General Assembly Grapevine

Fundamental differences between taxing and spending desires separate the House of Delegates and the Senate.  No one is saying “impasse” yet but it’s on many minds.  The House of Delegates is fairly united in its approach; but  the Senate is divided over what to do about the car tax, and five senators stand apart from the rest of their majority caucus.  Sound familiar?

No, it’s not John Chichester, Republican Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee being aided by four top allies in trying to impose higher taxes to balance the budget. It’s 2010 and Democratic Senate Finance head Chuck Colgan, who like Chichester is the President Pro Tem of the Senate, has four colleagues in his caucus standing with him and the new Governor.

The budget committees are to report their budgets next Sunday, February 21.  As of now they are $950 million apart.  Or are they?  At stake is reinstatement of the Car Tax. The Republicans controlling the House of Delegates are adamantly opposed as is the minority Senate Republican Caucus.  Most Senate Democrats want to see the Car Tax re-implemented thus freeing up the state money now spent on reimbursing localities for not collecting the  Car Tax, thereby cutting the state budget shortfall almost in half.   Most of them but not all. .

Standing in the way is Colgan and his partners.  Perhaps few remember it today but Colgan actually proposed eliminating the local Personal Property Tax on vehicles before it was a campaign slogan, bumper sticker and the article of faith for Jim Gilmore and the House Republicans who ran with him and on his coattails in 1997.

Colgan represents Prince William County, the least affluent locality in Northern Virginia and the bedroom community to many workers commuting to DC.  His attachment to the Car Tax relief is not just personal but political.

The political calculus of his cohorts is varied but similar.  Sources close to the Democratic Caucus tell Grapevine that those standing with Colgan include Roscoe Reynolds who represents an economically depressed and politically conservative Southside district.  Reynolds is always looking over his political shoulder and wisely so.

Another member of the new Gang of Five is freshman John Miller of Newport News.  Miller represents the most Republican district of any Democrat, and won election only because of a bruising Republican primary.   Phil Puckett from coal country is nervous as national Democrats and his Congressman, Rick Boucher , make political life difficult for him is his hardscrabble district.

Rounding out the quintet is defeated gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds.  His memory of what happens to Democratic candidates espousing higher taxes is still fresh.  Deeds has the additional challenge of representing a district with extremes of abundant wealth and entrenched poverty.  His populist tendencies take him at times to unpredictable places.

So speaking of unpredictable, who would have foreseen the reemergence of the Car Tax as a political issue, or a Gang of Five senators opposing most of their party, and instead supporting the position of the governor from the other party?

How will this new dynamic work itself out?  Not even the Grapevine has that clear a view into a crystal ball.