Professor
Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center
for Politics, has released an overview of
Virginia
Votes 2003, the latest chapter in the
comprehensive Virginia Votes series cataloging the Commonwealth's
elections since 1969. Among other information, the
latest edition -- with an expected release
date of January 2004 -- offers data and analyses
from the 2003 General Assembly elections
including:
-
2003 ties
for a record number of unopposed
elections in modern times.
-
Margins
of victory high as Democrats gained in House,
Republicans in Senate.
-
Modest
overall legislative turnover.
-
Decrease
in women’s representation in General
Assembly.
-
Marginal
Increase in African-American representation.
-
Republicans
outspend Democrats, campaign spending
declines.
"In
a state with an election every year, it is unreasonable
to expect intense competition each November," said
Sabato. "But Virginia’s 2003 General Assembly contests tried the
patience of any who believe in representative
democracy."
I. 2003
Ties for a Record Number of Unopposed Elections in
Modern Times.
The
number of unopposed General Assembly elections
tied a modern record of 64 percent set in 1987.
In addition, incumbent reelection rates were also
up. In the House, 97.8 percent of incumbents who
sought reelection won, while in the Senate an
incredible 100 percent of incumbents seeking
reelection retained their posts. (See Figure 1)
In
addition to the lack of competition, Sabato also
noted that voter turnout was extremely low:
"Viewed in terms of the entire adult
population, registered and unregistered, the
turnout was even more miserable, with well under a
quarter of the voting-age population going to the
polls (23.6 percentage).” (See Figure 2)
II.
Margins of Victory High as Democrats Gain in
House,
Republicans Gain in Senate
As
if the high incumbency reelection rates were not
enough, there were precious few close races in
2003. In the Senate, there were only four contests
where winners took less than 55 percent, the
traditional marker for a landslide. In the House,
only nine winning candidates received less than
the 55 percent landslide margin.
In
2003 Democrats gained three seats in the House of
Delegates, bringing their number there from an
embarrassingly small 34, their all-time post-Civil
War low, to 37. Remarkably, the last previous
instance when the Democrats added to their House
contingent was in the 1975 election, fully 28
years ago, when they Democrats captured 78 House
seats compared to the 65 they had held in 1973.
Republicans
picked up a seat in the Senate due to the 2001
redistricting, as Jeannemarie Devolites replaced
retiring Senator and former Congresswoman Leslie
Byrne, leaving Democrats with just 16 seats --
again, a post-Civil War low for the once-mighty
Democratic Party. Democrats have not gained seats
in the Senate since the election of 1983, when
they added one for a total of 32 out of 40.
In
2003, the Democrats held the Republicans to their
smallest plurality of votes in the 52 two-party
contested districts since 1997. Democrats
secured 47.9 percent of the votes to the GOP’s
51.5 percent. (Both houses were included when
compiling these data.)
III.
Modest Legislative Turnover
The
legislative turnover rate - the vacancy of
legislative seats for all reasons, including defeat,
retirement, and death - was quite modest in 2003. Out
of 140 seats, just 15 will have new occupants, a
number lower than 14 of the 20 modern legislative
elections.
IV.
Women’s Representation in General Assembly
Decreases
Though
the number of women in the Senate actually
increased by one overall, the number of women in
the House of Delegates declined from 15 to 12. These
numbers drop Virginia
to 44th in the nation in terms of
women’s representation in the legislature.
(See Figure 3.)
V. African-American Representation
Marginally Increases.
As expected, African-American
representation in the House increased by one (Onzlee
Ware of Roanoke).
All
Democratic nominees for the seats of retiring
African-American legislators were elected. No black Republicans won seats. There are now 5 black state senators and
11 black state delegates - a total of 11.4% of the
General Assembly.
VI.
Republicans Outspend Democrats; Campaign Spending
Declines
The
Republicans walloped the Democrats in the warchest
department. In all 140 districts, the major party
candidates spent a combined $26.1 million, with
the GOP nominees
outspending the Democrats by over 59 percent to 41
percent.
Only once before, in 1999,
had
the GOP outspent the Democrats, by the small
margin of 52 percent to 46 percent. Interestingly, the 40 Senate
districts produced expenditures of $13.6 million,
while the much more numerous 100 House districts
cost a lesser $12.8 million.
Said Sabato: “The reversal of fortune in
the money game is clearly related to party control
of the legislature, and Democrats can count on
being substantially outspent for the foreseeable
future
The
one place where Democrats came closer to being
financially competitive was in the 33
party-contested House districts, where they were
outspent by only 53.5 percent to 46.5 percent.
Much of this was due to Gov. Mark Warner’s
careful targeting of large sums to competitive
Democratic House candidates - a strategy that
produced a net gain of three House seats for
Democrats.
Surprisingly,
Sabato noted, the cash totals just recounted
represent a decline in spending from the
previous election. In 1999, the last time the
entire legislature was on the ballot, the total
spent in all 140 races was $27.8 million - almost
$2 million greater than in 2003. Similarly, in 1999, the 100 House contests
cost a total of $16.4 million, more than 2003’s
$12.8 million.
“Declining
competition due to safer seats via redistricting
may well reduce campaign expenditures even in the
fewer seats that are lucky enough to have a
two-party contest,” Sabato said.
Conclusion
“An
old country song included this blues-tinged lyric:
‘Not much to remember, not much to forget.’
And that may be the best way to sum up the
anything-but-
historic 2003 Virginia General
Assembly elections. At least for now, competition
has been effectively drained from most districts,
and the November legislative results are as
predictable as in the long-ago days of Byrd
Organization domination,” concluded Sabato.
“This
may not be good for Virginia, of course. Competition is a wholesome element in
virtually every sector of life, and one can argue
that better government results when no party can
take its control of the legislature for granted.
However powerful this argument, the debate will
probably be academic until the people of Virginia
decide to insist upon some form of non-partisan or
bipartisan redistricting. Nothing short of such a
considerable reform will be likely to re-inject
vigor, excitement, and constructive uncertainty
into this state’s elections for the General
Assembly.”