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Whoah,
there. Don't pin me down |
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Handicapping
the Referendum
Assuming
residents vote their narrow self
interests, approval of the sales tax
referendum in
Northern Virginia
looks like a better
bet than the one in Hampton
Roads.
Strip
away the special interests, the fund raising and the
ad campaigns. Ignore the appeals to the common
good, and blank out the endless point-counterpoint
arguments. Just zoom in on voters’ raw self
interest. When election day comes, how will the
citizens of Northern Virginia
and Hampton Roads vote on local referenda to boost
the sales tax for local transportation projects?
I’m
no pollster, and I’m too chicken to forecast the
outlook of either referendum. But I do think it
likely that, unless given some lofty moral pretext to do otherwise,
voters will be guided by the simple logic,
“What’s in it for me?” Assuming that such short-term,
self-interested thinking prevails
on Nov. 5, the odds look
considerably better for a “yes” vote
in
Northern
Virginia
than in Hampton Roads.
In
Northern
Virginia,
traffic congestion is hands down the biggest
political issue in the region. Viewed from the
perspective of dry statistics, though, it’s hard to see what all the fuss is
about. (My argument may seem counter-intuitive for a
moment, but hang in there. You'll see where I'm
going.)
Northern Virginians
don’t spend significantly more time commuting to
work than anyone else in the state. Oh, sure, we've
heard the horror stories. And, no question, Northern
Virginians think their roads are going to
hell in a hand basket. But their perceptions are not
entirely backed up by the facts.
According
to the 2000 Census, Northern Virginians took marginally longer to drive to work on average in
2000 than they did a decade before, but the
difference is hardly cataclysmic. Statewide, Virginians spent 14
percent longer driving to work in 2000 than they did
in 1990, for an
average commute of 27 minutes. But for
Northern Virginia’s
most populous localities – Fairfax, Loudoun and
Prince William – the time spent commuting
increased by five percent or less.
Northern
Virginia Commutes
|
(Ranked
by % change in average time it took, in minutes, to
drive to work, 1990-2000)
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
Change |
Rank |
Alexandria |
25.1 |
29.7 |
18.3% |
68 |
Fairfax (city) |
25.5 |
30.1 |
18.2% |
71 |
Arlington |
23.6 |
27.3 |
15.7% |
91 |
Manassas
Park |
31.1 |
35.6 |
14.5% |
98 |
Virginia |
23.7 |
27.0 |
13.9% |
-
|
Manassas |
30.7 |
32.4 |
5.7% |
127 |
Fairfax |
29.4 |
30.7 |
4.4% |
128 |
Falls
Church |
25.4 |
26.4 |
3.7% |
129 |
Prince
William |
35.9 |
36.9 |
2.8% |
131 |
Loudoun |
30.5 |
30.8 |
0.9% |
133 |
Rank:
out of 134 Virginia cities and counties.
Commuting times
increased at a more rapid clip in other parts of Virginia.
Sixty-seven out of Virginia’s
134 jurisdictions saw their drives lengthen at a
faster rate than did
Alexandria,
the worst-off Northern
Virginia
locality. Most of these were small cities and rural
localities, presumably where many residents found
themselves traveling greater distances to find work.
Ranked
differently, by the absolute length of time it
takes to get to work, Northern
Virginians
do appear to be more stressed -- but only modestly
so. Clearly, Northern
Virginians
spend more time getting to work than residents
of
Virginia’s
other major urban areas, Hampton Roads and Norfolk.
But it’s not as if Northern
Virginians
have no company in this regard. In fact, inhabitants
of 13 other jurisdictions take longer to get to work
than residents of Prince
William
County,
Northern
Virginia's champion road
warriors.
Northern
Virginia Commutes
|
(Ranked
by average time, in minutes, it took to drive to work, 2000) |
|
1990 |
2000 |
Change |
Rank |
Prince
William |
35.9 |
36.9 |
2.8% |
14 |
Manassas
Park |
31.1 |
35.6 |
14.5% |
18 |
Manassas |
30.7 |
32.4 |
5.7% |
35 |
Loudoun |
30.5 |
30.8 |
0.9% |
43 |
Fairfax |
29.4 |
30.7 |
4.4% |
44 |
Fairfax
(city) |
25.5 |
30.1 |
18.2% |
47 |
Alexandria |
25.1 |
29.7 |
18.3% |
50 |
Arlington |
23.6 |
27.3 |
15.7% |
63 |
Virginia |
23.7 |
27.0 |
13.9% |
-
|
Falls
Church |
25.4 |
26.4 |
3.7% |
72 |
Focus
for a moment on Fairfax
County,
home to half of all
Northern
Virginians.
Residents of Virginia’s
most populous locality spend only 3.7 minutes more
per day driving to work than the average Virginian
-- or 7.4 minutes round trip. What’s more, that
represented a mere 1.3-minute longer commute in 2000
over the time it took 10 years previously. Those
numbers hardly seem the raw material for massive
voter discontent. If we based our analysis on those
statistics alone, I would not hesitate to predict a
thumbs-down vote this November.
But
that’s not the whole story. The difference between
Fairfax and, say, Mathews County is that Fairfaxites endure commutes at lower speeds in
frustrating, stop-and-go conditions, while the
Mathusians drive greater distances under less
aggravating conditions. Additionally, the
unpredictable nature of traffic congestion in Northern
Virginia
is such that Fairfaxites must make greater
allowances for uncertainty: The trip usually
takes 30 minutes, but the typical commuter must
allow 45 minutes in case there’s a wreck on the
Interstate.
Furthermore,
Northern
Virginians
earn higher salaries and place a greater premium on
their time. According to the Texas Transportation
Institute, the costs of traffic congestion,
including time wasted and gasoline consumed in
idleness, amounts to $1,595 per traveler – or $655
per capita -- in the
Washington,
D.C.,
metropolitan area.
Thus,
although Northern Virginia commuting times are only
a little longer than those of other Virginians, the level of
frustration and the implicit cost is considerably higher.
By hiking the sales tax by ½
percent, the referendum would raise about $130 million annually across
the region
– and cost residents about $72 per capita. Although
proponents concede that the revenue would “barely
dent the region’s annual shortfall,” they
can advance a plausible argument[1]
that the projects would at least keep conditions
from getting materially worse than if the region did nothing.
To
sum up the choice facing Northern Virginians, voters can ax the sales tax increase, in
effect preserving the status quo, or pony up an
estimated $72 per person
annually in sales taxes for projects designed to
take a nick out of the $655 annual “congestion tax.” The
frustration is real. The sense that something, anything,
must be done is palpable. The one-to-nine trade-off of
pain for potential gain may prove persuasive to a majority
of voters.
The
calculus is considerably different in Hampton Roads.
For starters, Hampton Roadsters don’t take nearly
as long as their Northern Virginia
brethren to get to work – or as long as most other
Virginians, for that matter.
Hampton
Roads Commutes |
(Ranked
by average time, in minutes it took to drive to work, 2000) |
|
1990 |
2000 |
Change |
Rank |
Suffolk
City |
23.8 |
27.3 |
14.7% |
65 |
Virginia |
23.7 |
27.0 |
13.9% |
-
|
Chesapeake |
22.8 |
25.1 |
10.0% |
80 |
James
City |
21.0 |
24.6 |
17.3% |
82 |
Poquoson |
20.4 |
24.0 |
17.5% |
87 |
Virginia
Beach |
22.2 |
23.9 |
7.6% |
88 |
Portsmouth |
20.9 |
23.8 |
13.8% |
89 |
York |
20.2 |
23.7 |
17.5% |
91 |
Newport
News |
19.4 |
23.0 |
18.6% |
99 |
Hampton |
18.7 |
21.8 |
16.3% |
107 |
Norfolk |
20.0 |
21.7 |
8.6% |
109 |
Williamsburg |
11.8 |
18.0 |
52.0% |
127 |
On
average, the daily haul to and from work in Hampton
Roads is about 15 minutes shorter than in Northern
Virginia, and comparable to the Richmond region,
where there is no discernible movement to raise the
sales tax whatsoever.
Someone
could try arguing that traffic isn't so bad now but
it's getting worse very quickly. Commuting times in seven
of the region’s 11 localities, led by
Willliamsburg, racked up bigger increases during the
1990s than the state average. But such an argument
wouldn't stand up. All but one of
these localities are situated on the Peninsula,
which has been afflicted in recent years by
seemingly endless construction work on Interstate
64. South of the river where two thirds of the
population resides, highways have been largely
spared the ravages of construction delays. Indeed,
Norfolk and Virginia Beach, the region's two most
populous localities, logged increases
in commuting time considerably below
the state average.
Hampton
Roads Commutes
|
(Ranked
by % increase in average time, in minutes, it
took to drive to work, 1990-2000)
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
Change |
Rank |
Williamsburg |
11.8 |
18.0 |
52.0% |
2 |
Newport
News |
19.4 |
23.0 |
18.6% |
67 |
Poqouson |
20.4 |
24.0 |
17.5% |
74 |
James
City |
21.0 |
24.6 |
17.3% |
76 |
York |
20.2 |
23.7 |
17.5% |
75 |
Hampton |
18.7 |
21.8 |
16.3% |
86 |
Suffolk |
23.8 |
27.3 |
14.7% |
94 |
Virginia |
23.7 |
27.0 |
13.9% |
-
|
Portsmouth |
20.9 |
23.8 |
13.8% |
105 |
Chesapeake |
22.8 |
25.1 |
10.0% |
117 |
Norfolk |
20.0 |
21.7 |
8.6% |
120 |
Virginia
Beach |
22.2 |
23.9 |
7.6% |
122 |
When
Hampton Roads voters go to the polls, they will face
the following predicament. Congestion can be difficult,
particularly around the Hampton Roads bridge-tunnel,
which chokes up at frequent but unpredictable
intervals. On the other hand, commuting times really
aren't so bad compared to other parts of Virginia.
Approving the referendum would boost the sales tax
by a full percent, exempting food and drug
purchases. The tax would cost about $60
million annually, about $40 per person, according to the Hampton
Roads Partnership. The money would pay for projects
designed to address an estimated
$230 per capita congestion cost, as calculated by the
Texas Transportation Institute.
Put
another way, one dollar in sales tax offers the
prospect to mitigate up to six dollars in
“congestion tax." In terms of perceived, what’s-in-it-for-me
value, that trade-off compares unfavorably to the Northern
Virginia
ratio of one
to nine.
The
Hampton Roads tax backers have a more difficult
selling proposition than their counterparts in Northern Virginia. The centerpiece of the transportation package is a third
crossing over Hampton Roads, linking Norfolk
and Newport
News.
This enormous project would simulate the economy by
making possible the continued
expansion of port facilities, provide an additional
hurricane evacuation route, and bind the two
sides of the water more closely. A more
cohesive regional identity, boosters contend, would make the Hampton
Roads MSA more competitive in the
economic-development arena.
From
the perspective of the long-term health of the
community, these are all sound reasons for building the third
crossing. Whether they appeal to
the transient population of Hampton Roads, however,
is questionable. Citizens would begin paying the tax
almost immediately, while the benefits of the
transportation projects would not be felt until
construction was complete years from
now -- in many cases after the voter/taxpayer had
moved on. Hampton
Roadsters haven’t reached the fever pitch of
agitation over traffic that Northern
Virginians
have, and they aren't as desperate for a
"solution." The referendum to add a one-percent sales tax
will be a harder sell.
Of
course, few
voters will ever see the U.S. Census data I've used
in this analysis. Few will bother to
think about the issues systematically. They'll hear
a lot of conflicting views in the media,
then base their decision on the information
available to them. How long does it take them
to get to work? How frustrated do they get by
congestion-related delays? Will any of the identified
transportation projects make their life
easier? How squeezed do they feel by taxes
this year?
I’ll
take the coward’s way out and
forego any predictions regarding success or failure
of either referenda. But I
will venture this prediction, win or lose, Northern
Virginians
will cast a larger percentage of “yes” ballots
than will voters in Hampton Roads.
--
October
28, 2002
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