The New Look of Virginia High School Grads, Circa 2030

Lots of good data coming out of the retreats of the House and Senate appropriations committees yesterday and today… The chart above appeared in a presentation by April Kees, legislative fiscal analyst, to the Senate Finance Committee.

By 2030, whites will constitute a bare majority of high school graduates in Virginia. The percentage of blacks will shrink slightly, while percentages of Asians and Hispanics will soar.

Bacon’s bottom line: This is what college administrators are talking about when they allude to a challenging demographic future. The percentage of Hispanic students graduating from high school and populating the potentially college-bound population will grow by six percentage points, offsetting the seven-point decline in the percentage of whites. Insofar as whites tend to come from more affluent families, to attend better schools and to be better academically prepared than Hispanics, colleges are bracing for student bodies that need more remedial work and financial assistance.

On the other hand, Asian students tend to come from more affluent households and to be better prepared academically than all other ethnic groups, including whites. They could prove to be a mother lode for institutions looking for students with high SAT scores and no need of financial assistance.

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6 responses to “The New Look of Virginia High School Grads, Circa 2030

  1. I expect the academic-industrial complex will have collapsed by 2030. Cost/debt is not sustainable even at the state schools. College administrators most likely will have more pressing problems to contend with.

  2. I have seen Asian parents with their kids. I’ve seen Africa (from Africa, first or second generation) with their kids.
    They will do anything (and I’ve seen them work 2 full time jobs, 1 full and 1 part time) to get an education for those kids AND they will invest in them what is needed AND those kids will respond by going to the highest degree to grab any chance they can.
    Not surprised.

  3. Four year colleges should not be in the remediation business to start with.

    An obvious question is how does a kid get an SAT that will get him accepted at a college then he needs remediation?

    You’d think someone who need remediation would not get a good SAT score.

    So something is rotten in Denmark … but either way -if a kid cannot do College Level work he needs to go back to “pre” college and get up to snuff from way less expensive education services.

    The fact that 4yr Colleges are “accepting” enrollments from people who are categorically not ready for college – rather than rejecting them – tells you something about the Colleges themselves and their need to keep their enrollment numbers up and I say that no matter the demographics or ethnicity. No that many years ago – that was actually the case but the “good” SAT score for kids that need remediation needs to be looked at. Something is going on that is not good.

    Folks who are not ready for 4yr college – need to spend time at a Community College which is more appropriate and more cost-effective – and more likely to get the kid remediated and ready for the next 2 yrs.

    But Colleges are loathe to see their enrollments decrease and apparently will accept people who should not be there.

    • Larry – well stated. While many freshmen students might “retake” an important course that they took in high school, that is not remediation. Public colleges and private ones receiving taxpayer money should be required to report on the number of students taking remedial courses, the number of courses taken and the costs. That amount of costs, which should be audited, would be appropriately subtracted from the amount of taxpayer funding.

      And, yes, the path to higher education and a college degree would be well served in many cases by students going to community colleges.

  4. I guess that Asians include India and Africa? I have seen numbers with much more change predicted by 2030. I have been in a number of elementary schools in Fairfax and the number of whites is far less than 50%. In some cases it appears well below 40% And in many places across Virginia while %s do not change the actual number of whites will decline.
    And, the culture changes as in Fairfax a high %age of students on free lunch is the case today and growing. And, the % of school children in single parent homes is climbing and in some schools it is over 35%.
    Now Asians etc are much more likely to go to college but Hispanics are not.
    So the change will be much more of a challenge than those numbers show.

  5. “On the other hand, Asian students tend to come from more affluent households and to be better prepared academically than all other ethnic groups, including whites.”

    This sounds like the Asian – Americans are guilty of cultural appropriation of white privilege. Why wasn’t there a trigger warning? I am going to run off to my safe space right now!

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