A
GOP Opportunity
Democrats
want to use tax "restructuring" as a way
to raise revenue. Republicans should go to the
voters this fall promising to make it a way to reduce
the tax burden.
Here
is some unsolicited advice for Republican candidates
running for election to the General Assembly this
year: Define the debate over taxes and spending now.
The tax issue is
certain to be the dominant issue in the 2003
campaigns. Gov. Mark R. Warner has already announced
his intention to propose sweeping tax reform and to
increase state revenues. The Democrats running this
year will surely follow his lead.
As long as Warner
can define the issue as a long-overdue initiative to
reform the antiquated Virginia tax system, he has
Republicans on the defensive. But the public is less
concerned about modernizing Virginia tax laws than
it is about reducing the overall tax burden.
Warner, for his
part, seems less interested in modernization of the
system than in increasing tax revenues. If
modernization were his principal objective, he could
enhance his prospects of success on tax reform by
agreeing that the tax burden would not be higher as
a result of reform. He has already declared we will
not agree to that principle.
Republicans need to
stake out their own principled objectives on taxes
without delay. The details can come later.
The first
Republican principle should be that the tax burden
on the average family is already too high and should
be reduced. It’s not enough to talk about assuring
revenue neutrality and opposing an overall increase.
Let Warner and
liberal commentators complain that Virginia is not a
leader among states in per capita tax burden or in
spending for this or that program. Most voters
don’t care about such comparative ratings.
They care about how hard it is to make ends meet and
how state spending continues to rise faster than
family incomes.
Let Bill Clinton
campaign here as he did in 1997 when he called
Virginians who supported the car tax repeal
“selfish.” Virginians, by and large, still think
government is bloated and prefer program reform to
tax reform.
Democrats tend to
accept polling results showing public support for
higher taxes. These surveys have always been
suspect. Just a year ago, many legislators were
persuaded by opinion surveys indicating voter
support for a higher sales tax for new
transportation projects. The only results that
mattered on this question were the election results
in 2002 in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads where
voters decisively rejected the proposed sales tax
increases.
Republicans should
forget public opinion surveys and stake out their
own bold plan to revise the tax laws in Virginia.
Unless they pursue this bold initiative, they run
the risk of allowing Warner and the Democrats to
project themselves as the only true leaders on tax
matters.
When Republicans
force the tax debate to focus on broad principles
and the overall effect of taxes, they win. When they
allow the Democrats to focus on technical matters,
on state-by-state comparisons and on what Democrats
always insist is an under-funded array of state
programs, Republicans are at a disadvantage.
Voters want real
leadership on the tax issue, not more of the same
polemics. This is an extraordinary opportunity for
Republicans. Unlike other election campaigns in
which Democrats masqueraded as fiscal conservatives
promising not to raise taxes, the 2003 campaigns
begin with the two leading Virginia Democrats —
Warner and Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine — openly supporting
a tax increase.
The opportunity
won’t remain open for long. Republicans must
announce as soon as possible a bold, unifying
principle on state taxes that will guide them in the
next General Assembly.
-- March
17, 2003
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