alone covers more than a third of the shortfall.

It is certainly preferable to draw $567  million from the rainy day fund than to make $567 million in additional cuts to core services. At the same time, it’s important to remember that this fund is intended to help Virginia get through tough economic times.

Also important: The average amount of time between U.S. recessions since 1945 has been five years. We’re now almost eight years into the recovery from the last recession. And by the end of the budget period, the fund will be less than one-quarter of the size it was before that recession, even before accounting for inflation.

Make no mistake: There will be another recession — and Virginia needs to be better prepared for it. The state can’t keep drawing from the rainy day fund instead of dealing directly with its structural revenue problems.

Bacon’s bottom line: I couldn’t have put it better myself. While Cassidy and I might disagree on the remedy, we are 100% in accord about the problem. Given current economic growth prospects, Virginia’s budget has deep structural issues, and drawing down the rainy day fund today will make the pain even more acute when a recession hits, as it inevitably will.

One approach to dealing with the structural issues is to raise taxes. Well, we raised taxes during the Warner administration, and raised them again during the McDonnell administration. While those tax increases papered over the structural budget imbalances for a time, revenue gaps inevitably re-emerged. Unless we want to slide down the slippery slope of raising taxes every five or six years until we look like New York or New Jersey, we need to fundamentally re-think the way we deliver government services.

Tweaking the system won’t hack it. We need fundamental change. I will continue to explore alternatives — from reforming land use patterns to enacting school vouchers to Uber-izing the transportation system — on this blog.

No Magical Solutions for Trump

Says Rep. Tom Cole, R-Oklahoma: Trump’s numbers don’t add up.

Someone in the national press corps is finally focusing on an issue less ephemeral than Donald Trump’s tweets: the fiscal disaster that looms if all of the president’s programs are enacted. Writes Rachel Blade and Josh Downey in Politico:

“I don’t think you can do infrastructure, raise defense spending, do a tax cut, keep Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security just as they are, and balance the budget. It’s just not possible,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a senior member of the House Budget Committee. “Sooner or later, they’re going to come to grips with it because the numbers force you to.”

Duh.

If designed properly, tax cuts could be stimulative, but it takes a leap of faith to think that faster economic growth would recoup all the lost revenue. Carefully designed deregulation of the healthcare, banking, telecommunications and energy sectors could promote growth as well, although not without some offsetting risks and costs. Even if economic growth does rebound, it will likely trigger inflation and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. There are no magical policy levers that will allow the U.S. to fulfill all of Trump’s promises without running up deficits and the national debt.

My hunch is that the GOPs in Congress can water down the more fiscally irresponsible of Trump’s plans but won’t stop them all. Trump will blame the resulting deficits on Obama, just as Obama blamed his deficits on Bush. Words won’t change anything. Boomergeddon is coming. The only question is when.

More Hidden Deficits: Bad Bridges and Bad Metro

Virginia has its share of bad bridges.

Bad bridges. Image source: USA Today

Update on America’s hidden deficits: Nearly 56,000 bridges across the country are structurally unsound, according to the American Road and Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA), as reported by USA Today.

More than one in four of the bad bridges are at least 50 years old and have never had major reconstruction work, according to the ARTBA analysis. Thirteen thousand are along interstates that need replacement, widening or major reconstruction. Virginia falls in the middle tier of states where the percentage of bad bridges ranges between 5% and 8.9%.

Don’t county on the federal government for help — unless the Trump administration moves ahead on its fiscally unsustainable $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan. The U.S. highway trust fund spends $10 billion a year more than it takes in. The USA Today article did not say how much it would cost the country to remedy the structural deficiencies.

Bacon’s bottom line: Welcome to the American way of building infrastructure. Uncle Sam subsidizes the up-front costs and the fifty states eagerly jump on board. Forty or fifty years later, the bridges wear out. The states haven’t salted away any money to fix them, and the feds say,” So, sorry, we only fund construction, not maintenance and repairs.”

If you want to build roads, bridges, highways, airports, and mass transit, you need a plan for long-term financing. Otherwise, you’re just creating a huge problem for the next generation. Eventually, the bills come due. If we can’t afford to fix what we’ve already built, we have no business building new stuff we can’t afford.

But we build new stuff anyway. A case in point comes from Loudoun Now: New estimates suggest that Loudoun County’s payments to the Washington Metro could run as much as $27.9 million higher than expected — double what was expected. (The number may be somewhat overstated because it includes the cost of a bus service, which Loudoun is already providing.)

Loudoun doesn’t have a station on the Metro Silver Line yet, but it will in a couple of years when Phase 2 is complete, and it will have to start paying its share of operations and capital costs. Unfortunately for Loudoun — and this was entirely predictable because METRO’s fiscal ills have been well known for years — METRO needs much more money than in the past to compensate for decades of under-funding and scrimped maintenance.

METRO’s problem has been brewing for decades. Fiscal conservatives have been sounding the warning for years and years. Government officials been making financial projections that everyone knows, or should know, have no basis in reality. But everyone pretends everything is fine to keep the gravy train rolling.

If it’s any consolation, $28 million is no big deal in a county budget that runs $2.4 billion a year, says county finance committee Chairman Matthew F. Letourneau. who also represents the county on the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission. “We’re the jurisdiction that’s building $35 million in elementary schools ever year.”

Hmmm…. I wonder if the county is socking away any money for maintenance, repairs and replacement of all those elementary schools. I would be astonished if it is.

Here’s an Idea — Let’s Impose Unfunded Mandates on Shrinking School Districts

Does it make sense to impose unfunded mandates on jurisdictions with shrinking school populations?

Dozens of Virginia localities have lost population since 2010. Does it make sense to impose unfunded mandates on jurisdictions with shrinking tax base and school enrollment?

There seems to be no end to the ideas that Do Gooders have to improve conditions in Virginia’s schools. And there’s always someone in the General Assembly willing to submit a bill to force Virginia school districts to adopt those feel-good ideas without providing any money to pay for them.

This year, the Do Gooders have backed unfunded mandates that would require every school in Virginia to hire a nurse and every school district in the state to hire a dyslexia adviser. I have no quarrel with the aspiration of employing more nurses and dyslexia advisers in our schools. But I do take issue with enacting bills that would impose those priorities over those of local school boards, many of which are grappling with shrinking budgets and all of which have a keener insight into local needs than anyone in Richmond.

Fortunately, the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Elementary and Secondary Education killed HB 1757, the nurse bill, recognizing that unfunded mandates create fiscal hardship for  local school divisions, reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

The Virginia Association of School Nurses said the state has one school nurse per 830 students. The bill would have mandated a ratio of one nurse per 550 students. Children need the service of trained professionals to deal with a host of medical conditions, the nurses argued. Ailments range from Type 1 diabetes to seizures, asthma and severe allergies. Some school districts put a nurse in every school. But some have other priorities. Small districts would be especially hard-pressed to meet the standard.

Another bill, HB 2395, would require every school district to staff a dyslexia specialist. The Dyslexia Research Institute contends that 10% to 15% of the U.S. population has the learning disability, but only one in twenty dyslexics are recognized and receive assistance. The syndrome interferes with children’s ability to learn how to read.

In this instance, reports the Times-Dispatch, the House Appropriations subcommittee approved the bill, which follows a law enacted last year that required new teachers to receive training in identifying and dealing with dyslexia.

Larger school districts already maintain dyslexia specialists. Here’s my question: What’s different between an unfunded mandate for hiring dyslexia specialists and an unfunded mandate for hiring school nurses? Perhaps the price tag is smaller — a single dyslexia specialist costs less than multiple school nurses. But the underlying principle is the same — the General Assembly is imposing its priorities upon local school boards.

While all this is going on, lawmakers are grappling with the financial problems experienced by shrinking school divisions. As coincidence would have it, the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia, has just published  its latest population data. As can be seen in the map above, dozens of localities have lost population since 2010. Presumably that population decline is matched by a decline in school population.

According to a third article in today’s Times-Dispatch, 39 localities have lost either 1,000 students or 20% of their enrollment between 2006 and 2016. Lower enrollments mean less state support for schools. The House Appropriations Committee is considering a bill that would scrape up $8.6 million to provide relief for those jurisdictions on the grounds that they are too small to offset the loss of state revenue by consolidating services and facilities.

In what world does it make sense to impose a new unfunded mandate — in this case, the dyslexia expert — upon these localities?