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Is
Donald McEachin going to be a contestant on a new
reality show for political survivors? Apparently,
so. His 44-vote upset win over Del. Floyd Miles
in the Democratic primary last Tuesday has become a
topic of much discussion in certain national
media and political circles based on the callers to
my cell phone these past few days.
I
know what you are thinking since I thunk the same
thing when they called: Why would the outcome
of a Democratic Party primary in the 74th Delegate
district of Virginia this past June 14th be of
interest to media types and aides-de-camp to
political figures outside of the Old Dominion?
Indeed,
the interest is so intense that I've gotten calls
from a few folks who claimed to be calling for other
folks who usually take my name in vain,
especially since getting all that publicity over my
articles on Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich and of
course my piece on the meaning of a Democratic
presidency in the Wall Street Journal.
Initially,
I figured this was merely a case of the David
vs. Goliath thing, the rebel beating the Democratic
Establishment, the kind of story that many in
politics enjoy irrespective of the winner. These
phone callers all said that the word in Washington
and the Democratic National Committee was that Miles
was going to win. But Miles had lost and they wanted
to know the reason.
My
initial reaction was simply that, in their minds,
David had won and so they wanted to get the inside
story from someone they had heard played a role in
defeating Goliath. But Miles as Goliath?
I
didn't see it that way, yet I could understand how
they could. Del. Miles was the incumbent, the most
prominent African-American on the most powerful
committee in the Virginia House of Delegates, the
House Appropriations Committee. Miles was strongly
backed by Governor Warner, the VA DEM party
establishment, the Warner money machine--the GUV
gave Miles $10,000, a record contribution for that
type in a DEM party primary ever--the Black
Legislative Caucus, the Richmond Free Press
and the House Democratic Caucus. They put a record
amount of money, time and an anti-McEachin whisper
campaign into backing Miles.
So,
yes, as a strategy person, I did find it a fascinating
race, and the only time such a major
African-American incumbent has been defeated in a
primary in a majority black district.
Indeed,
for me, it was a doubly fascinating race. Fourteen
years before, I was the Chairman of the Democratic
Party, and Don McEachin was challenging Del.
Frank Hall, now the Democratic Minority leader, in a
primary in a different district. I was Hall's key
strategy guy and McEachin publicly criticized me for
taking sides in an intraparty contest. But Frank was
a friend who said he really needed the help.
Since
then, I have gotten know Donald and have seen how
gutsy and principled he can be in tough situations.
When Hall opposed my 2003-2003 efforts to reform
Richmond with what became known as the Elected Mayor
Referendum, Donald McEachin stood with me despite
being called an Uncle Tom--I was accused of being
anti-black and worse by Sen. Henry Marsh and others.
So,
this year, with Frank being one of the leaders of
the anti-McEachin forces, I have to say it was my
chance to even up the scales of political justice.
But
this is all local political lore. So I asked my
national cell phone callers,, what is the big deal
nationally?
Are
you kidding, they answered as if I were playing Jim
Carey in the movie Dumb and Dumber (bad movie, by
the way). Don't you get it, they asked me.
Not
really, I answered. Sure, there was the Warner
angle, with Warner Inc. putting all of its
statewide muscle behind Miles, with Miles/Warner
brochures touting how Democrats were greatly
benefiting from the way things were going in
Virginia. And, yes, McEachin challenged this
Miles/Warner, "Don't worry, be happy,"
song taken from the 1988 Bush41 campaign.
But
incumbents usually defend the status quo, while
challengers say it is time for a change. This is
hardly news of a national dimension. So I asked:
What is your real interest here, folks?
My
national telephone callers avoided answering.
They just wanted to know what "strategy I
had used" to help McEachin win a races that,
some "gloating" key Virginia Democrats had
told them, was "in the bag for Miles" by
some "gloating" key Virginia Democrats.
I
said: Give me a break. There is no way anyone could
have said the election was "in the bag"
for Miles. Admittedly, based on my analysis of the
McEachin poll overlaid over the voting numbers in
the primary, Miles should have gotten between 52 to
55 percent.
This
may have been a surprise to my national folks, but
hardly to me or to Democratic nominee McEachin, as
we had talked for weeks about what could happen
under different turnout scenarios.
Miles
had an unprecedented amount of money for this kind
of contest, a roughly 2-1 edge over
McEachin, not including all the in-kind support from
the Virginia Democratic Party and the Governor's
folks on down. Heck, they even refused to give
McEachin a list of Democrats in the district, which
cost us a good 200 votes, according to my
calculations.
Do
the math on the voter statistics, and you'd also
think that Miles should have won. His home base in
Charles City County voted more than double
the 2001 primary turnout even though, as we
know, the turnout in the June 14th 2005 Democratic
primary statewide was down by 50 percent or so.
Double!
But
this did not catch us by surprise, as I had warned
McEachin that a double turnout for Miles in Charles
City County would not be unprecedented. My analysis
gave Miles at least 75 percent of this turnout. That
meant that McEachin had to do something never before
done in a primary in Henrico County (the other major
part of the district): He had to win about 60
percent of the vote and get the turnout up relative
to what it might otherwise be, given the minimal
interest that Henrico voters were expected to
show in the statewide Democratic primary for Lt.
Governor.
Unfortunately, raising
the turnout in such a diffuse and relatively
unconnected suburban area such as Henrico County is
very hard and something, quite frankly, that neither
Democrats nor Republicans have mastered. Indeed, the
turnout in the GOP primary statewide also held this
past June 14th, a party that is centered in good
measure on suburban voter, was also way below
expectations, despite huge spending and media
coverage of the GOP primary compared to virtually no
coverage to the McEachin vs Miles race. To win
60 percent of Henrico Democrats while running
against an incumbent backed by a sitting Democratic
governor and the Democratic political/money machine,
McEachin had his work cut out for him.
But
again: This is all local stuff. What relevance could
it have nationally? Paul, they asked: What issue
matrix did you in the McEachin camp use?
Like
smart strategy junkies, they wanted to know what was
connecting with voters that could overcome money,
political muscle and the Establishment. The answer
was easy: McEachin's theme was that he was the
candidate representing Democratic values, not Del.
Miles.
For
some reason, the Miles campaign had let us make this
general pitch without any real counter-punch, or so
it seemed to me.
McEachin
built his case on several issues.
One involved
several votes that Mr. Miles had made in favor of
several new laws, all signed by Governor Warner and
backed by the Democratic Party Establishment, allowing
guns on school property and making it harder for
local police to stop illegal gun sales at gun shows.
To
be honest, no one had really known about these new
laws until the campaign had started. When I
first realized this situation, it seemed hard to
believe. But a little research showed that despite
campaign promises to the contrary, the Governor, and
the Democratic Party Establishment had been trying
to "make nice" with the NRA and others to
prove they weren't "liberal".
I
have always respected the NRA as a political force
and in all my campaigns, we never had a problem with
the NRA. And in all these years, I don't recall the NRA
being focused on changing the law on these
particular matters.
Given
that the NRA has given Democratic Tim Kaine an F
in the 2005 Governor's race, and now is calling on
Kaine to pull one of his radio ads, it seems that
these new laws hardly did what Warner, Miles
and the DEM establishment had hoped.
Indeed,
quite the opposite. McEachin believed that it was
wrong for Democrats to vote to allow loaded guns on
school property and hamper local police efforts to
fight illegal gun sales. Of all his issues, this was
the one he championed the hardest.
The
national phone callers wanted to know: Did that work
at the polls? Yes, they did.
Another
issue that McEachin used to his advantage was taxes.
Miles supported raising taxes; McEachin said that
while state taxes are going up, the 74th district
has too many old trailers, not new facilities. He
wondered if, despite the claims of the Miles side, Democrats
were paying the higher taxes while others got the
better services. Clearly, voters agreed to some
extent.
Bottom
line: McEachin appealed to basic Democratic values
and made the case that despite the claims of the VA
DEM establishment, middle class voters and those
struggling up the ladder of success - the base of
the Democratic party - were being sold what
they call "Wolf Tickets."
McEachin
said simply: Anyone can pander to the GOP and make
it look like you are achieving something. But if
voters believed in the values of the Democratic
party on the issues, he asked them to send a
principled Democratic to Richmond to fight for the
people.
Very
interesting, my national callers said.
If
you say so, I answered.
Before
they hung up, two of them - the most political ones
- asked me this: Isn't it true that in 2001,
Democrats had said we didn't need any new laws on
guns, just better enforcement of existing laws?
I
said, yes, I had written those lines for candidate
Warner himself.
Then
it hit me: If Warner had kept that position, the two
gun bills that probably cost Miles his seat never
would have been an issue. How ironic, especially
since in 2001, Warner had criticized McEachin on the
gun issue.
Oh
really, the callers said.
So,
what does this all mean in the larger scheme of
things? I will leave it to all those who know so
much from the safety of their 20-20 hindsight.
The
McEachin campaign had to do it on the fly, hoping
they got it right in the heat of battle. I was happy
to be able to give them an idea or two that
hopefully either worked, or didn't mess up too
badly.
When
you win by 44 votes, you know you could have lost.
But the real lesson may be this: Certain issues
championed by Democratic Party leaders here in
Virginia didn't sit well with rank and file
Democratic voters in the 74th district. Does this
have meaning nationally?
Sure
it does. Issues matter, not personalities. Guns,
loaded or otherwise, have no place on school
property in Henrico County nor, one suspects, in a
whole lot of other counties and cities and towns in
America.
Apparently,
however, in hopes of getting votes and elected
office, some Democrats put our kids at risk. That
was wrong. And in this case, Floyd Miles paid the
political price.
--
June 20, 2005
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